WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Depression

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:21 pm

Here comes another one.

90W INVEST 131109 0000 2.0N 144.0E WPAC 15 1010


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#2 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:29 pm

Stay away from the Philippines!!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re:

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Stay away from the Philippines!!!


Good news is it wont be very strong but the bad news is the copious amounts of rain it may send to the area.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
ManilaTC
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 593
Age: 46
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 5:13 am
Location: Mandaluyong City, Philippines
Contact:
Contact ManilaTC

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby ManilaTC » Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:55 pm

It just never ends eh?
0 likes   
The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.

WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC
Top
hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2905
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:14 pm

Look at how close to the equator this is!!! It's virtually right over that 0° line. :eek:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:58 pm

wow another washi type event?

Washi made landfall over mindanao as a TS but caused over 1000 deaths...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:25 am

Image

landfall in the same vicinity where haiyan made landfall... :roll:
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
ohno
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 2:42 am

#8 Postby ohno » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:53 am

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.0N 144.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND LOOSELY
ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN
THE OUTER PERIPHERIES. A 082337Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
HIGHLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH SOME BROKEN CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW


From JTWC website. What does it mean?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:04 am

Image

2.0 from the equator!
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3857
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:
Contact xtyphooncyclonex

#10 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:06 am

Will this have a chance to reach typhoon strength?
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Top
ohno
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 2:42 am

#11 Postby ohno » Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:41 am

from JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 02N 143E WEST SLOWLY.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3857
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:
Contact xtyphooncyclonex

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 09, 2013 4:53 am

euro6208 wrote:Image

landfall in the same vicinity where haiyan made landfall... :roll:

That's SOUTH of Haiyan's track.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 09, 2013 9:54 am

90W INVEST 131109 1200 1.9N 141.1E WPAC 15 1010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 01N 142E WEST SLOWLY.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
cebuboy
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 5:29 am
Location: Cebu, Philippines

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#14 Postby cebuboy » Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:27 am

No more monsters!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:49 am

Image

moist environment...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:40 pm

good news...both euro and gfs don't develop this at all but tracks the low pressure in almost the same vicinity where haiyan made landfall...the real development will occur in the south china sea...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 09, 2013 2:44 pm

JMA first warning.

TD
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 9 November 2013
<Analyses at 09/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N1°30'(1.5°)
E141°00'(141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N3°05'(3.1°)
E136°30'(136.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Meow

#18 Postby Meow » Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:35 pm

1.5N... Very close to the equator.
0 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#19 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:19 pm

18Z GFS has weak TS at landfall

Image
0 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#20 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:22 pm

GFS likely too far north. These equatorial cyclones tend to not move north as fast as the models indicate
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests