WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

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#1081 Postby stormkite » Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:13 am

Looks to me it's slightly intensified last loop.



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Last edited by stormkite on Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Meow

#1082 Postby Meow » Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:50 am

Haiyan at 05:05 UTC

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#1083 Postby stormkite » Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:55 am

MAD PHOTO.
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#1084 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 08, 2013 4:43 am

This has continued to weaken. Probably down to 115 KT now
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Re:

#1085 Postby stormkite » Fri Nov 08, 2013 5:07 am

Alyono wrote:This has continued to weaken. Probably down to 115 KT now

It's holding at 6.5 127knts


2013NOV08 080000 6.5 931.2 127.0 5.9 5.8 4.7 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -70.45 -71.90 UNIFRM N/A N/A 11.48 -121.73 SPRL MTSAT1 25.1
2013NOV08 083000 6.5 931.1 127.0 5.8 5.8 4.7 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -68.93 -70.78 UNIFRM N/A N/A 11.52 -121.53 SPRL MTSAT1 25.3
2013NOV08 090000 6.5 931.1 127.0 5.8 5.8 4.7 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -64.67 -70.97 UNIFRM
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#1086 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 08, 2013 5:08 am

Being held up by Dvorak constraints? Land passage is a good reason to break them
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Re:

#1087 Postby stormkite » Fri Nov 08, 2013 5:37 am

Alyono wrote:Being held up by Dvorak constraints? Land passage is a good reason to break them


Of course the storm has got loose power over land no fuel. When yasi hit us it was still a force 4 hundred miles inland and that was tame in compassion to this storm and there was no water on the other side. Its at 127 KNOTS now and moving closer to warm ocean again what constraints do you see holding it back then it still looks great on loop it's not a TD and its not going to take days to build. I note you said before it cannot reach intense status again i respect your opinion . When it does i will re quote back for you page 51.


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#1088 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 08, 2013 5:48 am

it will probably peak at 120 KT in the South China Sea and strike Vietnam at 115-120 KT. No chance this regains its former intensity. The oceanic conditions are not that favorable in the South China Sea.

That said, I dont understand JTWCs reasoning of a cat 2 equivalent at landfall. I'm seeing winds on the EC at nearly 120 KT near Vietnam and the GFS also does not indicate weakening.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1089 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 08, 2013 6:09 am

Hopefully the chasers are safe and there is no signal to communicate to the outside world that is keeping them not to report.

Jim Loznicka WJHG ‏@jimwxgator 1 min
Little worried sbout @ExtremeStorms. Hasnt tweeted in 10+ hrs and is situated at ground zero for Super Typhoon #Haiyan.


Andrew Clark ‏@qandrew 1 min
“@tekhelet: Tacloban is badly damaged. 21feet water. 2 storeys high water. Hoping to hear from those 2. @jamewils” #Haiyan #Philippines
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#1090 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 08, 2013 6:09 am

Power out for hours.. using pocket wifi and winds were strong....
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Re:

#1091 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 6:15 am

Alyono wrote:it will probably peak at 120 KT in the South China Sea and strike Vietnam at 115-120 KT. No chance this regains its former intensity. The oceanic conditions are not that favorable in the South China Sea.

That said, I dont understand JTWCs reasoning of a cat 2 equivalent at landfall. I'm seeing winds on the EC at nearly 120 KT near Vietnam and the GFS also does not indicate weakening.


What's the MPI near the Vietnam coast? I know the SST's drop off sharply further west... maybe that's why JTWC is bearish on the intensity.
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Re: Re:

#1092 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 08, 2013 6:29 am

wxmann_91 wrote:
Alyono wrote:it will probably peak at 120 KT in the South China Sea and strike Vietnam at 115-120 KT. No chance this regains its former intensity. The oceanic conditions are not that favorable in the South China Sea.

That said, I dont understand JTWCs reasoning of a cat 2 equivalent at landfall. I'm seeing winds on the EC at nearly 120 KT near Vietnam and the GFS also does not indicate weakening.


What's the MPI near the Vietnam coast? I know the SST's drop off sharply further west... maybe that's why JTWC is bearish on the intensity.


looks like cat 3/ cat 4

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

May be possible given the impressive outflow pattern
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#1093 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Nov 08, 2013 6:41 am

Haiyan makes Bopha and Megi look like child's play, I'm surprised 2013 was able to poop out something as insane as Haiyan...even for the Wpac. I compared it to all the strongest TC's I've tracked since 2005 and I can't find one that matches but I think Joan from 1997 looked similar to this and some others. I have to agree it appears to be a legendary weather event and likely in the Top 5 strongest TC's in world history. If I were to assign a pressure and wind estimate (at its peak strength), I'd say 175-180 knots with a pressure of 867 mb (similar to CrazyC83). Believe it or not, it could have improved further if the eye got even warmer and the thick ring of -85ºC+ cloud tops expanded even more. I have to say I'm amazed it got to this level even though it was obvious it was going to become a CAT5, the strongest TC this year, and make landfall above 140 knots. My old thinking was 150 knots...off by quite a bit!

I've actually waited many years for this scenario, I wonder what the scenes will be in the area that got the NE quad of this 195 MPH+ buzzsaw. Hopefully some weather instruments survived. Also daytime for the storm chasers that intercepted history. This was the ultimate test for the Philippines that's all I can say.
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#1094 Postby ohno » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:01 am

Can anyone please explain the cluster of clouds far east of the WPAC? are those potential storms again???
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#1095 Postby stormkite » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:02 am

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Re:

#1096 Postby stormkite » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:04 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Power out for hours.. using pocket wifi and winds were strong....


Great news to hear you are safe.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1097 Postby Stephanie » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:36 am

I don't know how or where people of the Philippines would even evacuate to. What scary radar images of Haiyan. My thoughts and prayers go out to the citizens of Philippines.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1098 Postby tolakram » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:42 am

Eye starting to clear out again.

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Meow

#1099 Postby Meow » Fri Nov 08, 2013 8:07 am

Haiyan significantly weakened, but is still much stronger than most of storms which crossed the Philippines.

JMA: 95 knots

Image

TY 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 8 November 2013

<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N11°50'(11.8°)
E120°40'(120.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE500km(270NM)
SW330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°25'(12.4°)
E116°35'(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°00'(14.0°)
E112°40'(112.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 40km/h(21kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E106°50'(106.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°05'(20.1°)
E103°40'(103.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1100 Postby tolakram » Fri Nov 08, 2013 8:37 am

Passing over Coron now, hopefully the eyewall is just north of the coast.

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