ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
2. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO
FORECASTER STEWART
I'm not sure I understand what criteria they use to show possible formation, it might just be a level of organized vorticity.
.gif){kind=small}