WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

[supercane4867]

14.1N 153.3E

[hurricanes1234]

Getting eaten by Francisco ...

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 131018 0000 17.0N 152.9E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.0N 152.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 564 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
DEPICT PERSISTENT ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, FIXING AGENCIES ARE REPORTING DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

20131018 2101 19.2 -152.3 T1.5/1.5 94W 94W

[hurricanes1234]

Is there any model support for 94W?

[HURAKAN]

looks like a TD or TS

[supercane]

JMA is calling it one, but not issuing any advisories yet.

WWJP25 RJTD 190000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 32N 132E 35N 140E 36N 151E 30N 150E 30N 140E 30N 131E 32N
132E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 60N 164E 60N 180E 50N 180E 52N 167E 60N 164E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 19N 152E NW SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 164E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 42N 147E EAST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 920 HPA AT 16.2N 140.4E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

20131019 0232 19.5 -151.6 T2.0/2.0 94W 94W

Dvorak up to 2.0 so we'll likely see our 27th Tropical Cyclone later today...

[supercane]

94W in upper left.

Click for larger image.

[euro6208]

Is there any model support for 94W?

shear is too high in the area. probrably won't last long...euro only develops a weak tropical storm before weakening...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N
152.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES 25-30
KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSETTING THE SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS
AROUND THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

No TCFA.. but

WTPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.1N 151.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 151.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.5N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.1N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.8N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 150.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It will just stay as a weak depression, so no ''LEKIMA'' yet. It will get eaten by Francisco.

[jaguarjace]

JTWC Track.

[hurricanes1234]

Has that extremely sheared, triangular look to it. Reminds me of Philippe in the Atlantic in 2011. I don't think this will last much longer, but this system has to be very resilient in the first place to develop into a tropical cyclone amidst up to 30 knots of wind shear. LLC is almost fully exposed, and again, you can see the convective pattern resembling a triangle, characteristic of very high wind shear.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
555 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE ASSOCIATED
SHALLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS SUSTAINING THE WEAK
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK
THROUGHOUT ITS SHORT LIFESPAN. THE STRONG VWS, WHICH WILL FURTHER
INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING IT TO BELOW THE 25-KNOT WARNING
THRESHOLD BY TAU 24. THE LIMITED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FRAGILE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

453
WTPQ31 PGUM 191507
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272013
200 AM CHST SUN OCT 20 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.3N 149.9E

ABOUT 345 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 505 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 640 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE
149.9 EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 27W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND STAY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.

$$

ZIOBRO

[Grifforzer]

WARNING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 20.4N 149.8E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORISIMA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AS WELL AS AN AREA
OF SHALLOWER CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 192224Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC POSITION WITH IMPROVING CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-
40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS
SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE STR
THROUGHOUT ITS SHORT LIFESPAN. IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER THAT
THE STRONG VWS, WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
FURTHER POLEWARD AND BEGINS TO CREST THE STR AXIS, WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS COOLING TO BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS WILL DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM
BELOW THE 25-KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36. THE LIMITED DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
FRAGILE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 23.6N 145.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 145.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.3N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 28.9N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 145.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
UNRAVELED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUED TO BE GREATLY
SHEARED SOUTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG 30-40 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT WAS SUSTAINING THE REMNANT
CONVECTION HAS WANED, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD
INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EVEN STRONGER VWS,
DISSIPATING BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200600Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26W (FRANCISCO)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

[Grifforzer]

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 30.5N 143.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.