WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

[stormkite]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2013 Time : 063000 UTC
Lat : 14:24:23 N Lon : 142:01:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 939.3mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +9.5C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.2 degrees

[summersquall]

Link for long range radar out of Guam:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... &map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=20&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=None&rainsnow=Hide&lightning=Hide

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Official forecast's are now suggesting FRANCISCO will go C5

Link please.

Actually, JTWC says it will just stay shy of Cat 5 (250 km/hr) but we're not yet sure.

Are you suggesting 165 knot gusts are not C5. Also you quote we're not sure. Who is we're .? 165 knots is just shy of 190 mph or 313 kms/hr.

What I mean is that 165 kts are gusts and 135 kts are the sustained winds which is the basis. JTWC meant that. Do you understand the difference

[stormkite]

xtyphooncyclonex

What i understand is 134 sustained with 165 wind gusts is a c5 strength storm what part of that statement did you not understand. ?

BTW came across this link tonight http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... t-5-storm/

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2013 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 14:53:59 N Lon : 142:01:16 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 936.9mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +17.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.8 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

eye just cleared! JMA expecting a violent typhoon early tomorrow...

TY 1327 (FRANCISCO)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 18 October 2013

<Analyses at 18/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E142°00'(142.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 19/09 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N16°50'(16.8°)
E139°25'(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 20/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N18°05'(18.1°)
E137°05'(137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 21/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°40'(20.7°)
E135°35'(135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[euro6208]

Standing right beside the beach and the waves are enormous!

Rain and wind has died and conditions is steadily improving.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Standing right beside the beach and the waves are enormous!

Rain and wind has died and conditions is steadily improving.

\
At least.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track at 125kts.

26W FRANCISCO 131018 1200 15.2N 141.8E WPAC 125 929

[SouthDadeFish]

SSD gave it a T 7.0 which surprised me a little bit. Although that time frame is when it has looked its best thus far:

18/0832 UTC 14.7N 142.0E T7.0/7.0 FRANCISCO -- West Pacific

Another cat 5?

West PAC cranking up the ACE!

[euro6208]

2013OCT18 123200 7.0 921.9 140.0 6.9 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF 16.63 -76.37 EYE 21 IR 76.3 15.37 -141.70 COMBO MTSAT2 18.4

Current Satellite Estimate
RAW









WOW! looks very much a category 5 Super Typhoon and data supports it!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Probably this will put 36 units! Dr. Maue's website is not yet updated...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2013OCT18 123200 7.0 921.9 140.0 6.9 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF 16.63 -76.37 EYE 21 IR 76.3 15.37 -141.70 COMBO MTSAT2 18.4

Current Satellite Estimate
RAW



http://i.imgur.com/R4ocVAO.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/z0QWgND.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/8WszmvJ.jpg

WOW! looks very much a category 5 Super Typhoon and data supports it!

JTWC is too conservative? 125 knots and only 135 kts is predicted?

[StormingB81]

Seems like model want to bring it close to Okinawa...I talked to me buddy over there he said there are already rumbles about being prepared. I said well it is Typhoon seaso nand you neevr know with these things,

[euro6208]

2013OCT18 123200 7.0 921.9 140.0 6.9 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF 16.63 -76.37 EYE 21 IR 76.3 15.37 -141.70 COMBO MTSAT2 18.4

Current Satellite Estimate
RAW





WOW! looks very much a category 5 Super Typhoon and data supports it!

JTWC is too conservative? 125 knots and only 135 kts is predicted?

hmm if only we had recon...they would probrably find winds of around 145 knots sustained in a rapidly strengthening Super Typhoon...

[mrbagyo]

Francisco must be a cat 5 by now and has a good chance of surpassing both Usagi and Phailin. wew
this is what I expect WPAc to do during mid October...

I'm not expecting much after Kong-rey for a couple of weeks whilst the MJO is raging across the Atlantic. I think mid September we should see our next burst of activity. The ridiculously low ACE 2013 season continues!

yes, the MJO is moving away from us,and WPAC is just loaded with wind shear
Time to prepare for the monsters of the "Ber" months...
I'm expecting to see the strongest TC to form in mid-October.

by the way... today marks the 3rd year anniversary of MEGI's landfall over the Luzon island as a monster storm

and... that's not all...
16 years ago , the view in the Pacific was like this...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Francisco must be a cat 5 by now and he has a good chance of surpassing both Usagi and Phailin. wew
this is what I expect WPAc to do during mid October...

