Global model runs discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Anything that forms in the Caribbean as advertized by the last few runs of the GFS would be a threat to the Florida Peninsula with those steering currents especially South Florida so while its definately not it the range to say its going to happen it needs to be monitored just in case especially if its still on the model runs next week in the same time period.

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[Sanibel]

Pushing the end of the season as far as supporting conditions.


There's something trying to curl NE in the Atlantic from Puerto Rico.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS shows development in the Caribbean and sends it WNW all the way in to Mexico so what this tells us is we need to wait a little longer before we can key in on potential landfall or even development but it does start the beginnings of development around hr 192 which means it seems to be moving up development to pre truncation which IMO is important to whether this develops or not

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

GFS and FIM still shows a low but have decreased the intensity on the latest runs. The CMC is also showing a weak low now. ECMWF does not show development and keeps an open wave. All three models send the wave into Central America.

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 12Z GFS run ends. It is developing something from an easterly moving wave in the Caribbean but it looks like the development timeline pushes back some with development not starting until 264 hours from now:

[blp]

Here is how the 12Z GFS run ends. It is developing something from an easterly moving wave in the Caribbean but it looks like the development timeline pushes back some with development not starting until 264 hours from now:

[img]http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/1232/zzb.gif[/]

Yea the GFS has pushed it back some but now the CMC is showing a 1007 low in the E. Carribean similar to 12z GFS in 240 hrs. The GFS and FIM may have been to fast last night. I have a feeling the 12z euro is going to start showing something in the E. Caribbean.

12z CMC

[gatorcane]

Interesting that the CMC is latching on now. Curious if the ECMWF will show something or not.

I think the takeaway from these models runs is that seems like something may try to get going in the Caribbean mid to late next week timeframe.

[alienstorm]

The 06Z GFS has backed off development in the Caribbean and now shows a system off to the NE of Puerto Rico in la la land. I think it safe to say good reddens to the 2013 Hurricane Season.

[HurrMark]

GFS gets something going around 9-10 days, with a closed low around 12 days. Still la-la land.

[cycloneye]

If models keep the system alive by less than 144 hours,then things will get interesting.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS shows it developing in the Western Caribbean and heading NW but it starts around 240 hours so still in la-la land.. It's a very classic late October/early November track.

[blp]

The 12Z GFS shows it developing in the Western Caribbean and heading NW but it starts around 240 hours so still in la-la land.. It's a very classic late October/early November track.

Yes still far out and keeps pushing back. The 12z GFS was the strongest run to date. We need to see the Euro bite before it gets interesting. I suspect it will soon to some degree, maybe something weak. The MJO forecast for the Euro is still quite strong though so the potential is there.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12Z GFS shows it developing in the Western Caribbean and heading NW but it starts around 240 hours so still in la-la land.. It's a very classic late October/early November track.

actually it starts development at about 204 but doesnt get going really until that 240 hr as mentioned

[Hammy]

I have zero faith in the models at this point this year, but will add given the MJO forecast, that November tends to be when strange things tend to happen in the tropics.

[blp]

12z FIM starts developing around 174hr in the ECarib and strengthens as it heads west into WCarib. It continues to show a hurricane in the fantasy zone. Both the GFS and FIM are now consistently showing very favorable conditions in the long run. The one thing that is still inconsistent is the area of origin as the GFS favors WCarib. versus FIM with ECarib.

12z 300hr

[SFLcane]

drives into the boc on the fim..with 60-70kt shear in the gulf now i would not worry to much about impacts for florida or anywere in the US for that matter. still few weeks left though

[Alyono]

lets hope the FIM is dead flat wrong.

That type of cane as large as it is, would flood everywhere from Haiti west, including as far south as Panama

[gatorcane]

drives into the boc on the fim..with 60-70kt shear in the gulf now i would not worry to much about impacts for florida or anywere in the US for that matter. still few weeks left though

I guess that assumes the upper-air pattern stays the same across the Gulf and Florida, at least the southern half the next couple of weeks. I noticed that the GFS shows a more favorable upper-air pattern in the 12Z over the Western Caribbean and consequently develops a more robust system there as opposed to the 18Z. Notice the shear over the Southern Gulf and Southern Florida is not too bad. Of course we are talking way out there in la la land so take this all with a grain of salt!

12Z GFS 200MB flow at 360 hours:


18Z GFS 200MB flow at 348 hours for comparison:

[cycloneye]

Hey guys,the conservative UKMET has something in Caribbean and is less than 144 hours.



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.3N 71.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.10.2013 14.3N 71.4W WEAK

00UTC 31.10.2013 14.3N 74.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[floridasun78]

Hey guys,the conservative UKMET has something in Caribbean and is less than 144 hours.



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.3N 71.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.10.2013 14.3N 71.4W WEAK

00UTC 31.10.2013 14.3N 74.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

we need more models support and ukmet