WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

convection on the decrease again and becoming elongated but i still expect a tropical cyclone at anytime. TCFA later on today.

[dexterlabio]

if models are correct, it is not yet expected to develop into a TS within the next 48 hours. Let's see what it will do as it nears Luzon. VWS will be a problem here.

[ManilaTC]

the NOAA RAMMB CIRA Page has not updated... Are there any issues that you guys know of regarding NOAA products?

[euro6208]

Using SSD satellite fixes, the LLCC remains very disorganized.

We have to wait further.


20131028 0230 13.3 -141.0 T1.0/1.0 96W 96W

nearing depression status...

[euro6208]

outer bands bringing rain and winds to guam. i love this weather!

[stormkite]

Deep convention in the northern half.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2N, 143.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 140.7E APPROXIMATELY 245NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 272231Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM
WITH IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS YET TO FULLY CONSOLIDATE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT WESTERLY OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 100 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[stormkite]

Looks to have moved into good sst 29c patch now but i dont think it will do much until it reach's South china sea.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave C]

Looking at latest loop seems like it may, be consolidating more to the nw of Saipan,around 16n. 138 long.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like the US Military has just now upgraded this to a TCFA. JMA still has it as a Tropical Depression.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Organizing pretty fast and convection moving closer to the center. Can we get a TY from this?

[stormkite]

Looking at latest loop seems like it may, be consolidating more to the nw of Saipan,around 16n. 138 long.

Thinking it may track to and clip the top end of Philippines in the santa ana area and move across that line. As a moderate typhoon at best.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like the US Military has just now upgraded this to a TCFA. JMA still has it as a Tropical Depression.

yep.
WTPN21 PGTW 281100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 140.6E TO 16.5N 132.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8N 139.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N,
140.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 139.7E APPROXIMATELY 305NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING CONTINUES TO REMAIN FRAGMENTED. A 280831Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT
HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND IMPROVED DIFFLUENT WESTERLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
(GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 TO HOURS AS IT TRACKS
GENERALLY WEST AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 291100Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Philippines better get ready...

[euro6208]

PGTW at 1.5
KNES at 1.0...


will we see an upgrade?

[mrbagyo]

Philippines better get ready...

yes, we better get ready ... not just for Krosa but for the upcoming systems as well

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's almost Halloween, All Saints' and All Souls' Day. We should prepare. I hope this is going to be a fishie!

Way more organized as of now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TS Krosa is expected after 2 more warnings.

TD
Issued at 13:20 UTC, 28 October 2013

<Analyses at 28/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°30'(13.5°)
E137°00'(137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10'(14.2°)
E133°55'(133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°)
E130°55'(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

96W INVEST 131028 0600 13.5N 139.6E WPAC 25 1004

Updated best track has pressure at 1004 mb and winds of 25 knots.

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 281558
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 28/1430Z

C. 14.4N

D. 136.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT 2/10 BANDING YIELD A
DT=1.0. MET AND PAT ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON