WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

The complete and historical warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

WTPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.2N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.1N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.9N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.1N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.9N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.6N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.9N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 128.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
//

NNNN

[Ntxw]

That is such a good analogy Alyono. This is no different than a massive ef5 tornado barreling them but longer and bigger with water...if you can get out safely its not worth the risk to stay in my humble opinion to anyone in direct path.

[stormstrike]

We're not evacuating. Our house is sturdy. I hope.

We have food supplies. Trimmed our trees. And boarded up our windows. Anyway this is the first time that I've seen houses boarded up with plywood in our neighborhood.

By the time I'm writing this. We are already experiencing tropical storm winds plus heavy rains!

Any minute now the electricity will be down. Let's all be safe guys out there especially my fellow countrymen!

To put the expected winds in perspective.. remember the Moore tornado? That is the wind you will see. Can your house withstand that?

Honestly, I don't know. This is our first super typhoon in how many years of staying here.

I'm just thankful the electricity is still on.. lol

but the winds now.. seriously it's like Son-Tinh last year.

[euro6208]

PGTW- 8.0

REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN E# OF
6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT AND 0.5 FOR BANDING TO YIELD A DT OF 8.0.
MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

KNES- 8.0

REMARKS...WMG EYE (18 C) SURROUNDED BY CDG AND EMBEDDED IN CDG
MAXES OUT THE CF NUMBER AT 7.5 AFTER A PLUS 1.0 ADJUSTMENT. THERE IS A
CLEAR CUT VERY COLD BANDING FEATURE BUT THE WARM EDGE IS TECHNICALLY TOO
COOL TO ADD FOR BF. THEREFORE DT IS HELD AT 7.5. MET AND PT ARE CLEARLY
8.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.


2013NOV07 125700 8.0 862.2 +4.2 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 18.60 -84.75 EYE 26 IR 103. 10.31 -128.50 COMBO MTSAT1 18.0

[somethingfunny]

We're not evacuating. Our house is sturdy. I hope.

We have food supplies. Trimmed our trees. And boarded up our windows. Anyway this is the first time that I've seen houses boarded up with plywood in our neighborhood.

By the time I'm writing this. We are already experiencing tropical storm winds plus heavy rains!

Any minute now the electricity will be down. Let's all be safe guys out there especially my fellow countrymen!

The wind is only half the story. You should ideally be in a concrete structure that is at least 30 feet above sea level because if the center moves south of Guiuan then there will be a tremendous storm surge in Tacloban. It would be like a tsunami.

[Alyono]

We're not evacuating. Our house is sturdy. I hope.

We have food supplies. Trimmed our trees. And boarded up our windows. Anyway this is the first time that I've seen houses boarded up with plywood in our neighborhood.

By the time I'm writing this. We are already experiencing tropical storm winds plus heavy rains!

Any minute now the electricity will be down. Let's all be safe guys out there especially my fellow countrymen!

To put the expected winds in perspective.. remember the Moore tornado? That is the wind you will see. Can your house withstand that?

Honestly, I don't know. This is our first super typhoon in how many years of staying here.

I'm just thankful the electricity is still on.. lol

but the winds now.. seriously it's like Son-Tinh last year.

Maybe this will answer your question. Here are dmage photos from the Moore tornado

http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013 ... ma/100518/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

How many people are in the path of this monster?

Eastern Visayas (ground zero) has about 4.5 million people.

However, in all the regions in the track, I can see about 50 million people potentially at risk.

Wow and they've already had flooding rains and an earthquake to deal with. I imagine this could weaken some before it landfalls as most storms usually do to some extent as it's hard to believe Haiyan will sustain this strength, but it'll probably still be a STY when it impacts those areas.

It's my place hit by the quake.

[CrazyC83]

Consider how dangerous even a low category storm can be. That means the threat extends far beyond the eyewall as well, especially from storm surge and rainfall. Of course, in the eyewall, it could be total destruction from winds alone.

[Alyono]

Consider how dangerous even a low category storm can be. That means the threat extends far beyond the eyewall as well, especially from storm surge and rainfall. Of course, in the eyewall, it could be total destruction from winds alone.

to further highlight this point, the last 2 cat 4s that made landfall in the USA (Iniki and Charley) did not produce any significant tidal surge. Total destruction still occurred. In the eyewall, the wind may be the most dangerous element given their intensity

[oaba09]

red rainfall warning has been raised in multiple areas due to heavy rains......Signal #1 has been raised on metro manila while additional areas were placed under signal #4.....

[redisol]

Let's see if this cam continues to work in the next few hours.

Web Cam with audio in Boracay

looks like people there are still having fun. Aren't they supposed to get the hell out of there now???

[stormstrike]

We're not evacuating. Our house is sturdy. I hope.

We have food supplies. Trimmed our trees. And boarded up our windows. Anyway this is the first time that I've seen houses boarded up with plywood in our neighborhood.

By the time I'm writing this. We are already experiencing tropical storm winds plus heavy rains!

Any minute now the electricity will be down. Let's all be safe guys out there especially my fellow countrymen!

The wind is only half the story. You should ideally be in a concrete structure that is at least 30 feet above sea level because if the center moves south of Guiuan then there will be a tremendous storm surge in Tacloban. It would be like a tsunami.

We're in a concrete structure.. but I think we're not in a high-elevated area because we're usually flooded. Oh God. I hope you're wrong with that "like a tsunami".

[euro6208]

oh how i would love a recon or two into this...

maybe after this hits and causes potentially a high death toll which i hope not, the countries in our area can agree to something about starting one here with their headquarters based here on guam...

[somethingfunny]

Unfortunately it's probably too late to evacuate anyway. You might be able to evacuate to a safer location within the city, but there isn't time to get to anyplace away from Tacloban that I'd say is really any safer before the storm arrives.

[Alyono]

If anything, this is intensifying even more

[Alyono]

Unfortunately it's probably too late to evacuate anyway. You might be able to evacuate to a safer location within the city, but there isn't time to get to anyplace away from Tacloban that I'd say is really any safer before the storm arrives.

I hate to say it, but should be consider telling him to do what OEM here in the states advises those who stay do do?

[tolakram]

We're in a concrete structure.. but I think we're not in a high-elevated area because we're usually flooded. Oh God. I hope you're wrong with that "like a tsunami".

He's not wrong. Water kills more people in hurricanes than the wind does. The surge is exactly like a tsunami, with a wall of water rushing inwards and then receding, doing even more damage. If you are on the north side of the expected path (northern hemisphere) you should be evacuating to higher ground, and frankly if you are anywhere near this thing you should be evacuating regardless. I don't understand what your options are, but a sturdy structure on higher ground should be a priority in my opinion. Good luck, please stay safe.

[oaba09]

Let's see if this cam continues to work in the next few hours.

Web Cam with audio in Boracay

looks like people there are still having fun. Aren't they supposed to get the hell out of there now???

Coast guard has suspended all sea travel so there's no way out of the island

[Macrocane]

WHAT THE...!!!!

I can't believe what I'm seeing, 165 kt? when was the last time that there was such a strong tropical cyclone in the world?
I'm still in shock, it looks perfect on satellite images. I wish we would have recon in the WPAC.
My prayers and best wishes are with those among the path of this monster.

[somethingfunny]

We're in a concrete structure.. but I think we're not in a high-elevated area because we're usually flooded. Oh God. I hope you're wrong with that "like a tsunami".

Do you mean you usually get rainwater flooding, or seawater flooding? Both types of flooding will be tremendous with this storm. How far are you from the ocean or river?