WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
PaulR
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:43 pm
Location: Mid-South USA

Re:

#1061 Postby PaulR » Fri Nov 08, 2013 12:48 am

brunota2003 wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

There is a good page regarding storm surge. Now has for your question, no the surge totals do not account for waves. So if you have a 17 ft surge and you are sitting ontop of your roof (assuming the building is even still standing), and an 8 ft wave comes along, it will wash over the peak of your roof, and very likely take you with it. This happened during Katrina, where you can watch the waves wash over the peaks of houses as the waves propagate through the areas (and thus, if anyone had escaped to the roof, they would have been washed away).


Ok, thanks. That's pretty much what I thought, but I wasn't sure. I would assume my "22 foot wave" is measured peak to valley, and therefor its peak would be approximately 11 ft. above average, with "average" being the level of the storm surge. So, in my example (assuming the building is still standing), I get washed away by a wave peaking 10 ft. over the roof level. (Granted that even a 2-3 ft. wave peak is probably enough to knock me off the roof.) This helps me to understand, even if it's in a contrived way, what the people affected are up against...
0 likes   
"Normal" is Chicago under a mile of ice.

euro6208

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1062 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:01 am

According to Jeff Masters, Haiyan ranks in the top 4 most intense in world history and a three way tie for the fourth spot.

Super Typhoon Nancy (1961), 215 mph winds, 882 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 2 in Japan, killing 191 people.

Super Typhoon Violet (1961), 205 mph winds, 886 mb pressure. Made landfall in Japan as a tropical storm, killing 2 people.

Super Typhoon Ida (1958), 200 mph winds, 877 mb pressure. Made landfall as a Cat 1 in Japan, killing 1269 people.

Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013), 195 mph winds, 895 mb pressure. Made landfall in the Philippines at peak strength.

Super Typhoon Kit (1966), 195 mph winds, 880 mb. Did not make landfall.

Super Typhoon Sally (1964), 195 mph winds, 895 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 4 in the Philippines.

Now let's add the 190 mph storms from the wpac...


1. Tip (1979) - 190 MPH - 870 mbar
2. Vanessa (1984) - 190 MPH - 880 mbar
3. Vera (1959) - 190 MPH - 895 mbar
4. Grace (1958) - 190 MPH - 905 mbar
5. Sarah (1959) - 190 MPH - 905 mbar
6. Louise (1964) - 190 MPH - 915 mbar
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

dhoeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 130
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:32 am
Location: Manila, Philippines

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1063 Postby dhoeze » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:12 am

Hi Team,

anyone knows its current forward speed? is it still at 39kph?
I dont see the eye now over the radar view, or just looking at a wrong picture?
0 likes   
"Productivity is never an accident. It is always the result of a commitment to excellence, intelligent planning, and focused effort."

Meow

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1064 Postby Meow » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:12 am

euro6208 wrote:According to Jeff Masters, Haiyan ranks in the top 4 most intense in world history and a three way tie for the fourth spot.

But their winds are not reliable, except Haiyan. You can see they are all from 1950s and 1960s.
0 likes   

thoughtsinchaos
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:31 pm
Location: Los Angeles (UCLA)
Contact:

Re: Re:

#1065 Postby thoughtsinchaos » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:13 am

Alyono wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:radar sat overlays clrealy had the city through the northern eyewall.


Yes. I agree. Though it may not have been measured by any instruments, it looks pretty clear that the most extreme part of the northern eyewall went over Tacloban. I'm sure we'll see damage reports to confirm it.


looked to me on the radar posted several pages earlier that the city itself was literally a half mile or so outside of the eyewall. Maybe on the extreme outer edge

http://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/h ... 5428_o.jpg

strongest winds likely in Palo


Isn't the northern eyewall directly over Tacloban in that photo?
0 likes   

thoughtsinchaos
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:31 pm
Location: Los Angeles (UCLA)
Contact:

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1066 Postby thoughtsinchaos » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:15 am

dhoeze wrote:Hi Team,

anyone knows its current forward speed? is it still at 39kph?
I dont see the eye now over the radar view, or just looking at a wrong picture?


The radar out of Cebu stopped working some hours ago, the image you are seeing is quite old. Judging from satellite photos, Haiyan has redeveloped its symmetrical pinwheel eye
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1067 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:15 am

Truly a historic storm...what makes haiyan special is his 8.0 dvorak and ADT reaching 8.1...

only two other storms reach higher...Super Typhoon Angela (1995) and Super Typhoon Gay (1992) at 8.3 and 8.7!
0 likes   

Meow

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1068 Postby Meow » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:17 am

euro6208 wrote:Truly a historic storm...what makes haiyan special is his 8.0 dvorak and ADT reaching 8.1...

only two other storms reach higher...Super Typhoon Angela (1995) and Super Typhoon Gay (1992) at 8.3 and 8.7!

Only Haiyan’s is recognised. Storms cannot be higher than 8.0.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Re:

#1069 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:18 am

thoughtsinchaos wrote:
Isn't the northern eyewall directly over Tacloban in that photo?


Looks like the extreme outer edge is. I believe the strongest winds would be on the inner edge.

