SPAC: INVEST 93P

[supercane4867]

5.7S 177.6W

[Yellow Evan]

Kinda a mess IMO.

[Grifforzer]

RSMC Nadi

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F [1006HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 04.0S 178.0E AT 190900UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WEST THAN SOUTHWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

[hurricanes1234]

Looks very good.

[hurricanes1234]

Has to be at least a TD now. Very impressive for an invest.

[Yellow Evan]

Has to be at least a TD now. Very impressive for an invest.

It is. In the SHEM, they use the term "tropical disturbance", which is what FMS is calling it IIRC.

[Grifforzer]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD02F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 2.8S 173.4E AT 200900UTC MOVING WEST AT 5 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WEST THAN SOUTHWEST WITHOUT MUCH INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.2S 174.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 840 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM THAT HAS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
DEEPENED BUT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
HELPING SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO
72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO THE CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[jaguarjace]

TCFA Issued.


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4S
171.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 845 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYTEM HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES WEST OF A
NEAR EQAUTORIAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-20 KNOT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF C (WTPS21
PGTW 211030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[euro6208]

20131021 1201 -8.0 -170.6 T2.0/2.0 93P 93P

[Grifforzer]

winds up to 35 knots... though away from the center to be named..

GALE WARNING 001 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Oct 21/1315 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 169.9E AT 211200
UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 140 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.

[Hurricane_Luis]

And the Next name on the list is Ian.

[jaguarjace]

TCFA Cancelled.

1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 211030Z). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 170.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
11.6S 169.4E, APPROXIMATELY 660 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POORLY
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH UNORGANIZED FLARING
CONVECTION THAT HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED OVER THAT PAST 12 HOURS. A
220905Z SSMIS MICROWAVE ALSO SHOWS A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AS
THE LLCC HAS INCREASINGLY BECOME MORE POORLY DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY POOR ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) LEVELS
WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE DIFFLUENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NO LONGER DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSOLIDATION AND DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[Grifforzer]

sustained winds to be easing in 12-18 hours

GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Oct 22/1900 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 168.30E AT
221800 UTC. TD02F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.