WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

[HURAKAN]

rapidly intensifying

[euro6208]

To our neighboring micronesian neighbors...

037
WWPQ80 PGUM 170025
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1025 AM CHST THU OCT 17 2013

PMZ171-171200-
YAP-
1025 AM CHST THU OCT 17 2013

...INCLEMENT WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS YAP STATE...

TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO (26W) IS CENTERED NEAR 11N143E...WHICH IS

345 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP
240 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI AND
190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FAIS.

TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY HEAD TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND UP TO 130 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF YAP STATE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH WINDS INCREASING AS TROPICAL STORM
FRANCISCO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. CHOPPY SEAS AND BUILDING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

YAP...WOLEAI...SATAWAL AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED WIND OF 15 TO 20
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE ANTICIPATED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET BY SATURDAY.

ULITHI...FAIS...FARAULEP AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...
EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT ARE ANTICIPATED IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET TODAY WILL DECREASE TO 9 TO
12 FEET BY SATURDAY.

SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR SMALL BOATS AND INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAZARDOUS SURF IS
ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. FOR YAP AND SURROUNDING
WATERS PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

RESIDENTS IN YAP STATE ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
AND INSTRUCTIONS AVAILABLE FROM THEIR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE AND RADIO STATIONS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO...PLEASE REFER TO
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPQ33 PGUM.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND UPDATE THIS SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS NEEDED.

$$

W.AYDLETT

[cycloneye]

JMA stays as STS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1327 FRANCISCO (1327)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 11.0N 142.6E FAIR
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 13.4N 142.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 190000UTC 16.4N 141.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 200000UTC 18.7N 138.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[stormkite]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
799
WTPQ83 PGUM 162311
HLSPQ3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
911 AM CHST THU OCT 17 2013

...TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO SLOWING DOWN SOUTHWEST OF GUAM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO FORWARD MOTION HAS DECREASED. FRANCISCO
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH THIS EVENING.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE
MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN AND ADJACENT WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 17 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO (26W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2N...LONGITUDE 142.9E...THIS IS ABOUT

ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP

STORM MOTION WAS SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 5 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR TYPHOON/TROPICAL STORM DISASTER PLAN AND BE READY TO
ACT IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS SHOULD MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO
PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST
FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-170500-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
911 AM CHST THU OCT 17 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
FOR GUAM AND ROTA...EAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST BY
THIS EVENING. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH.

FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN...EAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE
SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR ALL
LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CHOPPY SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FEET TODAY WILL BUILD FURTHER TO BETWEEN 11
AND 14 FEET TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET MAY STILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS...
ESPECIALLY DURING HIGH TIDES. SURF WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS AT 10 TO
12 FEET ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS THROUGH TONIGHT.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS STILL POSSIBLE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO

[cycloneye]

[hurricanes1234]

Truly amazing.

[stormkite]

[euro6208]

WEATHER UPDATE: Tropical storm is now a typhoon, Guam under tropical storm warning

Link to Guampdn.


256
WTPQ33 PGUM 170326
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262013
200 PM CHST THU OCT 17 2013

...TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO BECOMES A TYPHOON...
...TYPHOON FRANCISCO BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND GUAM ADJACENT
WATERS OUT TO 40 NM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN... SAIPAN
AND ADJACENT WATERS OUT TO 40 NM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.2N 142.8E

ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON FRANCISCO (26W) WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.8 EAST.

RADAR HAS INDICATED THAT TYPHOON FRANCISCO HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT NORTH
AT ABOUT 5 MPH WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. FRANCISCO IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH. TYPHOON
FRANCISCO WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THROUGH TONIGHT. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 15 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM LATER THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO/EDSON/STANKO

[euro6208]

Rapid intensification going on. Intensity is likely approaching 100 knots based on data and satellite.

[stormkite]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2013 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 11:24:00 N Lon : 142:36:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 983.2mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.7 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -22.3C Cloud Region Temp : -64.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.0T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 111km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.6 degrees

[Meow]

Francisco is now the 10th typhoon in 2013.



TY 1327 (FRANCISCO)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 17 October 2013

<Analyses at 17/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N11°25'(11.4°)
E142°35'(142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S390km(210NM)
N280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°05'(14.1°)
E142°30'(142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°00'(17.0°)
E140°30'(140.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 20/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°05'(19.1°)
E137°35'(137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[euro6208]

26W FRANCISCO 131017 0600 11.4N 142.7E WPAC 75 967

Best Track up to 75 knots!

WDPN33 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM SOUTHWEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE EYE FOR TY 26W HAS STEADILY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS, WITH INCREASED SYMMETRY AND A DEEP LAYERED CONVECTIVE
EYEWALL EXPANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, THE MSI INDICATES THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR), LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATING
77 KNOTS, AND A CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 78 KNOTS. THE WIND FIELD
FOR THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY COMPACT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM
INDICATING WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES AROUND
1005 MB. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL WIND FIELD HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. A RECENT 170223Z OSCAT PASS WAS ALSO USED TO
CONFIRM THE WIND FIELD STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING, PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL
OUTFLOW FOR THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE (29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR EXTENSION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, UNTIL
THE SYSTEM HAS CLOSED THE DISTANCE TO THE DOMINANT STR LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTH OF GUAM. AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE DEEP LAYERED STR BECOMES THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS, AND AMPLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WILL
ALLOW TY 26W TO INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS TO A MAXIMUM OF 125
KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR, BRINGING THE TRACK TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.
DECREASING SSTS AFTER TAU 72 WILL CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE WIDELY THEREAFTER. THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, BUT
HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS FOR THE 96 AND 120
POSITIONS, FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD, BUT REMAINS LOW OVERALL DUE TO THE RECENT NATURE OF THIS
CHANGE IN STEERING.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Buoy near the University of Guam Marine Lab seems kinda sheltered from the winds...

13.428 N 144.797 E (13°25'41" N 144°47'49" E)...

[hurricanes1234]

Now Francisco's floater is nowhere to be found.

[stormkite]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2013 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 11:47:49 N Lon : 142:51:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 969.8mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.2 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +2.6C Cloud Region Temp : -74.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[HURAKAN]

impressive microwave image

[HURAKAN]

center visible from Guam's radar

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Winds are now at 160 KPH as per JTWC. Already a Category 2.

[euro6208]

26W FRANCISCO 131017 1200 12.1N 143.0E WPAC 85 959

BT up to 85 knots...


Meanwhile...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2013 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 12:17:24 N Lon : 142:55:07 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 963.6mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.5 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +6.8C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.0T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 116km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 14.6 degrees

[euro6208]

WOW!



this is the most compact typhoon i've seen in months...