SIO: Tropical Cyclone 01S

[supercane4867]

8.3S 85.8E

[Yellow Evan]

This is the one the GFS has been devloping, right?

[jaguarjace]

This is the one the GFS has been developing, right?

Indeed

FY-2D RGB Full Disk @ 1030 UTC.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3S 84.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEEDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MSI
ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY
OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE
A 35-KNOT SYSTEM TO DEVELOP FROM THIS AREA IN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[Grifforzer]

AWIO20 FMEE 211200
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2013/10/21 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin shows a Near Equatorial Trough pattern, east to 60E.

A weak low estimated at 1007 hPa (buoy nr 23681) is located at 10Z near 6S/83E, tracking west south-westwards.

According to last oceansat-2 data (05h45Z) circulation is wide, about 10/15kt, associated convection is ill-organized, and mainly located within the trades flow, the only feeding flow. This low is over SST with Sufficient energetic potential, but undergoes a persistent moderate easterly vertical wind shear.

NPW analyse this low, keeps it on a globally westwards track without developing it

Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 72 hours

[supercane4867]

Organizing with nice banding structure

[jaguarjace]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 84.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 83.9E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BUILDING
CENTRAL CORE OF CONVECTION. THE MSI SHOWS FEEDER BANDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT 211425Z SSMIS
91H GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE MSI SHOWING THE BANDING
BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, BUT SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS BROKEN WITHIN THE FEEDER BANDS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
LLCC PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
STARTED TO RELAX AND IS CURRENTLY AT LOW LEVELS (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 83.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 79.9E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS
ENHANCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE MSI ALSO SHOWS FEEDER BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT 221256Z SSMIS 91H GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE MSI SHOWING FRAGMENTED BANDING BUILDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATES A WEAK AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WIND BARBS
IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENED AND HAS REMAINED ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE DISTURBANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, ALBEIT THERE IS MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE WEAK AND
ELONGATED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Grifforzer]

AWIO20 FMEE 221210
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2013/10/22 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin shows a Near Equatorial Trough pattern, east to 55E waving along 3S/55E - 04S/70E -
08S/80E - 01S/85E.

Convective activity within this trough is very fluctuating and mainly concentrates south of this
axis , down to 14S, from 75E to 90E. Within this afore-mentioned area of convective activity, last
0635Z Oceansat-2 scatterometry swath shows a clockwise circulation approximately centered near 08.2S/80.0E. MSLP is estimated at 1006 hPa with maximum winds at about 20kt in the northern semi-circle and 25kt in the southern one, very locally up to 30kt in relationship with the gradient with the subtropical high pressures.

This low is only feed poleward by trade winds inflow but is located in a weak wind shear area under
the axis of the upper level ridge. Available NWP models analyse this low and forecast it to track globally west-south-westwards over the next days.

On this track , the low is expected to keep on being under the upper level ridge and should
significantly deepen after Friday.

Potential for development of a tropical depression until Thursday is poor but becomes moderate to
fair on and after Friday

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 79.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 76.7E, APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
ENHANCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE IR CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK FEEDER BAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT 231243Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE IR SHOWING FRAGMENTED BANDING BUILDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. SCATTEROMETRY DATA CONTINUES
TO INDICATE STRONGER 20 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WITH WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE VORTICITY
SIGNATURE STRENGTH HAS GONE UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND
THE SYMMETRY REMAINS ELONGATED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE
DISTURBANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL APPEARS TO BE OPENING UP.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Yellow Evan]

Has a shot at becoming MTS Amara IMO.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 76.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 72.1E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
DISTURBANCE WITH IMPROVED CURVED BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE IR ALSO DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. A RECENT 241113Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE IR
SHOWING SHALLOW BANDING BUILDING ALONG THE OPPOSITE HALVES OF THE
SYSTEM AS WELL AS DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETRY DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONGER 20 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
STRENGTH OF THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, THOUGH THE OVERALL SYMMETRY REMAINS BROAD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS OF THE DISTURBANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE POLEWARD MOST EXTENT OF FAVORABLE SSTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Grifforzer]

01-20132014 (01R) from Mauritius Meteorological Services

** WTIO20 FMEE 251225 ***
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/10/2013
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 25/10/2013 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.2 S / 69.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN A 300 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
WITHIN A 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2013/10/26 AT 00 UTC:
10.1 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H, VALID 2013/10/26 AT 12 UTC:
11.1 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=

[wxman57]

Forecast to become a TD in 12 hours, persist for 24 hrs as as depression then dissipate.

