Big time concern that the NCEP model is underdoing pressure heights in the US EC and western atlantic throughout the forecast period.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus06.html
And the model of the day for the mid period because it has the best handle on the latge scale features?
Last night's euro.
You know the operational GFS is having a bad day when it's an outlier in the ensemble group.
MW
NCEP Medium Range Model of the Day...Last Night's Euro
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JetMaxx
I'm very concerned this monster will track much farther south than many models are indicating....1) because the ECMWF does better with intense hurricanes, and it has consistently brought the hurricane west toward the Turks and Caicos, then WNW through the Bahamas...and 2) Isabel is now becoming so extremely intense, she has created her own enviroment...and will serve to "pump up the ridge" to the north of the hurricane.
This hurricane is now a category 5, and from the Dvorak images, continues to intensify:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg
This hurricane is now IMHO getting close to being another Mitch or Allen...with 3 hour T-values in the 7.1-7.2 range, and continuing to deepen (the dark blotches have increased inside the solid white ring during the past couple hours since the TSAB rating of 7).
I now believe this hurricane has sustained winds of 140-145 kts and a pressure in the 915 mb range (and wish to God a recon flight was in there to verify my suspicions)...a hurricane this large and intense will be very difficult to forecast....just as Mitch and Camille were.
This hurricane is now a category 5, and from the Dvorak images, continues to intensify:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg
This hurricane is now IMHO getting close to being another Mitch or Allen...with 3 hour T-values in the 7.1-7.2 range, and continuing to deepen (the dark blotches have increased inside the solid white ring during the past couple hours since the TSAB rating of 7).
I now believe this hurricane has sustained winds of 140-145 kts and a pressure in the 915 mb range (and wish to God a recon flight was in there to verify my suspicions)...a hurricane this large and intense will be very difficult to forecast....just as Mitch and Camille were.
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