WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[stormstrike]

Dry spot around the eye again. There are hints of another EWRC, though it could be as swift and neat as it did previously. The cycle was almost unnoticeable in satellite imagery. I feel another EWRC will just cause an expansion of the strongest winds. Those filling in the eye might be mesovortices, and they are usual for a cyclone this intense. But the eye still looks clean to me.

Oh...I thought it's weakening.. oh well...this would really be the strongest typhoon that I would ever experience..

Well, even if it will pass over Abuyog.....

Well yes.. wherever the shift of track is.. Leyte would always be the front liner..
and looking at the loops I think it's now more moving WNW..

[stormstrike]

warming convection around the eye... it must be going through another EWC and a much larger eye will appear...

I hope it would take long

[Alyono]

what warming convection? I sure do not see it. The EWRC is complete and the larger eye is just now becoming visible on convectional satellite imagery

as for Cebu, not sure about typhoon winds in the city itself. Probably for the northern end of the island, however

[xtyphooncyclonex]

what warming convection? I sure do not see it. The EWRC is complete and the larger eye is just now becoming visible on convectional satellite imagery

as for Cebu, not sure about typhoon winds in the city itself. Probably for the northern end of the island, however

well we'll see... during typhoon Fengshen of 2008, I remembered that even if it was over Masbate, the winds were so strong. Take note that it was just a category 1!

[cycloneye]

What about Metro Manila? Will that city experience Typhoon force winds?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What about Metro Manila? Will that city experience Typhoon force winds?

I guess tropical storm. It's too far north, but still 65 kph winds because that happens whenever a typhoon's bands are nearby.

[hurricanes1234]

I don't think this will weaken much anytime soon. In fact, the eye looks to be clearing out even further, as can be seen in this astonishing image. This could easily be 180 mph now.

[Filipinas50]

Outer Rainbands of Super Typhoon Haiyan Now Affecting the Central Visayas Region ...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't think this will weaken much anytime soon. In fact, the eye looks to be clearing out even further, as can be seen in this astonishing image. This could easily be 180 mph now.

Very impressive!

[hurricanes1234]

More like unbelievable too.

[Filipinas50]

Current Forecast Track Takes the Storm Directly Towards the Resort Island of Boracay ...

[cycloneye]

A word to describe this is "Amazing".

[Macrocane]

With the mild start of the season who would've thought we were going to see these monsters in the late season, I guess the ATL and EPAC energy had to go somewhere and that was the WPAC and the NIND.

[Meow]

An eye can be clear on IR imagery, but it is impossible to be clear on VIS imagery or even MODIS pictures. There are always low-level clouds or even anticyclonic vortices in a mature eye in real.

[PaulR]

seems Ormoc may be the city at most risk.

That city did see nearly 6,000 dead from Thelma in 1991 and it was "only" a tropical storm

Hi, all - I'm back after a long absence. I'd love to spend more time here, but am generally too busy to post, unless a storm is severely threatening relatives, as is the case with Haiyan...

My wife (and therefor I) have relatives in and around Ormoc -- very scary. Back in '91, according to Wikipedia, Thelma's flash flooding killed 4,922 people, with 3,000 missing and now presumed also perished. There are around 4,900 buried in a mass grave...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ormoc#1991_Flash_Flood

That all said, just looking at the map and the storm track, I wonder about Tacloban City (Pop. 221,174). It sure looks primed for a tremendous storm surge coming into that confined bay and strait. I'd think the San Juanico Bridge would also be at great risk.



Can anyone with more information / expertise comment?

[euro6208]

what is causing this not to get an 8.0?

Dark grey convection? Additional warming of the eye?

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM
NORTHWEST OF
KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STY
31W HAS MAINTAINED THE DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL, WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD MAINTAINING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AT 150 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ALONG THE
TRACK REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE PROVIDING AMPLE SURFACE HEATING,
SUPPORTING THE SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STY 31W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY
TAU 72. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LANDFALL WITH THE PHILIPPINES IS ANTICIPATED AROUND TAU 24
AND WILL START TO IMPACT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, LEADING TO A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. STY 31W WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) WHERE SSTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HEAT POTENTIAL WILL NOT SUPPORT THE
STRONGER SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
72 AS IT TRACKS OVER MARGINAL SSTS IN THE WESTERN SCS AND BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER LAND, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN ASIA. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TAUS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[RL3AO]

what is causing this not to get an 8.0?

On a modified Dvorak scale, it would need cold dark grey (CDG) surrounding the eye to get up to 8.0

Right now, the CDG is only 20 to 30% around the eye.

[euro6208]

what is causing this not to get an 8.0?

On a modified Dvorak scale, it would need cold dark grey (CDG) surrounding the eye to get up to 8.0

Right now, the CDG is only 20 to 30% around the eye.

too strict...seems more like a beauty contest or something...

oh how i would love recon right now...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

what is causing this not to get an 8.0?

On a modified Dvorak scale, it would need cold dark grey (CDG) surrounding the eye to get up to 8.0

Right now, the CDG is only 20 to 30% around the eye.

too strict...seems more like a beauty contest or something...

oh how i would love recon right now...

8.0 means perfect storm, and lacks dark gray spots - that's why. Why do you like this to be stronger? To wipe us out?