EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[supercane4867]

Doesn't appear to be undergoing an EWRC on the lastest SSMIS pass

[tolakram]

Does anyone think Raymond will strengthen some more? Perhaps to 125 mph?

I think it's peaked, but if it starts to move again I suppose it's possible.

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-120&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=94&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-120&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=94&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=5

I chose those IR colors because it seems to show intensity well. Eye is getting larger.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

...RAYMOND BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 102.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.2 WEST. RAYMOND IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RAYMOND COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAYMOND IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

RAYMOND IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE
OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY IF THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[hurricanes1234]

Eyewall actually seems to be expanding.

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think Raymond will strengthen some more? Perhaps to 125 mph?

I think it's peaked, but if it starts to move again I suppose it's possible.

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-120&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=94&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-120&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=94&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=5

I chose those IR colors because it seems to show intensity well. Eye is getting larger.

Thanks. I wonder what is causing the enlargement in the eye. A trip down the road leading to annularity?

[supercane4867]

Anyway Raymond will likely have a second chance to intensify after move away from land

Should be out there for at least a week

[hurricanes1234]

Likely going to be a major ACE contender. Literally.

[Sanibel]

Still some punch left to 2013.

[hurricanes1234]

Eyewall is expanding now. With this, they should upgrade to 110 knots?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Up to 110kts.

EP, 17, 2013102118, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1022W, 110, 949, HU

[CrazyC83]

21/1745 UTC 16.3N 102.2W T6.0/6.0 RAYMOND -- East Pacific

Supports a Cat 4.

[supercane4867]

TXPZ25 KNES 211823
TCSENP

A. 17E (RAYMOND)

B. 21/1745Z

C. 16.3N

D. 102.2W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH
DT=6.0 BASED ON OFF WHITE EYE EMBEDDED AND SURROUNDED BY BLACK. MET=5.0
BUT PAT=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON


The eye has warmed quite a bit

[tolakram]

latest

[tolakram]

Raymond, GOES-East


Raymond GOES-West

[supercane4867]

Eye nearing WMG. Expect T-numbers to rise again

Center Temp : +1.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.2C

Scene Type : EYE

2013OCT21 181500 6.1 945.2 117.4 5.9 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 1.34 -66.16 EYE
2013OCT21 174500 6.1 945.2 117.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF -5.56 -66.30 EYE
2013OCT21 171500 6.1 945.2 117.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF -13.36 -67.16 EYE
2013OCT21 164500 6.1 945.2 117.4 6.0 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF -27.46 -68.14 EYE

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Core convection has weakened some but the eye has become warmer and more symmetric. 110kts is good, maybe a little conservative based on this morning's appearance.

[CrazyC83]

Based on that data, I see no reason why not to go up to 115 kt.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT...EARLIER MICROWAVE AND
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY SMALL EYE AROUND 15Z...SO
PERHAPS THE STORM HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACMENT CYCLE
TODAY. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE T6.0/115 KT FROM SAB
AND T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB...AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAYMOND IS NEAR ITS PEAK...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND INNER-CORE DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO SHORT-TERM
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THAT ARE
NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
AFTER THAT TIME...AS THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
RAYMOND MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM MODEL.

RAYMOND HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO BRING
RAYMOND NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW A SLOW SOUTHWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK INDICATES LITTLE MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE NORTH/SOUTH
SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BY DAY 5.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 16.3N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 102.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 16.3N 102.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.2N 103.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

Raymond is just epic.

[hurricanes1234]

Beyond epic. This thing is almost a Category 4 hurricane! Not a typhoon but a hurricane! Who could have thought we would have seen a major hurricane rapidly intensifying like this in 2013? Absolutely amazing. Pressure is sub-950 mbar, the most intense since last year's Emilia.