2013 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Next 5 names on the list...

Krosa - Haiyan - Podul - Lingling - Kajiki

[xtyphooncyclonex]

28-off/11-off/4-unoff is now our tally...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It is a very big change that from severe deficiency, and became EXTREMELY active in October, counting 8 tropical storms and 7 typhoons. Although, the global models are forecasting a typhoon to make landfall over Luzon (PHL) and will rapidly weaken over the South China Sea. The next storm will be named Krosa and may contribute a significant number in our ACE.

[dexterlabio]

GFS has gone crazy, again. Latest run has the eye of a typhoon off the northern tip of Luzon..then in the long range, two more tropical cyclones coming in one after another. The Euro is now picking up the near-term storm as well, and if it pans out, Central Luzon can expect a Halloween tropical storm. I'm not sure about the intensity, but given how strong the previous typhoons in this region have become, I won't be surprised to see another howler. Waiting for 06Z GFS....

[euro6208]

Both euro and gfs develops this into our next storm, krosa...It's expected to make a beeline towards Guam maybe a tropical depression then tracks all the way to the luzon making landfall as a strong tropical storm...We'll see...




Long term GFS showing 3 more storms after krosa but this is fantasy land...

[euro6208]

If GFS 00Z pans out, then november might be a huge month for the Philippines showing a parade of storms hitting one after another including a low tracker towards visayas...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If GFS 00Z pans out, then november might be a huge month for the Philippines showing a parade of storms hitting one after another including a low tracker towards visayas...

SCARY for us who are not yet fully recovered from that monster earthquake (still having aftershocks)..

3 weeks without school here in Cebu and might put more after this storm...

Anyways, speaking about the other storms, will our ACE be above normal after these? We were severely inactive before. Wonder what has been causing this late boom and excited to track these storms.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

SO, FORECAST FROM GFS:

Krosa: Weak tropical storm that hits Luzon on Halloween, rapidly intensifies as a minimal typhoon before making Landfall in China.

Haiyan: Strong typhoon that makes landfall over Central Luzon.
Podul: Weak typhoon that lashes Northern Visayas.



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[dexterlabio]

The next local storms for the Philippines are 'Vinta' and 'Wilma'. 4 more storm to enter the Philippine territory and the local namelist will be completed.

[dexterlabio]

The August TSR forecast for WPAC is at 22/13/7. If we use 1-min wind average (via JTWC), we are now at 25/14/7. If we use the official JMA's record, it's 28/11/6 (I assume typhoons of 100kts and above are Cat3+ on Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale). Either way, I think the activity this year will surpass what was forecast. Models continue to show more tropical cyclones, possibly typhoon, in November.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The next local storms for the Philippines are 'Vinta' and 'Wilma'. 4 more storm to enter the Philippine territory and the local namelist will be completed.

If another storm/depression develops after those 4 storms, PAGASA will have to use their auxiliary list.

[dexterlabio]

'Wilma' sounds so Western for a Philippine local name....obviously, this name is infamous to the Atlantic/Caribbean followers...



06z GFS now shows 2 tropical cyclones. The first system is stronger than was shown in 00z and still tracking towards Northern Luzon. The second system is a typhoon tracking towards Bicol and Visayas area. The latter was long range though, but was consistently shown in previous runs. No third system in this run. Let's see what 12z has...

[euro6208]

Wilma is also a famous name for the WPAC when in 1952, it became the only category 5 worldwide (record still stand) to down a hurricane/typhoon hunter aircraft. Winds in this monster Category 5 peaked at 185 mph. RIP to the 10 men who died...

[euro6208]

If GFS 00Z pans out, then november might be a huge month for the Philippines showing a parade of storms hitting one after another including a low tracker towards visayas...

SCARY for us who are not yet fully recovered from that monster earthquake (still having aftershocks)..

3 weeks without school here in Cebu and might put more after this storm...

Anyways, speaking about the other storms, will our ACE be above normal after these? We were severely inactive before. Wonder what has been causing this late boom and excited to track these storms.

Well if both systems become stronger and long lived then ACE will be above normal. I'm not sure what caused the late boom, maybe the MJO?

[hurricanes1234]

If GFS 00Z pans out, then november might be a huge month for the Philippines showing a parade of storms hitting one after another including a low tracker towards visayas...

SCARY for us who are not yet fully recovered from that monster earthquake (still having aftershocks)..

3 weeks without school here in Cebu and might put more after this storm...

Anyways, speaking about the other storms, will our ACE be above normal after these? We were severely inactive before. Wonder what has been causing this late boom and excited to track these storms.

Well if both systems become stronger and long lived then ACE will be above normal. I'm not sure what caused the late boom, maybe the MJO?

Yes, a very powerful MJO caused this. It was so powerful that when it moved to EPAC, it ended the almost one-year period without a single major hurricane.

[dexterlabio]

We'll see if WPAC will remain conducive to support strong systems even without the MJO. We have one or two possible cyclones in the coming weeks according to the models.

[dexterlabio]

I'm watching the next system the models are hinting to develop after Krosa. Euro is showing a broad low pressure system, albeit weak, tracking towards Visayas and Mindanao. GFS has been showing for several runs now a possible track ranging from Central Luzon to Bicol and Samar region. Looks like this is going to be a big one if ever it develops. The next name is Haiyan, while the Philippines will locally name it as Wilma.

[euro6208]

I'm watching the next system the models are hinting to develop after Krosa. Euro is showing a broad low pressure system, albeit weak, tracking towards Visayas and Mindanao. GFS has been showing for several runs now a possible track ranging from Central Luzon to Bicol and Samar region. Looks like this is going to be a big one if ever it develops. The next name is Haiyan, while the Philippines will locally name it as Wilma.

GFS has haiyan developing somewhere between 160-165E and at 120 hours while another system develops and follows a similar track but hits further south.

Haiyan might be the next big one unfortunately.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm watching the next system the models are hinting to develop after Krosa. Euro is showing a broad low pressure system, albeit weak, tracking towards Visayas and Mindanao. GFS has been showing for several runs now a possible track ranging from Central Luzon to Bicol and Samar region. Looks like this is going to be a big one if ever it develops. The next name is Haiyan, while the Philippines will locally name it as Wilma.

GFS has haiyan developing somewhere between 160-165E and at 120 hours while another system develops and follows a similar track but hits further south.

Haiyan might be the next big one unfortunately.

I feel bad for the earthquake victims, and I live in an area that was Intensity VII in the PEIS. It was so bad...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS develops ''Yolanda/Podul'' directly hitting Surigao, CEBU CITY, Iloilo and Negros....