18z TPC Suite Models

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GaryOBX
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18z TPC Suite Models

#1 Postby GaryOBX » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:41 pm

Oh my... things are starting to get ugly.

Image
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 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  HURRICANE ISABEL     (AL132003) ON 20030911  1800 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          030911  1800   030912  0600   030912  1800   030913  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    21.5N  54.9W   21.6N  56.0W   21.7N  57.0W   21.8N  58.2W
  BAMM    21.5N  54.9W   21.7N  56.1W   22.0N  57.2W   22.3N  58.3W
  A98E    21.5N  54.9W   21.8N  56.6W   21.9N  58.5W   21.8N  60.4W
  LBAR    21.5N  54.9W   21.8N  56.2W   22.1N  57.7W   22.0N  59.5W
  SHIP       135KTS         137KTS         138KTS         137KTS
  DSHP       135KTS         137KTS         138KTS         137KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          030913  1800   030914  1800   030915  1800   030916  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    21.9N  59.2W   22.3N  61.0W   22.5N  62.2W   23.1N  61.5W
  BAMM    22.6N  59.4W   23.8N  62.0W   24.9N  65.7W   25.9N  70.0W
  A98E    20.9N  62.4W   19.4N  66.6W   16.3N  70.1W   13.2N  71.4W
  LBAR    22.1N  61.3W   22.4N  65.6W   22.6N  68.8W   23.1N  70.5W
  SHIP       134KTS         116KTS          97KTS          77KTS
  DSHP       134KTS         116KTS          97KTS          77KTS


...sigh....
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weathergymnast
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#2 Postby weathergymnast » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:43 pm

A98e.. *snickers* Should we put on warning for south america?
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floydchaser
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#3 Postby floydchaser » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:47 pm

I've got to believe there's bad data in this run. I wouldn't put much stock in any of these solutions. Even BAMM medium starts moving it wnw-nw too early. 12z GFDL seems to have a good handle on the short term motion. Whether its dramatic northward curve is right remains to be seen.
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JCT777
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#4 Postby JCT777 » Thu Sep 11, 2003 2:06 pm

Agreed completely, floydchaser. And LOL weathergymnast! :lol: When was the last time that area got hit by a major hurricane? :wink:
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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#5 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Thu Sep 11, 2003 2:09 pm

This shows the same thing!

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html
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