AS: 03A - Tropical Cyclone

[supercane4867]

[euro6208]

12Z GFS has this system tracking all the way to somalia and making landfall as a weak tropical storm...

[supercane4867]

987mb is not a weak TS

Looking very active for this part of world in the coming week

[Grifforzer]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 06-11-2013

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.

[Grifforzer]

The low pressure area over southeast Arabian sea concentrated into a well marked low pressure and lies over the same area.

Prediction of Meteorological Condition
--------------------------------------

The well mark low pressure would move west northwestwards and concentrate into a depression by tomorrow.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Should this develop into a cyclonic storm, this will be named Helen.

[supercane4867]

TXIO25 KNES 061513
TCSNIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90A)
B. 06/1430Z
C. 7.2N
D. 64.5E
E. THREE/MET-7
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...ORGANIZATION IMPROVING WITH DT=1.5 BASED ON 3/10
BANDING. MET=1.0 AND PAT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...SWANSON

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 67.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 64.1E, APPROXIMATELY 735 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING BUT A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD
PREVIOUSLY BEEN LOCATED OVER THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED. WEAKLY
DEFINED BANDS OF CONVECTION REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC. AN OLDER 060719Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM RANGED FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH RAIN FLAGGED 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS
BROADLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA
ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 64.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 56.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF RAS BINNAH, SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
PERSISTED AS IT MOVES IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS, BUT
CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE WEST UNDER MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20
KNOTS) OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE LACK OF
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[jaguarjace]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 56.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 56.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF RAS BINNAH, SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BUILDING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 072318Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC IS BECOMING TIGHTER WRAPPED
AND DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS BROADLY
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[jaguarjace]

[Meow]

IMD upgraded the well-marked low pressure area to Depression ARB 01.

Time of issue: 1430 hours IST Dated: 08-11-2013
Bulletin No.: ARB01/2013/01
Sub: Depression over southwest Arabian Sea.

Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over southwest Arabian Sea and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 08thth November 2013 near latitude 8.00N and longitude 56.50E, about 680 km east-southheast of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 570 km southeast of Socotra Island and 1830 km west-southwest of Minicoy. The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs. It would move west-northwestwards and cross Somalia coast between latitude 8.00 0 N and 10.00N by 10thth November evening.

Under the influence of this system, no adverse weather would occur over India.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 08thth November, 2013.

[Meow]

TCFA



WTIO21 PGTW 081200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0N 57.0E TO 7.2N 51.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
080600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.9N
56.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
56.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 56.1E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF RAS BINNAH, SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 080943Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME TIGHTER WRAPPED
AS DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING ALONG THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT WITH BROADLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS RELAXED TO NOW LOW (05-10 KNOTS) LEVELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CONTINUED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091200Z.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

TXIO25 KNES 081457
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90A)

B. 08/1430Z

C. 8.1N

D. 54.6E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=3.0 BASED ON .7 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=3.0. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. 08/1152Z AMSO AND 08/1319Z
SHOW A BANDING TYPE EYE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

08/1152Z 8.0N 54.9E AMSU
08/1319Z 8.2N 54.8E SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ

[Meow]

JTWC is ready to upgrade this to Tropical Cyclone 03A.

[Meow]

JTWC upgraded the system to Tropical Cyclone 03A.

WTIO31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081151ZNOV13//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 7.9N 54.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N 54.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 7.6N 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 7.4N 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 7.3N 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 7.4N 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 7.8N 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 7.8N 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 081745Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH SHALLOW,
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 081437Z WINDSAT PARTIAL IMAGE
INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE METOP-A IMAGE AND THE PGTW FIX WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED
ON THE WINDSAT IMAGE AS WELL AS ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 03A IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD TOWARD SOMALIA WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PEAK INTENSITY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM MAY PEAK AT A LOWER
INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 081151Z NOV 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21
PGTW 081200).//
NNNN

[hurricanes1234]

Somewhat rare for a tropical cyclone to affect Somalia.

[euro6208]

REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 52.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 817 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, THE BULK OF WHICH IS
DISORGANIZED AND DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, WITH A SMALL
CORE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 082223Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE CONVECTION BUT
ALSO SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 081950Z
OCEANSAT IMAGE INDICATES 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE NOAA-19 IMAGE AND THE PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, DESPITE
INCREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW, BASED
ON OCEANSAT DATA AS WELL AS THE RELATIVELY WEAK BANDING STRUCTURE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 03A IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARD
SOMALIA WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK
INTENSITY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM MAY PEAK AT A LOWER
INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST NEAR TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
NNNN