WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

[supercane4867]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 11.3N 147.5E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1010HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 12.1N 144.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



Southeast of Guam

[Meow]

I am so surprised that the U.S. Navy has not noticed this tropical depression.

[ManilaTC]

Just 24 hours after the final bulletin on Lekima, comes this one.

This was mentioned in NWS-Guam's discussion... NRL still no Invest though.

Models unanimously developed and track this system in a classic 'ber-month storm fashion, straight runner towards the Philippines. This may be the first of two storms, the other going almost the same path a week later...

How strong will it get? We'll see.

[euro6208]

It does have a nice moisture envelope but vorticity remains elongated...It is right under an anticyclone which is favorable for development. I won't be surprised if this gets upgraded into our 29th Tropical Cyclone of the season very soon.



Next 24 hours shows a moderate risk for development.

[dexterlabio]

It has a nice spin on vis satloop but I'm waiting to see some decent structure. But that was quick! Last night I was looking for something that the models were seeing to develop, but there was none.

[dexterlabio]

Why am I not seeing a new invest on the NRL site? The only active one is Raymond.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Excited to track this storm, future Krosa. How strong will this storm peak?

I saw that GFS makes this landfall over Luzon, which is bad, due to the fact that they were hit by Utor last August and Nari 2-3 weeks ago.

[euro6208]

Why am I not seeing a new invest on the NRL site? The only active one is Raymond.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

this one has 96W.

[dexterlabio]

Why am I not seeing a new invest on the NRL site? The only active one is Raymond.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

this one has 96W.

Thanks! I think I should replace the old bookmarks now lol.

[euro6208]

Watching the Marianas Loop, I don't see any well defined LLCC and the structure is very poor and convection is warming. It looks like a tropical wave. let's see what JTWC says...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 11.3N 147.5E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1010HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 12.1N 144.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



Southeast of Guam

The one on the Lower right might be Haiyan and will hit Bicol-Visayas area.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA expects a tropical storm from this after 24 hours.

TD
Issued at 04:15 UTC, 27 October 2013

<Analyses at 27/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°20'(11.3°)
E146°50'(146.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 28/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E143°20'(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

not much strengthening over the philippine sea but likely more of a rain event for the PI from a Weak Tropical Storm.

[euro6208]

seems like there is an outage of some sort affecting updates from JTWC and NRLMRY. 96W is not recognized on many weather related sites.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

not much strengthening over the philippine sea but likely more of a rain event for the PI from a Weak Tropical Storm.

expect it to rapidly intensify near China/Vietnam

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Where is the LLCC anyway?

[dexterlabio]

won't say the GFS is showing a weak TS. According to this run it's expected to reach 50kts before landfall. But yes the concern will always be the rain and flashflood.


WP, 96W, 2013102700_F000_100N_1468E_96W, 2013102700, 03, GFSO, 096, 163N, 1223E, 50, 1004


It's expected to be a long tracking system but slowly intensifying, which IMO is possible given the present strong shear in Luzon, along with cool and dry air from the north.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.7N, 146.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 180NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.
A 270952Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

now getting attention...

[ManilaTC]

JMA still a 30kt TD

** WTPQ20 RJTD 272100 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 12.2N 141.3E POOR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 282100UTC 13.7N 135.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

JTWC upgraded it to MEDIUM last night
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N
146.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 143.2E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT YET DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 271448Z TRMM
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED BANDING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. A RECENT WINDSAT
IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WEAKER WINDS AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

But checking on Best Track this morning...
96W INVEST 131027 1200 12.5N 143.0E WPAC 25 1004

NRL also has 96W at 25kts, so possible TCFA by 00z advisory.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

People in Luzon should prepare for a monster....