Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SUN NOV 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA IS
CAUSING FLOW FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT FLOW TONIGHT. AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSAGE A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY MONDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ABOUT 735 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
WITH ALMOST 60 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM CUBA TO NORTHEAST OF
SAINT MARTIN BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH IS FORCED
BACK TO THE BAHAMAS AS A DEVELOPING LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY STRENGTHENS AND MOVES WEST TO NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO BY THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK TROUGH CUTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE EAST-WEST RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SINCE TODAY. BY LATE THIS WEEK STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEHIND THAT. THEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AT MID
LEVELS GENERATES A SURFACE LOW ON SATURDAY THAT DEEPENS
CONSIDERABLY AND MOVES TO A POSITION NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY ABOUT
725 MILES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOWER MOISTURE IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WAS STILL ABLE TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO
THAT REACHED UP TO 36 KFT. OTHERWISE ONLY A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
PASSED OVER THE AREA. SAINT THOMAS HAD 0.13 INCHES IN ONE HEAVY
SHOWER. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGH
TOMORROW IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. SOME OF THIS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OVER THE AREA AT UPPER
LEVELS...BUT IN GENERAL SHOWERS WILL BE TOO WEAK AND TOO FEW TO
GENERATE FLOODING TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. MOISTURE PERSISTS THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AFTER THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS
DEPICT A MUCH MORE ACTIVE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WITH STRONG HIGHS AND
LOWS AT VARIOUS LEVELS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. IN PARTICULAR...ONE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IS THAT OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OR AT LEAST A
CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT REINFORCES COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
AROUND A LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE GFS AT 700 MB SUGGESTS THAT A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY THAT SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MODEST DUE TO THE COOLER NATURE OF THE AIR MASS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WITH THE
LOW FARTHER EAST THAN THE GFS AND NOT AS STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 22Z.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA PROMPTING EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL OPEN WATERS WITH ANY
EASTERN EXPOSURE. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 6 FEET. SHOULD WINDS BE
ANY STRONGER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 76 86 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 88 78 88 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
956 PM AST SUN NOV 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST MON AND HOLD
THROUGH FRI THEN BREAK DOWN SAT AS UPPER LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE ATLC EAST OF 60W.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MON WITH SCT-
NMRS SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN/NW PR WITH A
GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER AND TSTM CVRG THROUGH TUE AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SHARP DRYING
IS FORECAST BY ECMWF WED AND THU UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL FRI AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS SWD
ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INCREASING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF...OP GFS AND
GEFS MEAN SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT
NOV 17. AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER TRUE CDFNT/DEWPOINT
FRONT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA OR DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THE LOCAL AREA. OP AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN SHOW ASSOCIATED LOW
PRES LOSING ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND EVOLVING/TRANSITIONING
INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW PRES SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Only a few showers will move thru PR and VI today but in general,good weather is expected for most of this week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST MON NOV 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER TOUGH WILL
AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. THIS PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PR...THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.

WHEN IT COMES TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOW LOWER THAN THEY WERE A
FEW DAYS AGO...HOWEVER THE RECENTLY OBSERVED VALUES AS WELL AS
THOSE FORECAST BY THE MODELS ARE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-SE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND
1.5 INCHES GIVE OR TAKE A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS...WITH THE RIDGE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THOSE SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS AND THEN THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE WINDS SHIFT SLIGHTLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
IN THE VERY LONG TERM...GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF
APPROACHING SHEARLINE OR BOUNDARY THAT BRINGS RAIN AND CLOUDS TO
THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA MAINLY OFFSHORE ATTM BUT ISOLD AT SHORES TOO.
VFR PREVAILS. SHRA WL DECR THIS MRNG AS THE MOISTURE SHALLOWS.
SCT/NRMS SHRA/TSRA OVR W-NW PR THIS AFT WI INCL TJMZ/TJBQ. SOME MVFR
AND OBSCD MTNS. LLVL WIND SFC-FL150 E-ESE 15-25 KT THRU TUE.


