ECMWF - Taken for granted

[stormernie]

I believe the more and more I look at these models in the case of Isabel the one with probably the best handle is the ECMWF. This model is excellent with forecasting major atmospheric systems (Highs and Troughs) and as such may have the best handle on the future of Isabel. This storm continues to get stronger probably a CAT 5 as we speak. What does a CAT 5 do well just about what it wants to do (i.e. Mitch). Also, these storms trend to create it own enviroment which means they feed the High Pressure Ridges and thus create their own paths. Given this I strongly feel that the European will be the one to monitor closely as it updates Isabel future paths.

Ernie

[KeyLargoDave]

Do you have a link for the data so we can keep an eye on this? A lot of the model graphics I look at don't include the ECMWF -- unless it's called something else (?).

[stormernie]

Here you go...

http://www.ecmwf.int/

[ameriwx2003]

Yes. The EURO to date seems to have done a good job just like it did with Fabian. The TPC discussion at 11 pm last night praised the ECMWF and I nearly feel out of my chair becasue thats the first time I can remember seeing them talk about let alone praise the EURO:):)

THE ONE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...A MODEL VERY SKILLED AT FORECASTING
LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS...WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF
THE OTHERS IN BRINGING ISABEL NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
BY DAY 5.

[JCT777]

Yes, ECMWF has it right over the Bahamas by Wednesday.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... s!latest!/

[KeyLargoDave]

Ernie -- Where on that page are you getting the track prediction data? I searched around but found only a map of the North Atlantic, under the "Deterministic" forecast link.

Thanks.

[KeyLargoDave]

JCT777, thanks for the link.

[GalvestonDuck]

And just what the heck is that in the eastern Pacific? More to watch on that side?

[Johnny]

It has Isabel near the Bahamas by Wednesday moving in what direction?