WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

^LOL. But that's how you do Dvorak analysis.

[RL3AO]

8.0 is supposed to be rare. If you look at a storm like Monica, Gay, or Angela, you will see what a T8.0 really looks like.

[supercane4867]

An eye can be clear on IR imagery, but it is impossible to be clear on VIS imagery or even MODIS pictures. There are always low-level clouds or even anticyclonic vortices in a mature eye in real.

Not common but it can happens

[supercane4867]

8.0 is supposed to be rare. If you look at a storm like Monica, Gay, or Angela, you will see what a T8.0 really looks like.

Neither Monica and Angela had CDG fully surrounded the eye at that time though

[RL3AO]

Either way, Gay was clearly an 8.0

[euro6208]

Either way, Gay was clearly an 8.0

how strong do you think was Gay with that 8.0?

[RL3AO]

Either way, Gay was clearly an 8.0

how strong do you think was Gay with that 8.0?

Gay hit a raw ADT# of 8.7

Some think it was stronger than tip. It could have easily been 175 to 180kt and 865 to 875mb.

[euro6208]

Deadly scenario unfolding with that track towards the Leyte Gulf as it has more time over water and major populated cities like tacloban (biggest city in leyte) right in the path...The shift in the track will take this into a much higher populated region...

[euro6208]

Either way, Gay was clearly an 8.0

how strong do you think was Gay with that 8.0?

Gay hit a raw ADT# of 8.7

Some think it was stronger than tip. It could have easily been 175 to 180kt and 865 to 875mb.

Megi never really got that high but with direct observation, they found winds as high as 175 knots...

[Meow]

Megi never really got that high but with direct observation, they found winds as high as 175 knots...

Really? I could only find 165 knots 890 hPa at 1305Z.

[euro6208]

Megi never really got that high but with direct observation, they found winds as high as 175 knots...

Really? I could only find 165 knots 890 hPa at 1305Z.

As they penetrated Megi's eyewall, the Hurricane Hunters performed the standard practice of maintaining a constant "pressure altitude"--the altitude one would expect to find a 700 mb pressure at in an atmosphere at standard conditions. In order to maintain a constant pressure altitude of 10,000 feet, the aircraft was forced to descend 3,000 feet in altitude as it entered Megi's eye. The aircraft entered the eye at 7,000 feet, so the pressure in Megi's eye was what one would normally find at an altitude 3,000 feet higher in the atmosphere. The aircraft recorded a remarkable increase in temperature of 12°C (22°F) as it crossed from the eyewall into the warm eye of Megi. A 12°C rise in eye temperature is extraordinarily rare in a tropical cyclone. Equally noteworthy were Megi's winds. The Hurricane Hunters measured winds at flight level of 220 mph, which normally translates to a surface wind speed of 198 mph, using the standard 10% reduction. The SFMR surface wind measurement instrument recorded surface winds of 186 mph in regions where heavy rain was not contaminating the measurement, but found surface winds of 199 mph in one region of heavy rain. Now, this measurement is considered contaminated by rain, but at very high wind speeds, the contamination effect is less important than at lower hurricane wind speeds, and it is possible than Megi's surface winds reached sustained speeds of 200 mph.

Jeff Masters

175 knots equals 200 mph...

[ozonepete]

You can see the stadium effect in the eye as well as multiple mesovortices within it. Spectacular.

[supercane4867]

175 knots equals 200 mph...

It's not necessarily representative of the actual sustained windspeed
Final VDM from recon concludes 165kt

URPA12 PGUA 172028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/13:05:40Z
B. 17 deg 57 min N
124 deg 55 min E
C. 700 mb 2138 m
D. 165 kt
E. 015 deg 10 nm
F. 100 deg 177 kt
G. 013 deg 11 nm
H. 890 mb
I. 8 C / 3037 m
J. 20 C / 3088 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0830W MEGI OB 29
MAX FL WIND 190 KT NW QUAD 12:09:10Z
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL

[xtyphooncyclonex]

You can see the stadium effect in the eye as well as multiple mesovortices within it. Spectacular.

Best cyclone of the century. WOAH!

[stormkite]

Let's all pray for the vortex to disintegrate.About now would be nice.

[RL3AO]

Maybe this decade...but lets not go crazy now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's quite windy here and it's dark!

It's already 1:00 pm.

[supercane4867]

When it comes to evaluating tropical cyclone, people always praise the new and forget the past ones

[ozonepete]

It's quite windy here and it's dark!

It's already 1:00 pm.

Wow, you are going to get hammered, but luckily you will be on the south side, the weaker side, of the eye. Anyone close to the north of the eye or of course in the eye is going to have a terrible experience. Please play it safe and find a really strong, concrete and steel building and stay away from windows. Good luck to you.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's quite windy here and it's dark!

It's already 1:00 pm.

Wow, you are going to get hammered, but luckily you will be on the south side, the weaker side, of the eye. Anyone close to the north of the eye or of course in the eye is going to have a terrible experience. Please play it safe and find a really strong, concrete and steel building and stay away from windows. Good luck to you.

But typhoon-force winds expected? Worse than Frank of 2008 - We had strong winds and it was cat 1 typhoon.

Some sources here say that we will have over 60 millimeters of rain in three hours!

It's starting to rain here!