Texas Fall 2013

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 500 MB chart looks weird for the next 10 days. ULL off the west coast of California with a High just above it. Loving this cooler weather!

[Ntxw]

While Halloween is still very far out I think it's a period that is worth monitoring obviously. Francisco's recurve in the WPAC and -SOI's appearing again, it's a possibility that around the holiday the weather may be frightful for trick or treaters. First half of the month for DFW airport was 4C+ above normal and has since fallen to 1C above, still room to lower before the month is out.

As I've mentioned earlier I still think the threat of frost or freeze is still on the table later this month that could come around Halloween week.

[Tireman4]

While Halloween is still very far out I think it's a period that is worth monitoring obviously. Francisco's recurve in the WPAC and -SOI's appearing again, it's a possibility that around the holiday the weather may be frightful for trick or treaters. First half of the month for DFW airport was 4C+ above normal and has since fallen to 1C above, still room to lower before the month is out.

As I've mentioned earlier I still think the threat of frost or freeze is still on the table later this month that could come around Halloween week.

Ha ha..I would so laugh if it snowed on Halloween.....LOL....

[dhweather]

OK guys, if you had to say today what you thought winter 2013-14 would be like in North Texas, what would you say?

I'm leaning toward near climo temps but dry. Maybe 1-2 light wintry weather events, nothing significant.

[Kalrany]

While Halloween is still very far out I think it's a period that is worth monitoring obviously. Francisco's recurve in the WPAC and -SOI's appearing again, it's a possibility that around the holiday the weather may be frightful for trick or treaters. First half of the month for DFW airport was 4C+ above normal and has since fallen to 1C above, still room to lower before the month is out.

As I've mentioned earlier I still think the threat of frost or freeze is still on the table later this month that could come around Halloween week.

Ha ha..I would so laugh if it snowed on Halloween.....LOL....

Don't knock it! Some of my best memories are trick-or-treating in the snow! It's great fun to have costumed snowball fights.

[weatherdude1108]

The Ewx office loves to tease us.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SURFACE RIDGING AND A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK TO FLAT RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES RECOVER. ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DUE TO A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH FRONT AS MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE MINIMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE RETURN STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THE ECMWF WHICH WAS TRENDING WEAKER LIKE THE OTHER MODELS IS NOW KEEPING IT FAIRLY STRONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH RESULT IN IT GENERATING SOME QPF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH NO POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND MONITOR IF THE OTHER MODELS NOW TREND TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM.

JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT. STAY TUNED.

[dhweather]

12Z ECMWF looks very wet for Halloween.

[Portastorm]

One always likes to see this kind of language in an AFD! And yes, both the GFS and Euro suggest a MAJOR weather event around that time. A very cold, very wet system shaping up. Should be interesting.

The Ewx office loves to tease us.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SURFACE RIDGING AND A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK TO FLAT RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES RECOVER. ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DUE TO A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH FRONT AS MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE MINIMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE RETURN STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THE ECMWF WHICH WAS TRENDING WEAKER LIKE THE OTHER MODELS IS NOW KEEPING IT FAIRLY STRONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH RESULT IN IT GENERATING SOME QPF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH NO POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND MONITOR IF THE OTHER MODELS NOW TREND TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM.

JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT. STAY TUNED.

[Tireman4]

AFD from HGX....hummm....



THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE WAY THEY HANDLE A WEEKEND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE...THE ECMWF BEING THE AGGRESSOR AND
DIGGING THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE INTO NE`ERN TEXAS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...GENERATING AREAWIDE QPF. THE DRY GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
WAVE AND QUICKLY DISPLACES IT INTO THE SE U.S. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE IN NWP OPINION AND HAVE
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS MORE INTERIOR COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. 12Z ENSEMBLE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FROPA AT MID-WEEK...WITH THE FASTER
GFS (SURPRISE!) PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY/EURO
ON THURSDAY. BOTH DO PROG A NICE SHOT OF RAIN AHEAD OF A DEEP
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/DESERT SW TROUGH/CLOSED-OFF LOW. SO...AFTER A
WEEK OF BENIGN WEATHER (WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING OF THAT
POSSIBLE QUICK-PASSING WEEKEND S/W)...


HALLOWEEN WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO BE MUCH SCARIER. 31

[Rgv20]

Let the fun begin! 0zGFS Snowfall Forecast valid for Halloween morning..



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[dhweather]

The 00Z ECMWF isn't nearly as promising for rain next week, practically none at all.