[supercane4867]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 251430
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3S 70.0E TO 12.4S 64.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 251400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8S 69.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 261430Z.
//

[euro6208]

WTXS21 PGTW 252300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5S 69.4E TO 11.4S 63.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 252230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7S 68.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 68.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 68.7E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 251729Z METOP-A 89 GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BAND PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 251728Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS NOW PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LIGHT (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
262300Z.//

[Grifforzer]

Depression Tropicale 01-20132014

forecast to become Amara in 24 hours.

** WTIO30 FMEE 260642 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1

2.A POSITION 2013/10/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 67.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 220 SW: 150 NW:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/10/26 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/10/27 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/10/27 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/10/28 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2013/10/28 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
72H: 2013/10/29 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/10/30 06 UTC: 13.5 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- CI=2.5-
WITHIN LAST NIGHT, SYSTEM HAS INFLECTED SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS BELT. IT KEEPS ON ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTRE (REFER TO SSMIS SWATHS 26/0017Z F16 AND 26/0107Z F17). 25/1729Z OSCAT AND 26/0435Z SWATHS SHOW A WELL DEFINED BUT ASSYMETRIC CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WITH STRONGEST WINDS ONLY EXISTING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ESTIMATED MSLP IS NOT SO DEEP THAN USUAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN RELATIONSHIP THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE FIELD RATHER HIGH IN OCTOBER (FIST CLOSED ISOBAR AT 1010 HPA).

THE TRADE INFLOW SUPPLIES THE LOW, BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK EQUATORWARD. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD UNDER THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES.

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INFLECT WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW/MID SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING SOUTH-WESTWARD.

ON THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT KEEPS ON BEING FAVOURABLE WITH WEAK WIND-SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE POLEWARD ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE LOWER LAYERS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNFAVOURABLE WITH A DECREASING CONVERGENCE EQUATORWARD AND MARGINAL SST (26-27C). NEVERTHELESS THE LOW SHOULD STILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND IT ISN'T EXCLUDE THAT THE DEPRESSION REACH TROPICAL STROM STAGE.

FROM SUNDAY LATE, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP ON A WESTWARD TRACK.=

[jaguarjace]

Saved images.

[Grifforzer]

12 hrs it may be a moderate tropical storm.

** WTIO30 FMEE 261207 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/1/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1

2.A POSITION 2013/10/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 67.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 220 SW: 150 NW:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/10/27 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/10/27 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/10/28 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2013/10/28 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
60H: 2013/10/29 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
72H: 2013/10/29 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/10/30 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- CI=2.5-
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS BELT AND IS NOW SHIFTING OVER LIMITED HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT (SST 26-27 DEGREES).

26/0435Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BUT ASSYMETRIC CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WITH STRONGEST WINDS ONLY EXISTING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ESTIMATED MSLP IS NOT SO DEEP THAN USUAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN RELATIONSHIP THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE FIELD RATHER HIGH IN OCTOBER (FIST CLOSED ISOBAR AT 1010 HPA).

THE TRADE INFLOW SUPPLIES THE LOW, BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK EQUATORWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INFLECT WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW/MID SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING SOUTH-WESTWARD.

ON THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT KEEPS ON BEING FAVOURABLE WITH WEAK WIND-SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE POLEWARD ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE LOWER LAYERS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNFAVOURABLE WITH A DECREASING CONVERGENCE EQUATORWARD AND MARGINAL SST (26-27 DEGREES C). NEVERTHELESS THE LOW SHOULD STILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND IT ISN'T EXCLUDE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

FROM SUNDAY LATE, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP ON A WESTWARD TRACK.=

[supercane4867]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262251ZOCT2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 65.6E

Forecast to peak at 40kt