I'm not expecting much after Kong-rey for a couple of weeks whilst the MJO is raging across the Atlantic. I think mid September we should see our next burst of activity. The ridiculously low ACE 2013 season continues!

yes, the MJO is moving away from us,and WPAC is just loaded with wind shear
Time to prepare for the monsters of the "Ber" months...
I'm expecting to see the strongest TC to form in mid-October.

by the way... today marks the 3rd year anniversary of MEGI's landfall over the Luzon island as a monster storm

and... that's not all...
16 years ago , the view in the Pacific was like this...

Surpassing Usagi... hmmm, I think so!
Surpassing Phailin...duh!

Anyways, in my opinion, that pic was fun if you where a storm tracker then!

Also, I think Francisco is already a cat 5 (905 mbar, 145 kts)

Francisco is a common name in the Philippines (I live there too) and is Spanish for Francis.

[cycloneye]

[mrbagyo]

TXPQ29 KNES 181516
TCSWNP

A. 26W (FRANCISCO)

B. 18/1432Z

C. 15.6N

D. 141.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...NEVER HAVE SEEN AN EYE SO WARM (17C - WMG) AND YET SO
SYMMETRIC IN NEARLY ALL COLOR RINGS FROM WHITE TO WMG ALONG EYEWALL. EYE
IS WELL EMBEDDED IN WHITE FOR A EYE NO. OF 6.0. CMG RING DOES NOT FULLY
SURROUND BUT WHITE RING WITH WMG EYE STILL YIELDS EYE ADJ. OF PLUS 1.0
FOR A DT OF 7.0. NOW A WEAK BAND DOES WRAP 1/4 AROUND THE STORM FOR A
BANDING FEATURE TO BE ADDED IF THE MET WAS HIGHER...AND THOUGH THE MET
COULD BE JUSTIFIED 7.5 FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO
(COOL EYE AND NOT SYMMETRIC). FELT THAT USING DR TREND JUST TO ADD BAND
FEATURE FOR DT WAS UNREALISTIC AND SO MET IS 7.0. PT IS 7.0 FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/1001Z 15.0N 142.0E TMI
18/1002Z 15.1N 141.9E SSMIS
18/1137Z 15.2N 141.9E AMSU


...GALLINA

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 181516
TCSWNP

A. 26W (FRANCISCO)

B. 18/1432Z

C. 15.6N

D. 141.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...NEVER HAVE SEEN AN EYE SO WARM (17C - WMG) AND YET SO
SYMMETRIC IN NEARLY ALL COLOR RINGS FROM WHITE TO WMG ALONG EYEWALL. EYE
IS WELL EMBEDDED IN WHITE FOR A EYE NO. OF 6.0. CMG RING DOES NOT FULLY
SURROUND BUT WHITE RING WITH WMG EYE STILL YIELDS EYE ADJ. OF PLUS 1.0
FOR A DT OF 7.0. NOW A WEAK BAND DOES WRAP 1/4 AROUND THE STORM FOR A
BANDING FEATURE TO BE ADDED IF THE MET WAS HIGHER...AND THOUGH THE MET
COULD BE JUSTIFIED 7.5 FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO
(COOL EYE AND NOT SYMMETRIC). FELT THAT USING DR TREND JUST TO ADD BAND
FEATURE FOR DT WAS UNREALISTIC AND SO MET IS 7.0. PT IS 7.0 FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/1001Z 15.0N 142.0E TMI
18/1002Z 15.1N 141.9E SSMIS
18/1137Z 15.2N 141.9E AMSU


...GALLINA

JTWC:

A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS A DT OF 7.5.


is this isn't a 7.5 then i don't know what is plus that warm eye!

[euro6208]

interesting...

The warmest eye on record is 30°C (86 °F) at 700 hPa measured directly by recon in Super Typhoon Nora in 1973. Nora peaked at 185 mph and a world record pressure of 877mb at the time...

likely surpassed by many typhoons since then...