WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

The latest invest that pops up. Saved images and radars of this historic event when Haiyan is at it's peak.

[ManilaTC]

This is the Invest that has us weather watchers in the Philippines on edge.

[mrbagyo]

welcome back storm2k...
Nov. 8 or 9 is the projected landfall right

[stormstrike]

Yeah this is the one that GFS has been consistently developing for a week now. It also shows on other models including ECMWF. They only differ by strength of this system.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Welcome back!

Too bad for Visayas...

[ManilaTC]

Last night's 12z model has it back to Bicol-CALABARZON-Manila. It has been consistent with that over the last few days runs.

Manila hasn't been hit by a Major (Cat3 above) Typhoon since Milenyo in 2005.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Last night's 12z model has it back to Bicol-CALABARZON-Manila. It has been consistent with that over the last few days runs.

Manila hasn't been hit by a Major (Cat3 above) Typhoon since Milenyo in 2005.

Did u mean 2006? There was no storm that hit Manila last 2005.

Anyways, we have to be careful and DON'T PANIC. PANIC may cause chaos there in Manila!

[OFF TOPIC: We experienced a 5.2 magnitude aftershock. It was Intensity V on the MIS.]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS shifts further south. Making landfall in Southern Samar, traversing over Northern Cebu, Panay. Reminds me of FENGSHEN/FRANK last 2008, except that this will hit Southern Vietnam and ''will be a powerful cyclone over the Indian Ocean'' - NOT FINAL .

[stormstrike]

I don't know about the Bicol-CALABARZON-Manila track but latest model tracks has it making landfall in the Visayas region

GFS:



NAVGEM:



CMC:



ECMWF:




All of them predicting landfall between 8th and 9th of November.. but of course this could change..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess this might shift to the south again, but the main thing is that, VISAYAS - we - ARE still experiencing powerful aftershocks!

[dexterlabio]

Shifts in model tracks don't matter as long as an actual cyclone hasn't formed yet. But even in that track, CALABARZON area will still be in the northern periphery of a strong typhoon. That's still some nasty scenario for areas from Southern Luzon down to Visayas. Bicol hasn't seen a strong typhoon since Durian in 2006. Definitely keeping an eye on this one!

[euro6208]

Guess what guys and gals, it has now been upgraded to MEDIUM!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N
161.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A BROAD LLCC WITH RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING FORMATIVE BANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY
WARM (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[stormstrike]

This early it's already consolidating. Impressive banding!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe a TCFA soon... 98W got a TCFA after 3 hours!

[stormstrike]

TCFA

JTWC also issued a TCFA for 99W! That was FAST! WOW


WTPN23 PGTW 030530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1N 159.0E TO 7.3N 152.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.1N 158.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N
159.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING FORMATIVE BANDS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND
WEAKER WINDS NEAR THE CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG
EQUATORWARD CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY WARM (28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040530Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 133.1E.
//

[ManilaTC]

AGAIN ONE MORE TIME

[mrbagyo]

this invest really looks seriously ominous.
my guess... it will add up 20+ ACE points.. and that's very conservative

[dexterlabio]

What's interesting is that the bulk of the GFS ensemble members has the track passing through batangas and Cavite provinces while the deterministic GFS track is on the southern edge of the ensemble. Anyway this looks to be a really threatening system for the Philippines.

[mrbagyo]

What's interesting is that the bulk of the GFS ensemble members has the track passing through batangas and Cavite provinces while the deterministic GFS track is on the southern edge of the ensemble. Anyway this looks to be a really threatening system for the Philippines.

wow, Batangas-Cavite area???... that must be very near my location, Tagaytay city...



a quick look at the mighty STR that will steer this system.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What's interesting is that the bulk of the GFS ensemble members has the track passing through batangas and Cavite provinces while the deterministic GFS track is on the southern edge of the ensemble. Anyway this looks to be a really threatening system for the Philippines.

wow, Batangas-Cavite area???... that must be very near my location, Tagaytay city...



a quick look at the mighty STR that will steer this system.

99W is moving west, too far to affect your area. Models are already shifting south...