WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My forecast:




-A reason why it is further west-southwest is because Haiyan had a jog to the southwest, and is moving W-WSW.
*It is not really moving that west-northwest.
*The steering ridge is pushing the storm closer to SOUTHERN LEYTE AND CENTRAL CEBU.
====================================================================================================
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormkite]

Imo Haiyan will gain in intensity over the next few days and then become a very strong / violent typhoon before making landfall in the Philippines.Then will rapidly intensify again into a violent typhoon when it moves back over water in the south china sea.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Rapid Intensification will start soon. Looks impressive!

[stormkite]

Rapid Intensification will start soon. Looks impressive!

It does look impressive and also very scary. The smallest variation's can have a huge affect on the dynamic's on HAIYAN
over the next few day's praying for it's wheels fall off before land fall.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess typhoon force winds will be felt over Central Visayas. The mayor of Cebu is planning to cancel classes on November 7/8 or on both!

[Dave C]

Central convection is building more concentric as it battles some modest easterly shear, also nice feeder band forming from the north quadrant of the storm.

[cebuboy]

This potential typhoon catches my attention today with the news. I'm afraid this will be like Super Typhoon Mike in November 1990s. We are still recovering from an earthquake. God Bless Cebu!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This potential typhoon catches my attention today with the news. I'm afraid this will be like Super Typhoon Mike in November 1990s. We are still recovering from an earthquake. God Bless Cebu!

And there was that tornado over Mandaue and Lapu-lapu...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Probably 50 knots for now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Steering winds push it further south of the forecast track.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We should start preparing here!

[euro6208]

oh i just wish this was going to hit guam instead of the philippines as we are more prepared and our infrastructure is top notch...all concrete...instead of seeing more destruction in the philippines.

[mrbagyo]

I'm expecting a typhoon by tomorrow and I won't be surprised if this will become a major - also by tomorrow.

[euro6208]

strengthening continues...

WDPN33 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN
EXPANSIVE SYSTEM THAT IS STEADILY CONSOLIDATING. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BETTER DEFINED AND CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS DEEPENED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. A
041043Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE EXTENT OF THE FRAGMENTED,
THOUGH IMPROVING, BANDING FEATURES SURROUNDING THE ENTIRETY OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND THE
CUSP FEATURE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES RANGING FROM 35-45 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS EASILY
BEING OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THAT IS HIGHER
THAN NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS FORECAST AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, PREVAIL. TS 31W IS FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH
BY TAU 24 AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLAND OF YAP. BY TAU 72, TS 31W WILL
BE AN INTENSE TYPHOON AT 120 KNOTS NORTHWEST OF PALAU.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS HAIYAN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WHERE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND SEA
SURFACE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND REACHING
PEAK INTENSITY SOMETIME BEFORE LANDFALL WITH THE ISLAND OF SAMAR,
PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
PHILIPPINES THROUGH TAU 96, EVENTUALLY EMERGING IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AT AN INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THUS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE
TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST OBJECTIVE AIDS AND THE WELL-
ESTABLISHED STEERING MECHANISM.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

732
WTPQ33 PGUM 041259
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (31W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
1100 PM CHST MON NOV 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN PASSING SOUTH OF PULUWAT...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH
OR MORE ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
SATAWAL IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...FAIS...ULITHI...
YAP ISLAND AND NGULU IN YAP STATE...AND FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.2N 148.3E

ABOUT 265 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 305 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 955 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE
148.3 EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 MPH. HAIYAN IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS FORECAST TRACK
WILL BRING THE CENTER OF HAIYAN ABOUT ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF
SATAWAL AROUND 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN
IS FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A TYPHOON BY TUESDAY EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[mrbagyo]

I just noticed that late season storms forming below 10 lat. have small CDO with superb banding features... eg. BOPHA, MIKE, and now HAIYAN.

[dexterlabio]

^the difference is this will be a lot larger...GFS and Euro are showing an expansive wind field by landfall. at this early stage of its development, it looks huge.

[euro6208]

166
WTPQ33 PGUM 041524
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (31W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
200 AM CHST TUE NOV 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN INTENSIFYING...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
EFFECTIVE 200 AM CHST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PULUWAT AND
THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR SATAWAL ARE CANCELLED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...FAIS...ULITHI...
YAP ISLAND AND NGULU IN YAP STATE...AND FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.2N 147.6E

ABOUT 310 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 690 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 910 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.6 EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 20 MPH. HAIYAN IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL
BRING THE CENTER OF HAIYAN ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF SATAWAL LATER
THIS MORNING AROUND 7 AM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM HAIYAN IS FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TYPHOON BY THIS EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800
AM.

$$

MCELROY

[euro6208]

I can't stop watching the loop of haiyan...that outflow is just beautiful and insane...

I don't want to jump the gun here but PINHOLE EYE?



Latest Chuuk Image Loop seems to show it if not then we have to wait a few more hours to see if it is one...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (31W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
500 AM CHST TUE NOV 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN CONTINUES INTENSIFYING...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...FAIS...ULITHI...
YAP ISLAND AND NGULU IN YAP STATE...AND FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.4N 147.5E

ABOUT 310 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN
WAS RELOCATED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER ON SATELLITE NEAR
LATITUDE 6.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.5 EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MPH. HAIYAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED AND TURN SLIGHTLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THE CENTER OF HAIYAN ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF
SATAWAL AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM HAIYAN IS FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TYPHOON BY THIS EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

MCELROY