WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WOW!!!!

[cycloneye]

WOW!!!!

What is it? How are things there?

[thoughtsinchaos]

Pleasantly surprised by the resiliency of Cebu's power and communications infrastructure. Relatives in Cebu still have power, phone, and internet. Please keep us up to date, xtyphooncyclonex, but only when it's safe to do so!

[cycloneye]

Here is thye 03:00 UTC JTWC warning that has Haiyan making landfall in Vietnam at 100kts.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah please stop with under playing this we just don't have the quality data.. sat presentation using proven methods though nit perfect have proven a good percent error. we just will never know without direct data.. though it clear thisnis by far the top 3 to 5 most intense ever and probably at landfall.

[Tom8]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnVvQLV_Mn8[/youtube]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WOW!!!!

What is it? How are things there?

Winds are getting stronger and so with the rainfall. Pressure is about 986 mbar.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

worst i have ever encountered!

[cycloneye]

I am worried about the landfall in Vietnam because what was TD 30W dumped plenty of rain in the area that Haiyan is forecast to make landfall.

[Crostorm]

Here is webcam from Boracay Island



http://www.earthcam.com/world/philippin ... olabogbay/

[thoughtsinchaos]

Local media in Cebu City is reporting beginning of cascading power & communications failures. Government has activated mobile emergency cell sites to provide basic level of cell service (no data, little voice, SMS is the most reliable). Also, it seems Cebu doppler radar has been offline for awhile.

[Tom8]

[Bizzles]

I am trying to explain this storm to my "non-weather" friends.

I am using, "Remember Twister? This is like that tornado at the end, only instead of 2 miles wide...it's 20 miles wide...in real life..."

Am I far off?

[Bizzles]

Here is webcam from Boracay Island



http://www.earthcam.com/world/philippin ... olabogbay/

Think it's down...i saw people pleasurably walking along the beach less than 3 hours ago...no way they knew a 200 mph hurricane was bearing down on them.

[Meow]

Do not forget JMA. They think Haiyan made landfall at peak intensity, and they still estimate a violent typhoon in the South China Sea.



TY 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 8 November 2013

<Analyses at 08/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N11°00'(11.0°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 65m/s(125kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 90m/s(175kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE440km(240NM)
SW280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°35'(11.6°)
E120°30'(120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 40km/h(21kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(170kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N12°30'(12.5°)
E116°20'(116.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 40km/h(21kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E109°40'(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 11/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°00'(18.0°)
E105°05'(105.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

[thoughtsinchaos]

Video uploaded 9:30pm local time in Cebu City:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2bt7neIbUg[/youtube]

[hurricanes1234]

This is when I think Haiyan was at its peak. This is around 19:30 UTC.





Does anyone think otherwise? I'd be interested to know when you all think its peak was.

[redisol]

Is it just me or is the Project Noah website down?

[CrazyC83]

This is when I think Haiyan was at its peak. This is around 19:30 UTC.





Does anyone think otherwise? I'd be interested to know when you all think its peak was.

That is probably accurate, which would go down at 1800Z for synoptic time. I would put the peak intensity at 180 kt.

[FireRat]

I am trying to explain this storm to my "non-weather" friends.

I am using, "Remember Twister? This is like that tornado at the end, only instead of 2 miles wide...it's 20 miles wide...in real life..."

Am I far off?

Not at all, in fact this may be like a 40-mile wide EF 5 twister since the eye itself was 30 miles wide!