EPAC Disturbance 0% / 50%

hurricanes1234 · #1 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Sat Oct 26, 2013 3:14 pm

Does this have any model support? I believe the MJO is still in EPAC.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

hurricanes1234 · #2 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Sat Oct 26, 2013 5:30 pm

I think this will certainly become our next named system. It's already beginning to organise.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #3 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Sat Oct 26, 2013 6:06 pm

Might be too broad for its own good, not to mention the fact it may get sheared by Raymond as it gets closer. That being said, the NAVGEM, GFS, and ECMWF all develop this /to an extent/.

hurricanes1234 · #4 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Sat Oct 26, 2013 6:21 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Might be too broad for its own good, not to mention the fact it may get sheared by Raymond as it gets closer. That being said, the NAVGEM, GFS, and ECMWF all develop this /to an extent/.

I don't think it'll get so close to Raymond that it gets sheared, and Raymond might be gone by that time. Do any of the models support hurricane intensity?

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 26, 2013 6:43 pm

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

hurricanes1234 · #6 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:13 pm

EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT

Not very convincing...

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #7 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:44 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Might be too broad for its own good, not to mention the fact it may get sheared by Raymond as it gets closer. That being said, the NAVGEM, GFS, and ECMWF all develop this /to an extent/.

I don't think it'll get so close to Raymond that it gets sheared, and Raymond might be gone by that time. Do any of the models support hurricane intensity?

No.

#8 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Oct 27, 2013 1:02 pm

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
WEEK WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

supercane4867 · #9 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Oct 28, 2013 12:45 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 28 2013

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

hurricanes1234 · #10 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Mon Oct 28, 2013 3:39 pm

Better chance at development now. Which means that we might finally reach the letter 'S'! First time since 2006 if it really happens.

supercane4867 · #11 Postby **supercane4867** » Tue Oct 29, 2013 7:11 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

hurricanes1234 · #12 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Tue Oct 29, 2013 12:47 pm

Who thinks this will be at or near hurricane strength when it peaks, seeing that the phrase "marginally conducive" has been replaced with "more conducive", and the percentage rose from 30% to 50% in the upcoming 5 days?

Cyclenall · #13 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:14 pm

I don't think I've seen a 0%/50% combo yet. It would be funny to have a 0%/90% or 100% one day :cheesy:

.

#14 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Nov 02, 2013 2:07 pm

Now that Storm2k is back, can this thread be locked? Thanks.

EPAC Disturbance 0% / 50%

EPAC Disturbance 0% / 50%

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