I am becoming increasingly concern that there will be a bend back toward Florida later in the forecast period. The slowing down of the Hurricane allows the weakness in the ridge to strengthen back. The fact that the NHC mentions that they are not sure how the atmosphere will look (high pressure ridge and trough) gives me more reason to believe in the ECMWF model. I shall wait until the 18Z is release but this model has consistenly pointed the storm toward Florida and as I have been saying all day this is the model of choice at this time.
Real tense days are ahead this weekend. And by the way I wouldn't be surprise to see Isabel strengthen even more.
Ernie
The turn back toward Florida
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Josephine96