Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

[HurricaneRyan]

I think it IS possible for at least one of the name lists to retire ALL of it's original names.

Which list do you think will do it first?

List 5 is my first choice: There are only 10 names remaining: Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy. And each time this list was used, at least one name got retired.

List 3 is my second choice: Although they didn't retire any names until 1999, the 2005 season knocked out the R, S, and W names as well as the D and K names. And we are certain that Irene will join them, to make it 8 of the original names retired. With only two rare letters left to get retired, T and V, and it IS possible as we know from Tomas last year, I think it can happen. There are also only a few early letter storms that were retired, so it's still easier to get some retired on this list than list 5.

I DO think it will happen eventually...we've already had three crazy seasons to get really active - 2005, 2010, and this year.

Here's how the scoreboard goes:

List 1: 7
List 2: 8
List 3: 7
List 4: 3
List 5: 10
List 6: 9

What do you think?

[bexar]

I think List 2:

It usually produced many major hurricanes and the most CV-originating systems.


least likely would be list 4:

It has only been up to Nadine ever.

[CrazyC83]

List 3 names that will still be original come 2017 (assuming Irene is retired, but not making any guesses on post-Lee storms):

Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Harvey, Jose, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince

Indeed, over half of them are early in the alphabet (7 of the first 10 letters). With the heart of the season here and the next 4 letters all being original, it is very possible at least 1 or 2 could join Irene in that group.

[CrazyC83]

Complete list of original names left:

List 1: Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
(Retired: Bob, David, Elena, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan)

List 2: Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
(Retired: Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch, Tomas)

List 3: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Harvey, Jose, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
(Retired: Dennis, Floyd, Irene, Katrina, Lenny, Rita, Stan, Wilma)

List 4: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
(Retired: Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Sandy)

List 5: Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastian, Tanya, Van, Wendy
(Retired: Alicia/Allison, Dean, Felix, Hugo, Iris/Ingrid, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne)

List 6: Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
(Retired: Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili, Paloma)

Updated to end of 2013 season

[Cyclenall]

My guess would be List 3. The 2005 season was the sound off for that one. Add to that the potential of this hurricane season in progress to really churn out some big ones and as CrazyC83 said, a good number are original and you have a contender.

[HurricaneRyan]

Complete list of original names left:

List 1: Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
(Retired: Bob, David, Elena, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan)

List 2: Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
(Retired: Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Julia, Mitch, Tomas)

List 3: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Harvey, Jose, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
(Retired: Dennis, Floyd, Irene*, Katrina, Lenny, Rita, Stan, Wilma)

List 4: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William
(Retired: Gilbert, Joan, Keith)

List 5: Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastian, Tanya, Van, Wendy
(Retired: Alicia/Allison, Dean, Felix, Hugo, Iris, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne)

List 6: Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
(Retired: Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili, Paloma)

*Assumption.

It's Jeanne not Julia.

[Category 5]

ALL of its original names?

None of them. You are never going to retire all 21 A-W.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

ALL of its original names?

None of them. You are never going to retire all 21 A-W.

Gee, "never" seems like an awfully long time.

I am sure mathematically speaking that it will probably be beyond the lifetimes of anyone living today before all 21 names in any of these lists are likely to be retired. But if these lists are maintained going forward over the centuries, there would have to come a time when one of them would have all 21 of its original names replaced.

[wxman57]

The only logical choice is List #3, as it is extremely difficult to get to the "W" storm in most seasons, much less have it retired. #3 has already retired the "W" storm, so it's way ahead of the other 5 lists. This would be true if the "W" storm was the only name retired and all other seasons had all but the "W" storm retired, most likely. As a bonus, list #3 also has retired the "R" and "S" storms, two letters rarely reached in most seasons. Can't retire an R, S or W storm if there are 16 or fewer storms in a season.

[CrazyC83]

The only logical choice is List #3, as it is extremely difficult to get to the "W" storm in most seasons, much less have it retired. #3 has already retired the "W" storm, so it's way ahead of the other 5 lists. This would be true if the "W" storm was the only name retired and all other seasons had all but the "W" storm retired, most likely. As a bonus, list #3 also has retired the "R" and "S" storms, two letters rarely reached in most seasons. Can't retire an R, S or W storm if there are 16 or fewer storms in a season.

Tammy and Vince still need to be retired somehow.

At this point, it looks like only Irene will be retired in 2011 though...the last season with one retired name was 2000.

[AJC3]

None of us will be alive to see how this turns out. In fact, the great-great-great-grandmother of the clairvoyant who will need to contact me after I'm dead to let me know which list winds up retiring all its names first hasn't been born yet.

Aside from that, you really can't choose any other list than 3 to be at least the earliest to come close (say within 3 names), for reasons already stated.

[HURAKAN]

Some people need a storm in the Atlantic ASAP

[CrazyC83]

I highly doubt any names will be retired for 2013 though...

[HurricaneRyan]

I highly doubt any names will be retired for 2013 though...

This.

The only candidate is Ingrid and that's a replacement name.

[CrazyC83]

I highly doubt any names will be retired for 2013 though...

This.

The only candidate is Ingrid and that's a replacement name.

We'd have to get to Pablo to find the next original name on this current list - and that is 4 storms from now, due to efficiency in getting mid-alphabet names retired, especially in 1995 but also in 2001 and 2007. We would need an extraordinarily active end to the season to get there.

[CrazyC83]

We got rid of Ingrid, but it doesn't add any new original names to the retirement list. For 2014, likely will need to look to the early part of the alphabet.

[Hurricanehink]

We got rid of Ingrid, but it doesn't add any new original names to the retirement list. For 2014, likely will need to look to the early part of the alphabet.

Which could happen because it's supposed to be a pretty quiet season.

[CrazyC83]

For the 2014 list, only four original names remain in the first half of the alphabet - Arthur, Bertha, Edouard and Josephine. So it might be tough to add...

[HurricaneRyan]

For the 2014 list, only four original names remain in the first half of the alphabet - Arthur, Bertha, Edouard and Josephine. So it might be tough to add...

Edouard would be the best bet then.

[HurricaneRyan]

So much has happened in 4 years.

List 1 remains at the same amount of retired original names - with two replacements getting a third generation name
List 2 has since retired Otto, and 12 original names remain,
List 3 now has only 10 original names left. - 5 in the front, 5 in the second half.

That list in my opinion, is most likely to get closest to retiring all of its original names during our lifetime. Arlene, Bret, Tammy and Vince will be the hardest to retire. Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia and Philippe will have better chances.