The AFD for FTW is interesting:


EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR
NORTH TEXAS IS THAT ON MONDAY AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY WE WILL SEE
RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A RAPID RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE AND SPRING-LIKE WEATHER TO THE REGION. BEYOND
THAT...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE FLOW DIFFERENCES FROM
MODEL TO MODEL AND MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN THAT PRECLUDE CONFIDENCE
IN ANY ONE SOLUTION MOVING FORWARD FOR NORTH TEXAS.

FOR EXAMPLE...RAW MODEL OUTPUT FOR DFW AIRPORT ON NEXT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON /OCTOBER 30/...

22/00Z GFS...TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN LIGHT SNOW AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 MPH.

22/00Z ECMWF...TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 60S...CLOUDY WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.

THIS IS JUST AN EXAMPLE OF ENORMOUS DIFFERENCES OF RAW MODEL
OUTPUT HERE LOCALLY...BUT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS
TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IN GENERAL.
WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY IN THE WEEK
AHEAD...HERE ARE SOME GENERAL TAKE AWAYS...

DESPITE THE GFS RAW MODEL OUTPUT...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NORTH
TEXAS ARE INCREDIBLY SMALL. THE ONLY REASON I EVEN BOTHERED TO
MENTION IT IS BECAUSE THE GFS RAW MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS SNOW OVER
NORTH TEXAS ON OCTOBER 30TH...SO IT IS OUT THERE FOR PUBLIC
CONSUMPTION. THERE IS NO ENSEMBLE OR ALTERNATIVE MODEL SUPPORT FOR
THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ACTUALLY MORE MODEL SUPPORT
INDICATING THAT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WILL GET WRAPPED
UP INTO THIS SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAINTAINED TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVEN AT THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY NEXT WEEK.

DO HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME BROAD BRUSHED 20 POPS BECAUSE THERE WAS ENOUGH
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO SUGGEST ONE STRONG PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH STRONG GULF MOISTURE
RETURN LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ANY FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FORECAST DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIME THE
LARGE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE GREAT PLAINS.

[Portastorm]

I say this every year but will say it again ... I hope you folks in North Texas appreciate your local NWSFO. Those guys/gals in Fort Worth write some of the best AFDs out of any Texas-based NWSFO in my opinion. They take time to examine all the facts and do a great job explaining their reasoning for forecasts. You may take issue with a forecast but I don't think you could ever take issue with how they share their reasoning and provide information for the general public. I think their top notch, myself.

Thanks for sharing that discussion, dhweather.

[dhweather]

that's Dennis Cavanaugh at FWD - he writes the best AFD's I've ever read. Thorough and detailed.

[gboudx]

I can always tell a Cavanaugh AFD when I start reading. He lays everything out and describes the atmospheric setup in detail. He's the Tolkien of AFD authors.

[Ntxw]

Don't you just love it when the S word is thrown around and we get maps?!?!

The odds of that, as mentioned by the great FW AFD, is very small, but it's interesting both GFS and Euro had it for someone in Texas at some point. The models are swinging wildly back and forth both euro and GFS. This usually means some kind of weather is going to happen they just can't latch on to it yet. Still think a raw, cool to cold Halloween is a good possibility and wet depending on how a system that is thousands and thousands of miles away behaves.

Edit: In all due respect, if the Canadian says it's so, it is so!

[gpsnowman]

Bundle up kids!! Here comes the cold. The past several Halloweens have been quite mild so I guess we are due for a chilly one. Just hope it is not too wet for all the trick or treaters. I will be out there with mine. I claim all Snickers bars.

[Rgv20]

Still plenty of differences in the GFS and Euro Ensembles on the details but its starting to look like Texas might get cool/cold weather around Halloween!

6zGFS Ensembles Temperature forecast, anywhere from 9 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit below normal.


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[cctxhurricanewatcher]

So according to the Captain Crunch theory, Cold Halloween= Cold Thanksgiving and Christmas?

[gboudx]

So according to the Captain Crunch theory, Cold Halloween= Cold Thanksgiving and Christmas?

Not necessarily those 2 days specifically. I think just colder than average for DFW.

[ravyrn]

:uarrow:

I say this every year but will say it again ... I hope you folks in North Texas appreciate your local NWSFO. Those guys/gals in Fort Worth write some of the best AFDs out of any Texas-based NWSFO in my opinion. They take time to examine all the facts and do a great job explaining their reasoning for forecasts. You may take issue with a forecast but I don't think you could ever take issue with how they share their reasoning and provide information for the general public. I think their top notch, myself.

Thanks for sharing that discussion, dhweather.

Agreed, his AFD's are top notch.