SIO: Tropical Cyclone 01S

[supercane4867]

First cyclone of the season

[euro6208]

Indian ocean comes alive...

TPXS10 PGTW 270315

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 27/0230Z

C. 12.6S

D. 65.4E

E. SIX/MET7

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .85 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 3.0. DBO PT AND MET
AS CNVCTN IS FRAGMENTED.


UEHARA

[jaguarjace]

I've made an RGB loop.

[Grifforzer]

"se dissipant" in 48 hours from Reunion forecast instead of strengthening like JTWC forecast.

** WTIO30 FMEE 271222 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/1/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2013/10/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 63.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: SW: 190 NW:




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/10/28 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
24H: 2013/10/28 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
36H: 2013/10/29 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
48H: 2013/10/29 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
60H: 2013/10/30 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 CI=2.0

THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLUCTUATED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND DOESN'T DISPLAY CURRENTLY A CURVED BAND PATTERN ANY MORE. THE POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALMOST TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THE LLCC REMAINS DIFFICULT TO BE LOCATED ACCURATELY. (THE LLCC HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 12.6S/64.2E AT 06Z).

THE TRADE INFLOW SUPPLIES THE LOW, BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK EQUATORWARD. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED AT THE WESTERN EXTREMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A MODERATELY SHEAR ENVIRONNEMENT (15-20 KT ACCORDING TO THE LAST CIMSS ANALYSIS). THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD. ON THIS TRACK, IT IS REACHING LOWER ENERGETIC SST (26AOC).

FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TAKE A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STREERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERN EDGE OF A POLAR TROUGH. THE LOWER LAYERS ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN RATHER UNFAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK EQUATORWARD CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL SST.

ACCORDING TO THESE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND IS FORECASTED TO BE DISSIPATED AT TAU 60.

[supercane4867]

Getting sheared...

[jaguarjace]

LLCC is exposed.