2013 Cyclones Retirement

[CrazyC83]

I'm looking at the storms from 2013, I would say probably no retirement in the Atlantic (so far - Ingrid some chance but fairly low), but I would agree Mexico has a strong case to retire Manuel from the EPAC list if they so choose.

(Working on probabilities)

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Cyclone Phalin
Typhoon Usagi
Hurricane Manuel
Hurricane Ingrid (low)
INNIT MAN

[CrazyC83]

storm by storm:

Tropical Storm Andrea

Case FOR retirement: None really
Case AGAINST retirement: Minimal land impact
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Barry

Case FOR retirement: Some damage and casualties in Mexico
Case AGAINST retirement: Weak storm with overall little impact
Probability of being retired: 3%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Chantal

Case FOR retirement: None really
Case AGAINST retirement: Minimal land impact
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Dorian

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Erin

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Fernand

Case FOR retirement: Quick spinning storm with some impact in Mexico
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage relatively minor
Probability of being retired: 3%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

Case FOR retirement: None really
Case AGAINST retirement: Minimal land impact
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Hurricane Humberto

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Hurricane Ingrid

Case FOR retirement: Significant damage and fatalities in Mexico
Case AGAINST retirement: Poor retirement record; overshadowed by devastating Manuel
Probability of being retired: 20%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Jerry

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Probability of being retired: <2%

Verdict:

Tropical Storm Karen

Case FOR retirement: None really
Case AGAINST retirement: Fizzled before reaching land; little impact
Probability of being retired: 2%

Verdict:

In the EPAC

Hurricane Manuel

Case FOR retirement: Devastating storm for Mexico; extreme damage and fatalities, among costliest EPAC storms (reports of $4-5 billion)
Case AGAINST retirement: Poor retirement record
Probability of being retired: 70%

Verdict:

All others

(Retirement likelihood <2%)

[supercane4867]

If Alex and Karl weren't retired, neither Manuel would

The last hurricane to impact only Mexico and gain retirement I believe was Kenna back in 2002

[CrazyC83]

If Alex and Karl weren't retired, neither Manuel would

The last hurricane to impact only Mexico and gain retirement I believe was Kenna back in 2002

That is the one case against it indeed, since they clearly have a legitimate retirement case if they wanted to knock Manuel off the list. A better case than any other storm in the western hemisphere for sure...

[galaxy401]

Manuel has the best chance but I'm not confident it will be retired.

[Yellow Evan]

Freda
Oswald
Narelle
Nari
Manuel

NIO does not retire names IIRC

[jaguarjace]

In the Australia region, Oswald and Rusty have officially been retired.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/names.shtml#names

[HurricaneRyan]

I think Ingrid actually has a chance now. It seemed to cause $1 billion in damages.

[wxman57]

I think Ingrid actually has a chance now. It seemed to cause $1 billion in damages.

I haven't seen any damage reports from Ingrid yet (dollar-wise). Remember, though, it's not damage total that determines retirement, it's a country that must request retirement. If Mexico doesn't ask for Ingrid to be retired then it won't .

[CrazyC83]

I think Ingrid actually has a chance now. It seemed to cause $1 billion in damages.

I haven't seen any damage reports from Ingrid yet (dollar-wise). Remember, though, it's not damage total that determines retirement, it's a country that must request retirement. If Mexico doesn't ask for Ingrid to be retired then it won't .

Last I saw was $1.5 billion. Mexico might have a case after all. Manuel is about $4.5 billion.

[Yellow Evan]

I think Ingrid actually has a chance now. It seemed to cause $1 billion in damages.

I haven't seen any damage reports from Ingrid yet (dollar-wise). Remember, though, it's not damage total that determines retirement, it's a country that must request retirement. If Mexico doesn't ask for Ingrid to be retired then it won't .

Last I saw was $1.5 billion. Mexico might have a case after all. Manuel is about $4.5 billion.

Both won't get retired IMO. I won't be shocked if neither get retired. You know how MX is with retirements.

[Meow]

Typhoon Fitow cost about 10 billion USD in China. There should be chances for it to get retired.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

No Atlantic storms will be retired (confidence very high)

Manuel will likely be retired (confidence high)

I wasn't following the typhoon season closely before September, but I think that Haiyan is gone to say the least.... (confidence very high)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Haiyan SHOULD be retired! [together with Yolanda]

[CrazyC83]

Haiyan SHOULD be retired! [together with Yolanda]

I'm sure they will both be retired.

[CrazyC83]

As for replacement names - the following names in the Atlantic and EPAC are NOT available:

Female I names - Ida, Ileana, Inez, Ione, Irene, Iris, Irma, Isabel, Iselle, Isis

Male M names - Marco, Marty, Matthew, Max, Michael, Mitch

[euro6208]

haiyan will definitely be gone

[CrazyC83]

Do we know yet when the WPAC retirements will take place? We know Haiyan will be retired, the question is when.

Also no working documents at all yet on the WMO R IV meeting. Only two names - Ingrid and Manuel - have any chance there.

[Hurricane Jed]

I'd say Ingrid and Manuel have a stronger chance than normal to be retired by Mexico given the uniqueness of the disaster. It was like a perfect setup for disaster. When is the last time Mexico was hit from both sides within such a short time frame?