WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[vbhoutex]

Videos of the surge and destruction in Tacloban(?) are very disturbing. They are all over FB.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOFtLG0AtXI

[stormkite]

Do not forget JMA. They think Haiyan made landfall at peak intensity, and they still estimate a violent typhoon in the South China Sea.



TY 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 8 November 2013

<Analyses at 08/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N11°00'(11.0°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 65m/s(125kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 90m/s(175kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE440km(240NM)
SW280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°35'(11.6°)
E120°30'(120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 40km/h(21kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(170kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N12°30'(12.5°)
E116°20'(116.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 40km/h(21kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E109°40'(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 11/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°00'(18.0°)
E105°05'(105.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

Yeah not good think at 11.5/6 N 120.5 E The storm will begin to rapidly intensify again to what who knows.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

This is when I think Haiyan was at its peak. This is around 19:30 UTC.





Does anyone think otherwise? I'd be interested to know when you all think its peak was.

That is probably accurate, which would go down at 1800Z for synoptic time. I would put the peak intensity at 180 kt.

Another amazing thing is how a considerable amount of its circulation was over land (mountainous islands) at that time. It was just on such a tremendous upswing that it was slow to respond to the land interaction.

[Meow]

JTWC’s first warning after landfall, with a larger track map.



WTPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 11.0N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.8N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.7N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.8N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.1N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.2N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.7N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.2N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 123.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN

[zeekat]

JMA has it tracking west.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1330c.html

[Bizzles]

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 50 FEET.

[bzukajo]

Boracay cams are back up. Looks like it is getting a little choppy.

[PaulR]

I suppose someone might want to keep archiving these -- I'm not really set up anywhere to do so, tho' I am saving some to my own HD.




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Bizzles]

Boracay cams are back up. Looks like it is getting a little choppy.

Background isles are non-visible now...I cannot believe the "green" effect...
Quote Dusty - "Going green!"

Poor people

[stormkite]

I think it will re intensity and track to LAOS as a violent super typhoon.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Meow]

WDPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS THE NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS PERSISTED BUT
IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE
ITSELF HAS ALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE
ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
FOR ALL AGENCIES TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL OBSERVED IN EIR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED TO 160 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
INFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5 KNOTS),
ALLOWING GOOD VERTICAL TRANSPORT AND IS SUPPORTING THE RECENT
INTENSITY INCREASES OBSERVED IN EIR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND 72. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PHILIPPINES AND A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL LEAD TO INTENSITIES DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE SLOW AT FIRST
AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL TO GOOD THROUGH TAU 48, BUT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
BE AMPLIFIED BY GREATER LAND INTERACTION AND LESS THAN FAVORABLE
SSTS NEAR THE COAST. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, AND
WILL CAUSE A MORE AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM THROUGH TAU 96, SHIFTING TO A
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA, AND MOVING TO
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE TRACK OVER LAND WILL
CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING AS FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS INCREASE AND
GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IMPACTS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU
120. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[PaulR]

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 50 FEET.

I have a question about that: When storm surges are reported or predicted, do I assume correctly that the wave heights (if headed into the shore) would add on, at least in the waters along the shore? I can imagine some monster breakers too, in some cases...

[Bizzles]

Boracay cams are back up. Looks like it is getting a little choppy.

Cam is rockin' and you can hear thunder!

[supercane4867]

Haiyan continues to maintain excellent structure despite landfall

[thoughtsinchaos]

Cebu radar back up, storm about to make landfall on Cebu island. Inner core still looks disrupted but microwave satellite imagery shows better organisation, maybe the radar just isn't able to penetrate all the way through the core.

[Bizzles]

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 50 FEET.

I have a question about that: When storm surges are reported or predicted, do I assume correctly that the wave heights (if headed into the shore) would add on, at least in the waters along the shore? I can imagine some monster breakers too, in some cases...

All depends upon the direction of the storm and usually where the land will hold water against that direction. IMHO in this case the water has plenty of other paths to follow (path of least resistance) so to answer your question, no I wouldn't add wave height to the surge at all.

[Bizzles]

Boracay cam is about to be slammed...it's slowing down on refresh (getting choppy). The waves still look not too bad but I'm pretty sure this is a NW oriented island so the "cove" in the camera view maybe protected.

[brunota2003]

I do wonder how quickly systems like this weaken after landfall. The eye is almost completely gone on satellite images, yet it only weakened 10 knots (using JTWC from 170 knots to 160 knots). Definitely a subject that needs much study. Especially systems like this that are only traversing mountainous islands, versus moving steadily more and more inland.

[stormkite]

WDPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS THE NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS PERSISTED BUT
IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE
ITSELF HAS ALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE
ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
FOR ALL AGENCIES TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL OBSERVED IN EIR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED TO 160 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
INFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5 KNOTS),
ALLOWING GOOD VERTICAL TRANSPORT AND IS SUPPORTING THE RECENT
INTENSITY INCREASES OBSERVED IN EIR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND 72. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PHILIPPINES AND A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL LEAD TO INTENSITIES DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE SLOW AT FIRST
AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL TO GOOD THROUGH TAU 48, BUT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
BE AMPLIFIED BY GREATER LAND INTERACTION AND LESS THAN FAVORABLE
SSTS NEAR THE COAST. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, AND
WILL CAUSE A MORE AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM THROUGH TAU 96, SHIFTING TO A
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA, AND MOVING TO
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE TRACK OVER LAND WILL
CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING AS FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS INCREASE AND
GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IMPACTS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU
120. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

Only weakening i can see would be at 19.9N 105.6E THAT's at landfall boarder of Laos/Hanoi



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Teddyfred]

This is when I think Haiyan was at its peak. This is around 19:30 UTC.





Does anyone think otherwise? I'd be interested to know when you all think its peak was.

That is probably accurate, which would go down at 1800Z for synoptic time. I would put the peak intensity at 180 kt.

Could it have peaked earlier, around 1630Z? The very cold dark gray area around the eye was perfectly symmetrical at that time. By 1930Z the CDO was beginning to lose some of its symmetry. (The only other storm to my knowledge which had such a perfect ring of cold cloud tops was Gay-1992 and maybe Nida-2009, though both were smaller than Haiyan.)