Possible development in the Caribbean

[blp]

Just got first look today at the models and it is clear to me that models are in two camps with the GFS and Euro showing the vorticity interacting with South America and thus keeping the vorticity weak until it reaches the break in the ridge where it pops out into the Central Caribbean. The other camp has the CMC, FIM and Navgem which have enough of the vorticity stay off the coast of S. America to develop in the E. Caribbean and be stronger late in the run.

All the models do agree that a weakness will develop but will be short lived and will be filled in by another ridge. The question will be where will the low be during this time and will there be even anything left after its interaction with S. America.

Plenty of runs to go before we sort this out. It will be interesting to see what happens. I am just glad we are tracking something.

[cycloneye]

Just got first look today at the models and it is clear to me that models are in two camps with the GFS and Euro showing the vorticity interacting with South America and thus keeping the vorticity weak until it reaches the break in the ridge where it pops out into the Central Caribbean. The other camp has the CMC, FIM and Navgem which have enough of the vorticity stay off the coast of S. America to develop in the E. Caribbean and be stronger late in the run.

All the models do agree that a weakness will develop but will be short lived and will be filled in by another ridge. The question will be where will the low be during this time and will there be even anything left after its interaction with S. America.

Plenty of runs to go before we sort this out. It will be interesting to see what happens. I am just glad we are tracking something.

You summarized all very good. We are far from having a clear picture about when,where and direction of anything that may develop.

Gatorcane, I edited the title to take out the reference to the Central Atlantic Wave because is not too clear from where development will start if it does so.

[cycloneye]

Good circulation seen at ASCAT pass made at 8:52 PM EDT.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N46W TO 15N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AND A
DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 42W-50W AS NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 43W-49W.

[gatorcane]

Last night's model runs - looks like they have shifted more to the west with FIM and ECMWF showing a more consolidated system while the GFS is trending weaker and the CMC dropped the system (not shown below):

00Z ECMWF 240 hours:


00Z FIM-8 10M 252 hours:


00Z GFS 240 hours:

[Blown Away]

^ Significant time and west shift, previous runs were near 70W at >300 hours...

[gatorcane]

Yeah it was a significant shift you are right. Here is the TAFB 72 hour graphic with the wave moving west in the Central Caribbean. May have to wait until it gets into the Western Caribbean if it is going to develop:



Also here is an animated vis loop of the wave where you can see it east of the Leeward islands. It is rather vigorous for this time of year. It does have that "look" it may try to make a run at development if it gets some favorable conditions further west:

[Sanibel]

If we went by looks alone it appears to be another weak 2013 wave being overblown by the models. But who knows.

[Hurricaneman]

the 6zGFS and its ensembles seem to be in no agreement with the operational run, the OP run doesn't really develop it while the ensembles develop a significant tropical storm in the same spot as the euro and FIM so I'm not so sure that the GFS can be believed at this time but seems to be slowly coming in line with the other models so in this case when in doubt go with the Euro as it has been best this year

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[floridasun78]

when will nhc add this wave to five day forecast if their do?

[Frank2]

Nothing in the TWO for now no doubt because conditions are so unfavorable - 100+ Knot jetstream winds over Florida ATTM...

Frank

[cycloneye]

The operational GFS doesn't show much developing but the ensembles do in a strong way. By the way,the 2013 syndrome has taken over the wave as it looks far worse than 24 hours ago.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC going crazy again and has a 984MB cane at it's strongest point, 222 hours from now below

Nothing in the TWO for now no doubt because conditions are so unfavorable - 100+ Knot jetstream winds over Florida ATTM...

Frank

The models are lifting that 100K jet stream to the north down the road and hinting at much more favorable conditions...we'll see if it happens though.

For example, here is what the GEM model is showing at 222 hours as far as the upper-level winds. That is one massive upper-level anticyclone sitting over the system with the 100K jet way to the north over the Midwest. Of course it is the GEM

[supercane4867]

The control run of 12Z GFS ensemble develops the system north of Haiti and move westward to Yucatan by day 12

[blp]

12z Navgem also shifted west and is now showing one of the stronger runs.

[gatorcane]

Latest VIS loop of the wave east of the Leewards. Clear cyclonic spin is evident with plenty of convection. It may not look as good today as it did yesterday but I can see why the models are trying to develop this down the road in the Caribbean with the spin I am seeing from this wave.

Still arguably one of the best waves we have seen in the entire 2013 season approaching the Leewards:

[Alyono]

we sure it is the wave east of the islands and not a trailing feature?

[cycloneye]

we sure it is the wave east of the islands and not a trailing feature?

That is why I edited the title to drop the Central Atlantic Wave mention as things are still not clear from where any development will occur if it happens at all.

[cycloneye]

Maybe some light about trigger? From the San Juan NWS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE
AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PROMOTING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. STAY TUNED.

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM-8 10M graphic at 240 hours for comparison purposes with the other global models: