WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

as if 12:41 am friday, we are experiencing slight rainfall but really strong winds...pressure of 1004 mb and falling...Winds sustained at 25mph gusting to 40mph...later on today, conditions are expected to worsen even more as francisco makes it's closest approach to guam...

[jaguarjace]

Now Francisco's floater is nowhere to be found.

I might be wrong but i think this may be relevant to why there is no floater.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/MESS/MSG2892118.01.txt
Hopefully the floater will be getting set up soon.

[euro6208]

EYE just southwest of guam...

[hurricanes1234]

!!!!!!!!


26W FRANCISCO 131017 1800 13.2N 142.8E WPAC 110 941

[hurricanes1234]

Powerful typhoon - strong Category 3.

[hurricanes1234]

Now Francisco's floater is nowhere to be found.

I might be wrong but i think this may be relevant to why there is no floater.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/MESS/MSG2892118.01.txt
Hopefully the floater will be getting set up soon.

Thanks!

[hurricanes1234]

Extracted from 2100 UTC discussion...


B. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR EXTENSION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MORE DOMINANT STR LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF GUAM. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND AMPLE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TY 26W TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS TO A MAXIMUM OF 135 KNOTS.


Peak of 135 knots! Could this become a Category 5?

[euro6208]

Category 3 Francisco!

WDPN33 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES THE CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TY 26W
HAS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER AROUND A WELL-DEFINED 15NM EYE. A
171612Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A WELL
DEFINED EYEWALL AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS IN THE OUTER
PERIPHERIES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE WELL DEFINED EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
110 KNOTS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 90
TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL
AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY FRANCISCO IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTH WITH A SLIGHT WOBBLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR EXTENSION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, UNTIL
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MORE DOMINANT STR LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF GUAM.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND AMPLE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TY 26W TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS TO A MAXIMUM OF 135 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STR, ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.
DECREASING OCEAN PARAMETERS AFTER TAU 72 WILL CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT CONTINUES TO DIVERGE WIDELY THEREAFTER
DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENT OF THE STR IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

conditions continue to worsen as rain is falling very hard and tropical storm force winds...

[hurricanes1234]

First close-up visible image shows very cold and intense convection surrounding the eye. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a Category 4 already. Stay safe.

[cycloneye]

Saved radar loop.

[euro6208]

insane rain coming down for at least 30 minutes now...

[euro6208]

UPDATE...

587
WTPQ63 PGUM 180038
TCUPQ3

TYPHOON FRANCISCO (26W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP262013
1000 AM CHST FRI OCT 18 2013

...10 AM CHST...0000 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...

AT 958 AM CHST...2358 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON FRANCISCO WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.1
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 195 MILES WEST OF THE GUAM WSR-88D RADAR
AT AN ELEVATION OF 25400 FEET.

SUMMARY OF 10 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.8N 142.1E
ELEVATION...25400 FEET

ABOUT 195 MILES WEST OF THE GUAM RADAR.
POSITION OF THE CENTER IS GOOD.

ALL OF THE EYE OF TYPHOON FRANSCISO REMAINS VISIBLE EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR WESTERN EDGE...HOWEVER...THE EYE IS STILL NEARLY CIRCULAR IN
SHAPE. DIAMETER OF THE EYE IS 27NM...31 MILES...AT 25400 FEET.
MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS IS NORTHWEST...320 DEGREES...AT 10
MPH.

$$

W.AYDLETT

[euro6208]

26W FRANCISCO 131018 0000 13.8N 142.3E WPAC 120 933

BT up to Category 4...120 knots...933 mb! ...incredible...

[hurricanes1234]

Yes. Very powerful typhoon. Just this morning, this was a Category 1.
Eye is clearing out even more. Now almost cloud-free.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hope you guys in Guam are safe. =D

WE, in Cebu and Bohol are still recovering from that terrible 7.2 earthquake. Aftershocks are still being felt.

[stormkite]

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2013 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 13:48:50 N Lon : 142:15:04 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 948.9mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.5 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This storm looks impressive. Super Typhoon anyone?

[hurricanes1234]

Why is the pressure on the intensity analysis as high as 948 mbar? Seems a little strange, given that Best Track has it at 933 mbar.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Francisco has a very south-weighted central dense overcast. That being said, convection core /overall/ seems to be weaker than what we would expect with a 120kt cyclone. Microwave imagery shows no hints of an eyewall replacement cycle underway and dry air certainly doesn't appear to be an issue. Not sure what the problem is.