WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

JMA stays the same:

WTPQ21 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1330 HAIYAN (1330)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 10.6N 126.9E GOOD
MOVE W 20KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 125KT
GUST 175KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 12.5N 118.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 22KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 120KT
GUST 170KT
48HF 091800UTC 14.6N 111.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 19KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 101800UTC 16.8N 105.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

[Extratropical94]

where could you find the 170kts? i can't seem to find it on any sites? i still see 165kts, can you point me in the right direction so i could keep track of the wind speed?

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

[euro6208]

Looks like an error

Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene
2013NOV07 173000 8.0 888.3 170.0 7.9 7.2 4.8 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -85.07 -82.69 UNIFRM

this is why...it's way off

[CrazyC83]

Looks like an error

Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene
2013NOV07 173000 8.0 888.3 170.0 7.9 7.2 4.8 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -85.07 -82.69 UNIFRM

this is why...it's way off

That's probably because this beast is so strong that the ADT couldn't keep track and the CDO is so intense it found a theoretical extra center...

[hurricanes1234]

I know it's a huge threat to the Philippines, but amidst all of this, will we make it to first visibles with this still over water?

[Bizzles]

I know it's a huge threat to the Philippines, but amidst all of this, will we make it to first visibles with this still over water?

Still have about 3 1/2 Hours to go...

[euro6208]

off the charts

[TheEuropean]

off the charts

source of this graphic?

[supercane4867]

Historical


WTPN33 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.6N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.3N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.1N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.1N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.3N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.2N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.8N 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.3N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 126.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//

[PaulR]

Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 1min
Like I said earlier, i was scared at 145 mph - Hurricane Charley 2004. Typhoon Hainyan at 195 mph? Time to dig a hole fast!

And then wash or slide away?

[Weatherguy173]

where could you find the 170kts? i can't seem to find it on any sites? i still see 165kts, can you point me in the right direction so i could keep track of the wind speed?

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

thank you

[Meow]

Also the historical track map from JTWC.

[CrazyC83]

Remaining a super typhoon all the way across. Wow.

[supercane4867]

Remember Tim Samaras, Haiyan could be the El Reno tornado for these experienced typhoon chasers

[Extratropical94]

They are almost two hours early, seems like they couldn't wait any longer to release the historical advisory.

[euro6208]

off the charts

source of this graphic?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP312013

[Hurricane_Luis]

A historical moment:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT

JTWC: 170 Knots (195 mph)
JMA: 175 Knots (200 mph) (This is not sustained)

[chris_fit]

http://www.weatherhq.com/weather-station/guiuan

Winds up to 62mph

[supercane4867]

A historical moment:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT

JTWC: 170 Knots (195 mph)
JMA: 175 Knots (200 mph)

That 175kt from JMA is wind gust not sustained

[Bizzles]

Anyone have a working radar link?