Possible development in the Caribbean

[Alyono]

And here is how the FIM-7 run ends. It's 336 hours out but development starts in the Eastern Caribbean on this run in about a week

Hang on 1 second

You plotted the 60km resolution FIM. Check out the 30 km resolution version of the same 0Z model run. It has the TC well north of Haiti!

60km resolution runs are garbage

[Hurricane Alexis]

And here is how the FIM-7 run ends. It's 336 hours out but development starts in the Eastern Caribbean on this run in about a week

Hang on 1 second

You plotted the 60km resolution FIM. Check out the 30 km resolution version of the same 0Z model run. It has the TC well north of Haiti!

60km resolution runs are garbage

How come there's such a difference?

[SouthFloridian92]

Wouldn't that "only" be a category 1? It looks like a major hurricane, but looking at the color code, it's only about 75 mph.

[Steve H.]

Regardless of If and Where this TC may form, shear is still pretty strong across most of the basin. Tough to get a TC going in these conditions currently.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The most likely solution at this point is a weak area of low pressure that forms from the wave and tracks into the East Caribbean before curving north across Hispaniola. Wind shear will be too strong for development, and it's unlikely to get into better conditions farther west like the FIM and CMC suggest.

[Alyono]

And here is how the FIM-7 run ends. It's 336 hours out but development starts in the Eastern Caribbean on this run in about a week

Hang on 1 second

You plotted the 60km resolution FIM. Check out the 30 km resolution version of the same 0Z model run. It has the TC well north of Haiti!

60km resolution runs are garbage

How come there's such a difference?

changing the model resolution drastically affects the results

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fim_jet:&runtime=2013102600&plot_type=wind_10m&fcst=336&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=244&adtfn=0 here is how the 30 km FIM finsihes

[Hurricaneman]

Whats the 12zEuro showing on this potential system

[cycloneye]

Whats the 12zEuro showing on this potential system

Here it is.

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro seems pretty close to a trap and send west solution, alot of interesting days to come with this one

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[gatorcane]

High resolution 12Z FIM-9 is very close to where the ECMWF starts to develop the system. This is 168 hours from now with the system moving slowly WNW:

[cycloneye]

Here is the afternoon brief discussion from the San Juan NWS.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD THE END OF WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE...AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA AND BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER TIME AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.

[floridasun78]

if we see fim 7 happen it bad for Haiti we see that kind track alot in oct and nov

[Alyono]

a request... please show posts of the 10m winds and not the 850mb winds

[hurricanes1234]

I'm sure something or the other will stop it from developing or strengthening. After all, it's 2013.

[cycloneye]

When I look at the wave,I see a copy of Tomas in terms of being large and in the same area.

[gatorcane]

Tomas could be a decent analog:

[boca]

Question is something forming in the Western Carribean bogus and the more likely senario would be would the San Juan NWS is saying something forming and drifting northward as opposed to the Western Carribean.

[Alyono]

Tomas had a large anti-cyclone over it at this point. Tomas is a terrible analog

[Blown Away]

Latest FIM starts developing our system at @120 hours, then slowly moves NW over DR, and then moves WNW towards the SE Bahamas as a decent TS...

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My Opinion on this possible development: http://goo.gl/C1Xjzu

Take a look