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Portastorm wrote:Here is what the winter of 1981-82 looked like in terms of overall precip and temp averages.
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natlib wrote:I guess the fact that there are no shades of orange of red should be considered a good thing right!????
wxman57 wrote:natlib wrote:Larry Cosgrove is using 1981-82 as a possible analog for this winter. Anyone have any data on that winter to share?
Was checking Houston record highs/lows for Dec-Feb and I have good news and bad news. The good news was the record high of 81 on Dec. 22, 1981. Bad news is the low of 12 on Jan 11, 1982 and 19 degrees a couple of days later. Those were the only records I saw. It was my second winter in Houston and I don't remember much about it. I remember the winter of 1983-84 quite well, though...
natlib wrote:Steve McCauley....former weather man at WFAA in Dallas had this to say this morning on his facebook page.....
Very encouraging for us winter weather lovers....
And for those of you who have been asking about the upcoming winter season, I have some encouraging news in the ultra long-range forecast for those of you who enjoy Texas snowfall. There are indications in both the European and Japanese models that conditions will be setting up in the Pacific and the North Atlantic such that there will be an increased tendency for very cold air to drain into the United States on a more frequent basis than normal, especially by late January into most of February.
At the same time, an active subtropical jet flowing over these cold air outbreaks should be able to increase our winter precipitation to above normal, especially as we get past mid January. Therefore, the data suggest - although do not guarantee, obviously - that we should see above normal snowfall across north Texas (and indeed much of the country) this winter!
Perhaps the Farmer's Almanac was on to something ?!? We shall see.
natlib wrote:And for those of you who have been asking about the upcoming winter season, I have some encouraging news in the ultra long-range forecast for those of you who enjoy Texas snowfall. There are indications in both the European and Japanese models that conditions will be setting up in the Pacific and the North Atlantic such that there will be an increased tendency for very cold air to drain into the United States on a more frequent basis than normal, especially by late January into most of February.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
OUR NEXT CHALLENGE COMES AT MID WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN AMPLIFIES IT OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF ALSO
SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE BUT IT IS ABOUT 12-18 HOURS SLOWER AND
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY FRIDAY. THE
RESULT OF THE GFS WOULD SPREAD COLD CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
DELAYS THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR/FRONT UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW...WE/VE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF TIMING...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. EITHER WAY.....IT WILL BE
TURNING NOTICEABLY COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS/HIGHS DOWNWARD SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS. HOWEVER...IF THE AIRMASS OF THE GFS PANS OUT...THEN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE
TOO WARM. 75
Big O wrote:
Wxman, are you alluding to the fact that you or your long-range winter weather expert is thinking of 1983-84 as an analog for this winter?
lrak wrote:The Weather Channel 10 day forecast has November 16th and 17th near 80 degrees for the highs in CC TX? IYO will it warm up that quick from the cold weather you all are forecasting? Or is the front going to stall and not make it this far South? I don't understand the CC weather discussion regarding next week![]()
Thanks!
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