EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE SHOWN THAT RAYMOND HAS A CLOSED
AND WELL-DEFINED EYE...BUT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS MOSTLY BEEN
OBSCURING THAT FEATURE IN CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY. STILL...
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE RISEN TO T4.5/77 KT AND
T4.0/65 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE LATEST UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES ARE 82 KT AND 77 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

SINCE RAYMOND WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE HAD AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT ONLY
18 HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. THIS STRENGTHENING TREND COULD CONTINUE FOR A
LITTLE LONGER WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...BUT
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WHILE RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND COOLER WATERS LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST.
THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION TREND BUT THEN IS NEARLY IDENTICAL ON DAYS 2
THROUGH 5. THIS FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS ICON AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

RAYMOND IS STILL LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT
THAT FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9 KT...BUT RAYMOND SHOULD BE TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER. ONCE RAYMOND WEAKENS TOWARD THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHWARD DUE TO A WEAKER STEERING
REGIME. THE 06Z GFS RUN NOW AGREES WITH THE EARLIER 00Z ECMWF RUN
IN SHOWING RAYMOND MAKING MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ON DAYS 3 THROUGH
5...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE NOW THAT RAYMOND IS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
THEREFORE A LITTLE EAST AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...
ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 14.2N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 14.9N 116.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 16.0N 117.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 17.1N 117.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 17.9N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 18.8N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 20.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[supercane4867]

Raymond is officially undergoing RI

[hurricanes1234]

Very interesting storm.

[supercane4867]

ADT still on the rise

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 973.5mb/ 84.8kt


Center continues to warm, the eye is clearing out

Cntr Mean
-57.56 -67.08
-60.46 -69.38
-76.06 -67.61
-74.06 -68.34

[Macrocane]

Who would've thought that the most interesting storm of the season was going to occur in the EPAC and until October.

[Yellow Evan]

This might now have a shot at Category 2 status! Most impressive storm in probably a year and a half or more, and definitely the most impressive one in 2013. Long-lasting and strong. Should be an intense ACE contributor.

Eh, Daniel 12 was IMO alomst as good as Raymond, if not as good IMO. Still, Raymond makes up for all of the lack of intense storms this year.

[Yellow Evan]

Wonder if Raymond can finish the job and become a major for the 2nd time this season?

[supercane4867]

[hurricanes1234]

Lovely eye.

[Yellow Evan]

Raymond looks 80-85 knts IMO, not 75 knts.

[hurricanes1234]

Raymond looks 80-85 knts IMO, not 75 knts.

Yes, it's likely a Category 2 at the moment. There's a relatively clear eye surrounded by a partial ring of very deep convection.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Disagree with this being a Category 2 already. The NHC may be able to squeak out 80 knots.

SAB is in at T4.0/65kt.

[supercane4867]

80kt seems reasonable for now based on T4.5 from TAFB

EP, 17, 201310271800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1420N, 11630W, , 1, 77, 2, 979, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, CL, VI, 1, 4545 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

SSD still at 4.0

20131027 1800 14.1 116.3 T4.0/4.0 17E RAYMOND

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Indeed up to 80 kt.

EP, 17, 2013102718, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1163W, 80, 979, HU

[hurricanes1234]

The only thing for me going against Category 1 status right now is that this eye is really clearing out, even in IR imagery.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The eye has continued to warm over the past hour. I'd like the -70C convection to wrap around a little further and become more uniform before saying this is a Category 2.

[hurricanes1234]

Eye is almost cloud-free now.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Now a Cat. 2.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

...RAYMOND NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 116.6W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT IN
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.8/85 KT FROM
THE ADT AT 18Z...AND GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED EVEN IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO THE UPPER BOUND OF THE ESTIMATES. RAYMOND SHOULD BE ABLE
TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO
BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES TO ABOUT 20 KT. AFTER THAT
TIME...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING WHEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE HOSTILE. SINCE RAYMOND STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING SHOULD ALLOW IT
TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH THAN INDICATED IN EARLIER FORECASTS.
IRONICALLY...THIS WILL MOVE THE CYCLONE INTO A HIGHER-SHEAR AND
LOWER-SST ENVIRONMENT MORE QUICKLY...AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST NOW SHOWS A MORE SUDDEN DROP OFF IN THE WIND FORECAST
AFTER 36 HOURS. RAYMOND COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND
DISSIPATED BY DAY 5. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD NOW THAT THE LARGE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS SHUNTING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD OVER MEXICO. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/8 KT...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD
BY 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH. ONCE ALL THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY IN A FEW DAYS...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES TO THE EAST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 14.5N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 15.2N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 16.4N 117.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 17.3N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 17.9N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[supercane4867]

Disagree that Raymond has peaked