WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Latest dvorak numbers...

PGTW- 5.0
REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. A W EMB CENTER YIELDS A DT
OF 5.0. PT AGREES WITH DT AND MET IS 4.5. DBO DT.

SSD- 5.5
REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. B
EYE IS EMBEDDED IN CMG AND SURROUNDED BY CDG WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF
6.5. THE AVERAGE DT CALCULATED HOURLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS ENDING AT
1430Z IS 5.75 AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE FT OF 5.5. THE MET IS 4.5 BASED
ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND THE PT IS 5.0.

ADT- 5.3
2013NOV05 145700 5.3 965.3 97.2 5.3 6.7 7.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -28.53 -81.82 EYE/P -99 IR 60.6 7.05 -141.96 SPRL MTSAT1 8.6

RAW skyrocketing to 7.1- a category 5!

Rapid intensification underway!

[euro6208]

Haiyan lashing the western micronesian islands and rapidly deteriorate for our neighboring islands of Republic of Palau and Yap State...

[cebuboy]

Based on the latest forecast this will pass somewhere north of Cebu. Based on Bopha previously that passed somewhere south of Cebu; we don't have any damage from that Typhoon.Therefore, it could mean that this Haiyan won't also do any big damage to Metro Cebu area (the most populous region in the South) (except the northernmost section of Cebu island).

This also mean that my half-marathon run this coming November 10 in Lapu-Lapu City would be a happy one

[cebuboy]

Looks way better than STS Bopha before it was upgraded. I think (hope not real) that this will be a lot stronger than Bopha/Pablo - around 155 kts and 910 hPa.


===============

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Its highly possible.. since it still have more time to spend in the ocean and could rapidly intensity further as it nears the Philippines.

[Dave C]

The island of ngulu will be directly hit. It's ssw of yap but from what I've found from google thankfully there isn't many living there.

[hurricanes1234]

Does Haiyan have a record as to the strongest storm this far south? Hopefully, if it wants to strengthen, it does it now, but falls apart before landfall. Those numbers are simply stunning, especially for this late time of year.

[euro6208]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2570&page=1#commenttop



Dangerous Category 2 Typhoon Haiyan Headed For the Philippines

Update some Jeff Masters and more great updates...



cebuboy, stormstrike, and xtyphooncyclonex and many others are right in the red and orange area with estimated rainfall of 2 to over 24 inches!

[HurricaneHunter914]

This is already a hard hit region of the Philippines, the last thing they need is a potential super typhoon.

[hurricanes1234]

ADT estimates support a low-end Category 4.


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 950.6mb/115.0kt

[euro6208]

This is already a hard hit region of the Philippines, the last thing they need is a potential super typhoon.

after haiyan, GFS develops another storm, our 32nd tropical cyclone of the season to follow and hit the southern main island of mindanao...it's crazy!

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track is up to 105kts and pressure is down to 944 mbs.

31W HAIYAN 131105 1800 7.1N 141.2E WPAC 105 944

[cycloneye]

JMA Upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 5 November 2013
<Analyses at 05/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N7°05'(7.1°)
E141°20'(141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 06/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°00'(8.0°)
E138°10'(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°00'(9.0°)
E135°00'(135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 07/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°05'(11.1°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°30'(12.5°)
E120°05'(120.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)

[euro6208]

18z Best Track is up to 105kts and pressure is down to 944 mbs.

31W HAIYAN 131105 1800 7.1N 141.2E WPAC 105 944

Incredible...now a Category 3 on the SSHS!

ADT:

2013NOV05 173000 6.5 940.2 127.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -54.29 -81.65 EYE -99 IR 60.6 7.16 -141.25 SPRL MTSAT1 8.5

Current intensity!

Wow...



PINHOLE EYE!

[euro6208]

JMA Upgrades to Typhoon.

very late as usual...they must be looking at their own satellite imagery which shows a weaker looking storm (IR).

[Meow]

very late as usual...they must be looking at their own satellite imagery which shows a weaker looking storm (IR).

Both JMA and JTWC use imageries from MTSAT.

[euro6208]

Does Haiyan have a record as to the strongest storm this far south? Hopefully, if it wants to strengthen, it does it now, but falls apart before landfall. Those numbers are simply stunning, especially for this late time of year.

If i can recount, the strongest this far south recently was Super Typhoon Bopha which struck mindanao as a 150 knot Super typhoon- the strongest to hit the island...

Bopha became the second-most southernly Category 5 super typhoon on record and possibly the world when it reach that strength at an astonishing 7.4°N on December 3...

Only Typhoon Louise of 1964 came closer to the equator at this strength, at 7.3°N possibly a world record...later peaked at 190 mph...or 165 knots...



low latitute typhoons are very very common over here but uncommon in the western hemisphere where a storm like bopha and louise would make landfall over suriname, guyana, or french guiana in South America!

if any experts wants to correct me on this, feel free...

[hurricanes1234]

A pinhole eye is certainly present! And just look at that OMINOUS convection around the eye in a perfect ring!



Take a look at these estimates!

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 7.0

[Meow]

Haiyan looks so incredible right now, with incredibly deep convection and a very clear eye.

[euro6208]

2013NOV05 183000 6.6 938.4 129.6 6.6 6.7 7.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -7.79 -82.70 EYE 10 IR 60.6 7.11 -141.11 SPRL MTSAT1 8.4

Approaching Super Typhoon strength!

RAW up to 7.5= 155 knot

[euro6208]

Remember Wilma from 2005 from the AHS? Highest only reach 6.5 on dvorak and ADT at 6.8 and Raw at 7.0 just like what we see over here...

Well haiyan has a higher number than that and numbers still increasing!

Both with PINHOLE EYES!