SPAC: INVEST 94P

[supercane4867]

11.8S 166E

[supercane4867]

TPPS11 PGTW 190048

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (NW OF FIJI)

B. 18/2332Z

C. 11.9S

D. 166.0

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

[supercane4867]

Where can I find CPHC fixes for South Pacific?

[jaguarjace]

Saved loop.


Another view (Not an official product from SSD. I created this product).

[supercane4867]

Where can I find CPHC fixes for South Pacific?

Nevermine, just founded

TXPS41 PHFO 190208
TCSSP1
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0210 UTC SAT OCT 19 2013
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
B. 18/2332Z
C. 11.8S
D. 166.0E
E. MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12 HRS
G. VIS/IR
H. REMARKS...CDO PATTERN YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF 3.5 WHILE A .4
WRAP WOULD YIELD A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.5. FINAL T-NUMBER HELD TO 2.0
BASED ON DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THIS IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM AND MAY NOT
BE FOLLOWING THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS FOR SPEED OF DEVELOPMENT. THERE
IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
18/1132Z 12.3S 166.2E T1.0/1.0
$$
DONALDSON

[stormkite]

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Oct 182000 UTC. PART 1 : WARNING NIL. PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Oct 191800 UTC. LOW L [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 04.0S 180.0 AT 181800UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR. TROUGH T1 EQ 176E TO L TO 07S 175W 10S 167W 10S 155W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1. TROUGH T2 09S 160E 12S 166E 17S 167E 21S 171E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2. STATIONARY FRONT SF1 16S 177W 20S 160W 22S 155W 21S 151W. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES OF SF1. STATIONARY FRONT SF2 25S 145W 22S 135W 23S 125W 25S 120W. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES OF SF2. IN THE AREA BETWEEN 15S AND 25S AND BETWEEN 165E AND 170W, EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. IN THE AREA BETWEEN 20S AND 25S AND BETWEEN 170W AND 145W, EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS.



looks like my part of the world is starting to come alive will follow with great interest.

[supercane4867]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1S 166.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 742 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL-COMPACT SYSTEM WITH
A CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEPENING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. AN 182148Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20 TO 30 KNOT
WIND BARBS SURROUNDING A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM. A UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

looks like a moderate tropical storm but it's small size is playing around with dvorak...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
166.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 166.2E, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL-COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND
DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. AN 182148Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20 TO
30 KNOT WIND BARBS SURROUNDING A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VWS
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Grifforzer]

RSMC Nadi

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.5S 166.2E AT 190900UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WESTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

[hurricanes1234]

Not looking good. Convection is virtually gone, and there doesn't seem to be a well-defined circulation. Maybe dry air is the cause, and I don't see much development, if any, here.





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S
165.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7SS 164.6E, APPROXIMATELY 760 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALL-COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND
DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 191306Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS SURROUNDING A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW VWS AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think 1P has the best of futures. This has a very low chance (5%) of becoming a TC within the next 3 days according to FMS, http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/tc_outlook.pdf ) To me, it looks like a TD by US standards, but nothing more.

[Grifforzer]

RSMC Nadi is done with 01F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.7S 167.2E AT 200900UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

THIS IS THE LAST DISTURBANCE SUMMARY FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[Yellow Evan]

That was quick. See ya next year 1F.