EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[hurricanes1234]

Raymond looking really nice atm. Not sure if it'll RI though.

Yes, it looks really good. MJO and Kelvin-wave are giving it a little push. I'll post an image later.

[hurricanes1234]

Here's the promised image. It's definitely intensifying right now. I'd estimate at least 60 mph for the next advisory. You can sort of see a CDO feature forming.

[Yellow Evan]

Trivial, but Raymond 83 and 89 were both Cat 4's during the EPAC dynasty era of the 80's and early 90's. Also weird how this naming list is the first to get to R since 1989. That's impr4essive IMO, and almost makes up for the lack of major's IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

Trivial, but Raymond 83 and 89 were both Cat 4's during the EPAC dynasty era of the 80's and early 90's. Also weird how this naming list is the first to get to R since 1989. That's impr4essive IMO, and almost makes up for the lack of major's IMO.

First Raymond in 21st century!

And he continues to strengthen, with a partial eye-like feature.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 101.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY LATE MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[hurricanes1234]

Neat eye-like feature. Mexican residents, this is a bad time to surf!

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 55kts.

EP, 17, 2013102018, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1019W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M,

[supercane4867]

TXPZ25 KNES 201828
TCSENP

A. 17E (RAYMOND)
B. 20/1745Z
C. 15.1N
D. 101.9W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT
H. REMARKS...RAYMOND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH LLCC FIRMLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN DENSE OVERCAST WITH SPIRAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
COMPLETELY AROUND. 10 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=3.5. MET=3.0 BASED ON 24
HR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
20/1236Z 14.7N 101.5W WINDSAT

...RUMINSKI

12Z ECMWF down to 957mb

[Yellow Evan]

18z Best Track up to 55kts.

EP, 17, 2013102018, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1019W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M,

Not shocking. I wonder what the next forecast peak will be. I'd go with 80 knts.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynami ... W.59pc.jpg

Does Raymond want to see?

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

TXPZ25 KNES 201828
TCSENP

A. 17E (RAYMOND)
B. 20/1745Z
C. 15.1N
D. 101.9W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT
H. REMARKS...RAYMOND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH LLCC FIRMLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN DENSE OVERCAST WITH SPIRAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
COMPLETELY AROUND. 10 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=3.5. MET=3.0 BASED ON 24
HR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
20/1236Z 14.7N 101.5W WINDSAT

...RUMINSKI

12Z ECMWF down to 957mb

http://i.imgur.com/319waR8.png

Do you think Ray would be our first major? Or do you think something else?
DA DISCLAIMER!
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 201828
TCSENP

A. 17E (RAYMOND)
B. 20/1745Z
C. 15.1N
D. 101.9W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT
H. REMARKS...RAYMOND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH LLCC FIRMLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN DENSE OVERCAST WITH SPIRAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
COMPLETELY AROUND. 10 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=3.5. MET=3.0 BASED ON 24
HR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
20/1236Z 14.7N 101.5W WINDSAT

...RUMINSKI

12Z ECMWF down to 957mb

http://i.imgur.com/319waR8.png

Do you think Ray would be our first major? Or do you think something else?
DA DISCLAIMER!
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I still think it's possible. Not sure if it's gonna happen, I've said that Gil, Flossie, Henriette, Alvin, and Juliete could have been major's prior to when they peaked. Of course, none of them became majors. I hope it does not however, this storm has the chance to be very very bad to Guerrero, which got devastated by Manuel of course.

[hurricanes1234]

Best looking TS ever!

[Yellow Evan]

Best looking TS ever!

I think they'll go with 60 knots now. Really getting its act together sadly.

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE
MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 101.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A BAND OF COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS WRAPPING AROUND THE THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T3.5
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST BEFORE 1600 UTC
SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. HOWEVER...AN EYE
FEATURE HAS SINCE BEEN DEVELOPING IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH SOON...AND PEAKS
THE SYSTEM AT 85 KT FROM 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RAYMOND COULD GET STRONG THAN THIS IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
CONTINUES. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM THROUGH 36 HOURS
AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM AFTER THAT TIME. THIS
FORECAST IS A QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS...SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BOTH SHOW WEAKENING AFTER
MOVING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND INLAND.

A BLEND OF RECENT FIXES AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 340/06...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RAYMOND SHOULD TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...STEERING
CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL GET TO THE COAST...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE HWRF
AND GFDL NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND BY 36 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK DOES NOT SHOW
LANDFALL...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TVCE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS AND THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
TRACK...AND WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND WILL REACH THE COAST...
REMAINS QUITE LOW...AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF
RAYMOND...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 15.6N 101.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.9N 101.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.3N 101.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 16.6N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 16.8N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 16.5N 102.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 16.0N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

New peak intensity is 85kts but it could be higher if it does not make landfall.

[hurricanes1234]

Based on that eye, this could already be a hurricane. Let's hope it remains offshore. What is the more likely scenario? Landfall or a Dalila-like storm that comes within miles of the coast but stays over water?

[Yellow Evan]

Based on that eye, this could already be a hurricane. Let's hope it remains offshore. What is the more likely scenario? Landfall or a Dalila-like storm that comes within miles of the coast but stays over water?

Dalila did not come that close to the coast. Only TS warnings went up. If you want a storm that truly ditched landfall this year, think Juliette.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Raymond has a little dry air entrainment to contend with from where it rapidly intensified. Should become a hurricane later today though.

[cycloneye]

I am glad that recon will go on Tuesday to see how the real intensity Raymond will be in a couple of days.