Possible development in the Caribbean

[Gustywind]

Here comes the catalyst..

Very nice signature for the twave near the 40W. Juicy convection in vicinity and large size enveloppe. Let's wait and see that could happens from that one. Time will tell.

[CourierPR]

Alot of the this mornings GFS ensembles have a pretty strong hurricane near S.FL.. season might not be done just yet.

To quote that great philosopher, Yogi Berra, "It ain't over 'til it's over." It only takes one storm to make your hurricane season a bad one. I remember not preparing for Wilma in 2005 because we all thought it would turn out to be a weak storm. I think I will wait to see if the models totally drop this potential system.

[cycloneye]

For those who didn't saw the early morning discussion about this from the San Juan NWS,here it is.

NEXT WAVE
WILL REACH THE AREA EARLY TUE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

THIS WAVE WILL STALL OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CARIB SEA MID NEXT WEEK
WHERE A BROAD LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM POSSIBLY EVEN A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS ON TOP OF
IT. BROAD LOW/POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL EITHER MEANDER FOR
SVRL DAYS IN THE CNTRL/ERN CARIB SEA AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST ECMWF
OR LIFT SLOWLY NWD NEXT FRI-SAT PER LATEST GFES ALONG AN INVERTED
TROF FCST TO SET UP ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIG HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.

SINCE YESTERDAY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY NOW A SHOW A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVR THE CNTRL/ERN CARIB SEA MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK BUT DIFFER WHEN EXACTLY WILL DEVELOP AND WHEN IT
WILL LIFT NORTH. POSSIBLE TRACKS RANGE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 62W AND 70W
WITH MOST OF THE CLUSTERING OVR THE MONA PASSAGE.

[cycloneye]

This ASCAT pass made at 8:55 AM EDT shows some Tropical Storm force winds.

[Hurricaneman]

I believe that this is going to develop but the models seem to be all over the place with the 6zGFS having the least development while the FIM is the most robust and would be a complete disaster for Cuba and Florida, even the Euro is showing more development than the GFS which is showing me that with its inconsistency since its upgrade so the Euro may be the way to go on this one

And for those asking why no percentages. It would be because development isn't expected within 5 days but after 5 days is when things as modeled would get interesting

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[floridasun78]

it look shear from west you see spin but all storms are too east of center

[Hurricaneman]

Another thing I noticed with this is that I'm not sure its the C Atlantic wave it develops but something behind it because by 72hrs this is entering the Caribbean while theres no development until a few days later by the windward islands or just west of

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 144 hours.

[Blown Away]

Think latest FIM still shows a cane, but farther E near Haiti...

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 12Z CMC run ends with a hurricane in the Western Caribbean, 982MB:

[Sanibel]

That is the best wave all year. Maybe things are turning at the last moment and conditions will allow a November hurricane. There have been November hurricanes in the Caribbean before. Stay tuned. Same bat time same bat channel...

[TheStormExpert]

That is the best wave all year. Maybe things are turning at the last moment and conditions will allow a November hurricane. There have been November hurricanes in the Caribbean before. Stay tuned. Same bat time same bat channel...

The recent winter started late so you never know. But I'm not buying anything yet with how pathetic this season has been.

[floridasun78]

so not wave by 45w that gfs show it other one

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 12Z NAVGEM ends with the system turning north in the Central Caribbean:

[Hurricaneman]

I dont have a pic of it but the 12zGFS ensembles show this possibly being anywhere from north of Puerto Rico to the SW Caribbean so its seems to be arguing with itself so while it looks like development will probably happen we still have no idea where this is going to track and hasnt really been narrowed down at all from a few days ago its really still anywhere from a possible location from north of Puerto Rico to just north of Panama in 10 days

The 12zGFS ensembles have this in the central Caribbean as maybe a TS
The 12zGFS Operational have this NE of Houndoras as a TS
The 0zEuro has this in the Central Caribbean as maybe a TD
The 12zCMC has this in the same location as the 12zGFS but as a hurricane
The 6zFIM7 has this in the close to Key West as a hurricane
The 12zNAVGEM has this south of Hispaniola as a TS

so based on this it needs to be watched but we'll have a much better idea of what will happen by sometime next week



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Blown Away]

Looking at the size of the wave, maybe the FIM seeing a giant system in the Caribbean is a possibility...

[cycloneye]

No bite yet from NHC.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS ensembles show a fairly strong system.

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM-7 turns the system north in the Eastern Caribbean. Luis look at this at 192 hours:



240 hours:

[cycloneye]

UKMET is back with development albeit weak.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.7N 75.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 31.10.2013 12.7N 75.9W WEAK

00UTC 01.11.2013 12.0N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.11.2013 12.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE