Possible development in the Caribbean

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blp
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Re: Development in the Caribbean Next Week?

#21 Postby blp » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:19 pm

12z FIM develops a full hurricane now. It develops the second wave from the E. Caribbean.

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#22 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:44 pm

That's still in fantasyland though (i.e. beyond 7-10 days)?
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#23 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:07 pm

Seems like the global models are latching onto the wave in the far eastern Atlantic. It has just been introduced on the surface analysis plot. The models are not as bullish on Caribbean development for the wave that is approaching the Leewards.

But yes, it's long-range what that FIM model is showing. The FIM also hints at some development of the Leewards wave but has backed off some on what is what showing a few days ago as has the GFS.

You can see both waves here:
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Re: Development in the Caribbean Next Week?

#24 Postby blp » Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:06 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That's still in fantasyland though (i.e. beyond 7-10 days)?


Understood, the point is to show the potential and that the GFS, FIM and CMC have been showing for several days now varying degrees of development so it is not just the typical GFS phantom runs you now have three models going back and forth. All I need to see is Euro jump on board and then I will take it seriously.
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Re: Development in the Caribbean Next Week?

#25 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 24, 2013 5:36 am

Unfortunately, I find it impossible to take anything this year seriously. Will believe it when I see it.
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Re: Development in the Caribbean Next Week?

#26 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 24, 2013 6:21 am

This is a model storm at this point and I think this discussion should be in the global models thread.
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Re: Development in the Caribbean the Week After Next?

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 26, 2013 5:38 am

I think after this Saturday morning discussion from the San Juan NWS the thread reopens.

NEXT WAVE
WILL REACH THE AREA EARLY TUE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

THIS WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CARIB SEA MID NEXT WEEK
WHERE A BROAD LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM POSSIBLY EVEN A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS ON TOP OF
IT. BROAD LOW/POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL EITHER MEANDER FOR
SVRL DAYS IN THE CNTRL/ERN CARIB SEA AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST ECMWF
OR LIFT SLOWLY NWD NEXT FRI-SAT PER LATEST GFES ALONG AN INVERTED
TROF FCST TO SET UP ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIG HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.

SINCE YESTERDAY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY NOW A SHOW A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVR THE CNTRL/ERN CARIB SEA MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DIFFER WHEN EXACTLY WILL DEVELOP AND WHEN IT
WILL LIFT NORTH. POSSIBLE TRACKS RANGE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 62W AND 70W
WITH MOST OF THE CLUSTERING OVR THE MONA PASSAGE.
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Re: Development in the Caribbean the Week After Next?

#28 Postby OURAGAN » Sat Oct 26, 2013 5:46 am

It's the vigorous wave at 40 W
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Re: Possible development in the Caribbean?

#29 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:31 am

06z gfs...nada

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE
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#30 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:18 am

00Z ECMWF shows something now at 240 hours:

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#31 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:25 am

And here is how the FIM-7 run ends. It's 336 hours out but development starts in the Eastern Caribbean on this run in about a week :eek:

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Re: Possible development in the Caribbean?

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:26 am

Nice 850mb vorticity.

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#33 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:58 am

the FIM is basically showing destructive hurricane conditions over half of Florida, over all of Cuba, extending to Jamaica

That looks like one of the largest WPAC storms
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#34 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 26, 2013 9:33 am

Climo is now in its terminal descent...unlike the ramp up (which was an epic fail) I really believe the ramp down this year. That long range FIM image looks ridiculous...even in the heart of an active season let alone November in a season that wasn't.
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Re:

#35 Postby CourierPR » Sat Oct 26, 2013 9:49 am

psyclone wrote:Climo is now in its terminal descent...unlike the ramp up (which was an epic fail) I really believe the ramp down this year. That long range FIM image looks ridiculous...even in the heart of an active season let alone November in a season that wasn't.


Climatology only speaks to longterm patterns. Those patterns include instances of anomalies. I wouldn't discount a system developing as progged by the models.
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#36 Postby islandguy246 » Sat Oct 26, 2013 10:00 am

i hope it isn't a repeat of Tomas in 2010.
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Re:

#37 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 26, 2013 10:06 am

gatorcane wrote:And here is how the FIM-7 run ends. It's 336 hours out but development starts in the Eastern Caribbean on this run in about a week :eek:

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/9295/sj8c.png


:eek: :eek:
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Re: Possible development of Central Atl Wave in the Caribbean?

#38 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 26, 2013 10:16 am

The models are not registering the 2013 negativeness. Kinda thin as it looks. I'd bet against it.
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Re: Possible development of Central Atl Wave in the Caribbean?

#39 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 26, 2013 10:16 am

Alot of the this mornings GFS ensembles have a pretty strong hurricane near S.FL.. season might not be done just yet.
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Re: Possible development of Central Atl Wave in the Caribbean?

#40 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 26, 2013 10:19 am

Here comes the catalyst..

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