EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[CrazyC83]

Wow, maybe the Western Hemisphere will get a major this year after all?

[hurricanes1234]

I'm not sure about a major hurricane from this yet. However, I do think it has a chance at Category 2 status. And even though it's 2013, I still think Raymond isn't going to be finished intensifying until late tomorrow. Meaning that we just might see a 100-mph Category 2, the first since August. I don't know why Mexico is the hotspot for TC landfalls this year.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not sure about a major hurricane from this yet. However, I do think it has a chance at Category 2 status. And even though it's 2013, I still think Raymond isn't going to be finished intensifying until late tomorrow. Meaning that we just might see a 100-mph Category 2, the first since August. I don't know why Mexico is the hotspot for TC landfalls this year.

I am suspecting the most favorable conditions in the hemisphere are in the area from 12N to 22N and from 85W to 105W. Outside that box, so much shear and dry air.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm not sure about a major hurricane from this yet. However, I do think it has a chance at Category 2 status. And even though it's 2013, I still think Raymond isn't going to be finished intensifying until late tomorrow. Meaning that we just might see a 100-mph Category 2, the first since August. I don't know why Mexico is the hotspot for TC landfalls this year.

Troughing over the US and monsoon being strong over SW. Also, it is partially luck IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, maybe the Western Hemisphere will get a major this year after all?

Last one was Evan 12, which briefly made it in the WHEM in the SPAC. Before that, Sandy.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Wow, maybe the Western Hemisphere will get a major this year after all?

Last one was Evan 12, which briefly made it in the WHEM in the SPAC. Before that, Sandy.

Matches you! LOL JK anyways. How many majors you thinking then, eh?

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, maybe the Western Hemisphere will get a major this year after all?

Last one was Evan 12, which briefly made it in the WHEM in the SPAC. Before that, Sandy.

Matches you! LOL JK anyways. How many majors you thinking then, eh?

2 at most counting Raymond. More like 1, maybe 0. Depends what Raymond and the SPAC have up its sleeve. I doubt any EPAC storms after Raymond are becoming major's.

[tolakram]

The euro continues to be very aggressive with Raymond. Dare I say it has the best chance at a major so far this year?

[hurricanes1234]

Clearly intensifying.





In my opinion, yes, it is tied with Henriette for having the best chances at becoming a major (this doesn't mean it will!)

[supercane4867]

TXPZ25 KNES 210010
TCSENP

A. 17E (RAYMOND)

B. 20/2345Z

C. 15.7N

D. 101.9W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...CLOUD FILLED EYE HAS BEEN SEEN OVER LAST FEW EIR AND VIS
IMAGES THAT CONFIRMS 2218Z AMSU PASS. EYE NO. OF 5.5 IS MEASURED FOR
THE EYE BEING EMBEDDED IN BLACK .53 DEGREES. THE WHITE RING SURROUNDS
AN ELONGATED LG EYE FOR NO EYE ADJ. BUT A SUBTRACTION OF 0.5 FOR THE
ELONGATION... FOR A DT OF 5.0. MET USING 24 RAPID TREND IS LIMITED TO
3.0. PT IS LIKEWISE LIMITED TO 3.5...SO FT IS 4.0 BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
OF DEVELOPING NO MORE THAN 2.5 IN 24HRS... ADDITIONALLY THE AVG DT OVER
THE LAST 6HRS IS WELL LESS THAN THE CURRENT DT...SO BREAKING RULES FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT WAS NOT USED ON THIS CLASSIFICATION CYCLE

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/2002Z 15.4N 101.8W AMSU
20/2218Z 15.6N 101.8W AMSU


...GALLINA

[hurricanes1234]

Best Track at 65 knots, but this, in my opinion, is a tad conservative given that the deep convection now wraps fully around an improving eye.


EP, 17, 2013102100, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1019W, 65, 989, HU

[CrazyC83]

Based on that description, I would go with 80 kt personally.

[Macrocane]

I agree that Raymond has the best chances of becoming the first (and probably only) major of the EPAC season, fortunately it is unlikely to make landfall, unfortunately the rains will spread in the same areas hit by Manuel. Not an official forecast.

[hurricanes1234]

Yes, this type of eye is rare for a minimal hurricane. Intensity could be very well 80 knots or more.

[Yellow Evan]

Clearly intensifying.





In my opinion, yes, it is tied with Henriette for having the best chances at becoming a major (this doesn't mean it will!)

Gil had a better chance then Henriette IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Yes, this type of eye is rare for a minimal hurricane. Intensity could be very well 80 knots or more.

I'd say 75 knts.

[supercane4867]

I found no TAFB classification available in the fix file since yesterday 18Z, weird

They normally go for higher numbers than SAB does

[hurricanes1234]

They might update the Best Track soon. Every frame looks better than the previous one.

[hurricanes1234]

They might update the Best Track soon. Every frame looks better than the previous one.

[Yellow Evan]

I agree that Raymond has the best chances of becoming the first (and probably only) major of the EPAC season, fortunately it is unlikely to make landfall, unfortunately the rains will spread in the same areas hit by Manuel. Not an official forecast.

I would not say it's unlikely to make landfall, it's plausible IMO if it rapidly intensifies like it is doing now. Either way, the rains will be heavy and the effect will be more or less teh same.