Even if they didnt get the eyewall, they still would have likely received sustained well over 100 mph and gusts over 150 mph. In Andrew, Coral Gables missed the eyewall, yet had a gust to 164 mph. So we're talking about the difference between severe damage vs total obliteration
0 likes   

dhoeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 130
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:32 am
Location: Manila, Philippines

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1070 Postby dhoeze » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:20 am

thoughtsinchaos wrote:
dhoeze wrote:Hi Team,

anyone knows its current forward speed? is it still at 39kph?
I dont see the eye now over the radar view, or just looking at a wrong picture?


The radar out of Cebu stopped working some hours ago, the image you are seeing is quite old. Judging from satellite photos, Haiyan has redeveloped its symmetrical pinwheel eye


thanks thoughtsinchaos, do we know current speed direction? is it still moving west northwest at 39km/hr
0 likes   
"Productivity is never an accident. It is always the result of a commitment to excellence, intelligent planning, and focused effort."

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1071 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:21 am

Another saved loop before off to bed

Image
Image
0 likes   

euro6208

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1072 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:24 am

Meow wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Truly a historic storm...what makes haiyan special is his 8.0 dvorak and ADT reaching 8.1...

only two other storms reach higher...Super Typhoon Angela (1995) and Super Typhoon Gay (1992) at 8.3 and 8.7!

Only Haiyan’s is recognised. Storms cannot be higher than 8.0.


yes they can using ADT...Gay had 8.7 and Angela at 8.3...haiyan at 8.1

How can you say not recognised when there is an extensive research paper talking about gay and angela and many other powerful typhoons...?

maybe in a few years, haiyan can get one too...

http://my.yahoo.comwww.maybagyo.com/karl/hoarau001.pdf

or type

Have there been any typhoons stronger than Super typhoon tip in google...alot of grreat information...
0 likes   

thoughtsinchaos
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:31 pm
Location: Los Angeles (UCLA)
Contact:

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1073 Postby thoughtsinchaos » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:29 am

dhoeze wrote:
thoughtsinchaos wrote:
dhoeze wrote:Hi Team,

anyone knows its current forward speed? is it still at 39kph?
I dont see the eye now over the radar view, or just looking at a wrong picture?


The radar out of Cebu stopped working some hours ago, the image you are seeing is quite old. Judging from satellite photos, Haiyan has redeveloped its symmetrical pinwheel eye


thanks thoughtsinchaos, do we know current speed direction? is it still moving west northwest at 39km/hr


Sorry I was looking at an old satellite photo. It's actually weakened even further now, which is good news. Movement should still be the same though there have been some minor wobbles.
0 likes   

redisol
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 7:05 am

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1074 Postby redisol » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:32 am

Is Metro Manila out of the woods? There are reports that the typhoon will be out of land by tonight and others are reporting that it will affect Metro Manila tonight? What is the real score?
0 likes   

Teddyfred
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:58 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1075 Postby Teddyfred » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:34 am

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/0 ... 35250.html

A bit late for this but...

"Super Typhoon Haiyan Could Be One Of The Strongest Storms In World History"

In the comments, a lot of people dismiss these reports out of hand. It's true that generally the media tends to overhype the strength of tropical cyclones, but this is an exception. This is a storm of historic proportions. It's an example of 'the boy who cried wolf' syndrome. Media always overhypes and then when the real deal comes along no one takes it seriously.
0 likes   

User avatar
PaulR
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:43 pm
Location: Mid-South USA

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1076 Postby PaulR » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:40 am

euro6208 wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2573

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Super Typhoon Haiyan: Strongest Landfalling Tropical Cyclone on Record


The article (and Wikipedia) both state Guiuan as having a population of 47k. Even after myself having been to the Philippines 3 times and visiting a variety of cities and towns, looking at the satellite view it's a little hard to comprehend 47,000 people living in that small an area. I'm not sure I want to see what it looks like, now... :(
0 likes   
"Normal" is Chicago under a mile of ice.

Meow

#1077 Postby Meow » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:47 am

JTWC: 145 knots

31W HAIYAN 131108 0600 11.4N 122.6E WPAC 145 914
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1078 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:48 am

I believe is the lowest confirmed pressure reading so far

955.6mb at Tacloban station
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
PaulR
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:43 pm
Location: Mid-South USA

Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1079 Postby PaulR » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:54 am

Maybe I should say " it's a little hard to comprehend 47,000 people living in that small an area, when they are not stacked in vertically."

It's time for me to hit the sack too. I'm not sure I'm going to sleep very well.
0 likes   
"Normal" is Chicago under a mile of ice.

Meow

#1080 Postby Meow » Fri Nov 08, 2013 2:02 am

JMA reported that Haiyan weakened significantly, but still kept 105 knots.

Image

TY 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 8 November 2013

<Analyses at 08/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N11°25'(11.4°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE500km(270NM)
SW280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N12°05'(12.1°)
E118°25'(118.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 40km/h(21kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N13°20'(13.3°)
E114°35'(114.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 10/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°50'(16.8°)
E108°05'(108.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°25'(19.4°)
E104°35'(104.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)
0 likes   


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests