Global model runs discussion

[blp]

Folks really shouldn't take anything more out of this than the fact that the op ECM and op GFS are forecasting a general pattern that might favor BOC or western CARIB TC formation starting around days 8-10, which are preferred climatological regions for TC genesis during late OCT. It would probably do peeps well to skip getting into the "gory details" (one of my favorite AFD terms) of the model solutions and look more at global ensembles, their means, and how they trend over the next several days.

I can't agree more. I have been saying that you can't focus on specific lows at this point. I would not be surprised to see the model change ideas again.

[gatorcane]

Folks really shouldn't take anything more out of this than the fact that the op ECM and op GFS are forecasting a general pattern that might favor BOC or western CARIB TC formation starting around days 8-10, which are preferred climatological regions for TC genesis during late OCT. It would probably do peeps well to skip getting into the "gory details" (one of my favorite AFD terms) of the model solutions and look more at global ensembles, their means, and how they trend over the next several days.

I can't agree more. I have been saying that you can't focus on specific lows at this point. I would not be surprised to see the model change ideas again.

It did. 18Z GFS doesn't show the low anymore.

[blp]

Folks really shouldn't take anything more out of this than the fact that the op ECM and op GFS are forecasting a general pattern that might favor BOC or western CARIB TC formation starting around days 8-10, which are preferred climatological regions for TC genesis during late OCT. It would probably do peeps well to skip getting into the "gory details" (one of my favorite AFD terms) of the model solutions and look more at global ensembles, their means, and how they trend over the next several days.

I can't agree more. I have been saying that you can't focus on specific lows at this point. I would not be surprised to see the model change ideas again.

It did. 18Z GFS doesn't show the low anymore.

Development does happen but on the Pacific side.

I have noticied a subtle pattern on the GFS that might not mean much but since yesterday the 00z & 12z favor more Atlantic side action while the 06z & 18z favor Pacific side action. Be interesting to see what the 00z says.

[blp]

Development does happen but on the Pacific side.

I have noticied a subtle pattern on the GFS that might not mean much but since yesterday the 00z & 12z favor more Atlantic side action while the 06z & 18z favor Pacific side action. Be interesting to see what the 00z says.

Nevermind the 00z broke that pattern.

[blp]

I am still leaning towards first week of November. It looks the EPAC will be active the last week of October and then the action should migrate toward the Carribean. Both the GFS and CFSv2 show the activity moving East. Since the GFS is going out till Oct 31 right now I don't see anything consistent happening at least for another few days. Keep an eye toward the weekend to see if we start getting consistent runs showing development.

GFS


CFSv2

[Blown Away]

06z GFS, 384 hours out...
Is this another 2013 trick or will we get a treat before the end....

[jlauderdal]

http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/7512/q6t8.jpg
06z GFS, 384 hours out...
Is this another 2013 trick or will we get a treat before the end....

this will be a 384h verify...its been that kind of season to see something like this happen

[blp]

The MJO has moved into our region and looks like it will hang around at least for the next two weeks if not longer. Still nothing significant on the GFS or Euro. I see the EPAC taking the energy away from the Carrribean right now but as we move further along I expect something to get going in the Carribean. I think by the weekend we will start seeing something on the models. If we don't see anything by next week then I will need to change my thinking because the MJO will probably be gone after the first week of November and the season will more than likely be over. Without the upward motion help of the MJO I don't see how we can possibly get another system during this hostile year.

[ROCK]

the westerlies have kicked in with a vengeance...game over for GOM.... See y'all next season!!!

[CrazyC83]

the westerlies have kicked in with a vengeance...game over for GOM.... See y'all next season!!!

How often does the central/western GOM get a late season storm anyway? Not very often, even in the most active seasons.

[ConvergenceZone]

the westerlies have kicked in with a vengeance...game over for GOM.... See y'all next season!!!

I agree. See everyone next season!!! I highly doubt that 2014 will be year as quiet as 2013....... So enjoy it while it lasts

[blp]

The GFS and FIM are hinting at similar development since yesterday from a wave entering the E. Caribbean and the making it into the W. Carrbean in the 200-300hr range.

[gatorcane]

Low forms at 216 hours (Oct 29th) in the Eastern-Central Caribbean on the 12Z GFS and tracks generally WNW to W across the Caribbean.

[blp]

12z FIM continues to agree with GFS and shows a wave coming from the east developing in the W.Caribean.

[gatorcane]

GFS continuing to show development...low develops around 10 days from now and here at 348 hours it's quite intense in the Western Caribbean:

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

GFS continuing to show development...

And what intensity will Lorenzo and Melissa be then, eh?
FINALLY BRO!

[ronjon]

18z GFS bombs out a cyclone in the western caribbean toward the end of the month.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013102018/gfs_mslp_wind_watl_76.png

[blp]

That is several runs of the GFS and FIM now. The strongest by far on the GFS.

[gatorcane]

The GFS and FIM are keying in on the wave that is traversing the Central Atlantic as seen on this latest surface analysis graphic below. Looking at VIS loops of this wave from earlier today, it is quite vigorous and pretty easy to spot on satellite.

[Macrocane]

The WPAC has been in a period of favorable conditions in the last 4 weeks, then it was the North Indian and we're finally seeing favorable conditions in the EPAC, probably the next one will be the ATL.