&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS HAVE BEEN STAYING AT AROUND 4 FEET WHILE
THE OUTER BUOY...41043...HAVE BEEN AROUND 6 FEET. EVEN THOUGH THE
WINDS MAY BE UP TO 20 KNOTS...AS OF NOW...SEAS OF 7 FEET ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO
6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 77 / 10 30 30 0
STT 87 77 88 78 / 10 40 40 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST MON NOV 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL INTENSIFY THE FLOW OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CUBA WILL MIGRATE TO JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE REVERSES COURSE AND RETURNS TO CUBA BY NEXT SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
SWEPT ASIDE BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ABOUT 1350 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AND MOVES TO WITHIN 500
MILES WITHOUT MUCH STRENGTHENING BY WEDNESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITHOUT
MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND UP TO 3 PM TOPS WERE UNDER 25 KFT. SCATTERED
SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME DRYING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS SLOWLY AFTER THURSDAY AS COOLER MOIST AIR INVADES FROM THE
NORTH IN A FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE ABRUPT COOLING AFTER SUNDAY. SO FAR THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND SUNDAY...BUT THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO DRIVE IT WAS DEPICTED MUCH WEAKER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MORE RELIABLE SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN SHOWING
EXAGGERATED HIGHS AND LOWS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SCATTERED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY
ONSHORE SHOWERS...STILL SHALLOW...ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL TERRAIN ON THE
WINDWARD...NORTHERN SIDE...OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD GENERATE BRIEFED MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET...11/23Z FOR
TJMZ AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. AT THAT TIME HIGH PRESSURE INVADING THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE SWELL FROM THE NORTH AND 7
FOOT SEAS MAY BE SEEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 86 / 30 30 20 20
STT 78 88 79 88 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
943 PM AST MON NOV 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THU THEN BEGIN TO ERODE FRI AS POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
CNTRL ATLC. A WEAK CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE THROUGH THU AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH
WED. 200 MB HEIGHTS PEAK ON THU WITH PW REACHING A MINIMUM OF 1.2
INCHES AND IS SLOW TO RECOVER THROUGH FRI AS SUBSIDENCE LOOKS
PRETTY STRONG. HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL QUICKLY FRI NIGHT AS POLAR
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. THIS WILL PROMOTE QUICK
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP. A SHEARLINE WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND ENHANCE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF PR FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WEAKENING FRONTAL
ZONE/DEWPOINT FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING QUICKLY ON SUN. POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLIES
WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. After an outage that affected the board here is this afternoons discussion. It looks like a Cold Front will arrive by the weekend bringing some showers and cooler temperatures.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST TUE NOV 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL RE- CENTER OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN IT WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CAUSING
FLOW TO INCREASE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
DRIFT WEST BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR 30
NORTH 50 WEST ON SATURDAY AND DRIFT NORTHEAST...BUT TWO SUCCESSIVE
LOWS WILL FORM IN ITS PLACE...EACH CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA THAN
THE PREVIOUS LOW. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST
FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BUT VERY LIMITED THE
REST OF THE TIME.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT...FORCING A TROUGH AHEAD OF IT
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE REMNANT FROM THE MIGRATING TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVER PUERTO RICO IN
THE MORNING...THEN HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
HORMIGUEROS...MAYAGUEZ AND ANASCO. TOPS AS OF 2:30 PM AST WERE
ONLY UP TO 25 KFT...BUT UP TO ONE INCH MAY HAVE FALLEN. DECREASING SHALLOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...AND JUST A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN
WESTERN PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE A LITTLE ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY AND PASSES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND
SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
FOLLOWING WEEK WILL SEE SOME OF THE DRIEST WEATHER OF THE LAST
SEVERAL MONTHS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW ONE INCH IN
THE GFS AFTER MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND SFC-FL150 E/ESE 15-25 KT WEAKENING ON
WED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE AREA BUT
WILL EASE SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 7
FEET...BUT WILL BE CHOPPY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN EXPOSED
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 76 88 / 20 20 0 10
STT 78 88 78 88 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 PM AST TUE NOV 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THU THEN BEGIN TO
ERODE FRI AS POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. A WEAK
CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. COOL DRY WEATHER WILL
ESTABLISH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE UNDER
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EXPECT SHOWER CVRG TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH THU BEING THE DRIEST DAY WHEN SHOWERS MAY NOT
DEVELOP AT ALL. MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST LATE THU OR THU
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVR ST. CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS. HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL QUICKLY FRI NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH PASSAGE OF SHEARLINE AND WEAK
CDFNT. POST- FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLIES WILL THEN DOMINATE MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH VERY COOL AND DRY WX FOR SO EARLY IN THE DRY
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHRA MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH VCSH ACROSS TJSJ...TNCM...AND TKPK OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVR W-NW PR AFTER 13/19Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD AT TJBQ AND TJMZ.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 5 AND 15
KTS...A OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISHING TO 3-5 FT THROUGH LATE THU THEN BUILD
8-9 FT IN NNW TO NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 76 88 / 10 10 0 0
STT 78 88 78 88 / 10 0 20 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI. A weak Cold Front will arrive by the weekend bringing scattered showers and cooler temperatures.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST WED NOV 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...THE OOZ TJSJ SOUNDING DID NOT HELP THIS FORECAST
MUCH AS IT ASCENDED IN A RAIN SHOWER...RENDERING THE MOISTURE
FIELD USELESS. BUT SATELLITE REMOTE SENSORS SHOW THAT VERY DRY
AIR IS FINALLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST EXCEPT THE GFS ADVECTING
SUB 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY AGAIN GOES TOO FAR.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE THE BEST THIS AIR MASS CAN MUSTER CURRENTLY
AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH TODAY... THOUGH STRONG
SUNSHINE WILL AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE NORTHWEST PR CORNER. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST
UNTIL A REMNANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD TO PR ON SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING. THAT BAND OF MOISTURE MIGHT CAUSE MORE SHOWERS BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH VCSH LIKELY ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK AND
SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACROSS NW PR AFTER 13/19Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
STARTING AFTER 13/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...WIND IS GATHERING STRENGTH ON THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD EAST
OF NC TO NY...ALREADY KICKING WAVES UP TO 8 TO 12 FT. MODELS SHOW
THIS DEVELOPMENT NICELY AND THEY PUSH THE RESULTANT SWELLS TO THE
ATLANTIC SIDE OF PR BY FRI WITH 7-8 FT. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/FORECASTS
FOR THAT...AND THEN ANOTHER QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW WILL LIKELY
GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF 7 FOOTERS ON MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 75 / 10 0 0 0
STT 88 77 87 78 / 0 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1053 PM AST WED NOV 13 2013



.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY TO HELP MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. RIDGE WILL HOWEVER ERODE SLIGHTLY
DURING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OF THE UNITED STATES THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE EASTWARDS INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LIFTS FURTHER EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR
LINE STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS BOUNDARY IS TO EVENTUALLY DIP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC...AND COOL AND STABLE NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERS IN AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN
THE MEANTIME...MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THEREFORE LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS. PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW REACHING PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BY EARLY MORNING.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING
THE DAY...HOWEVER FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

A SURGE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS MAINLY LATE THURSDAY OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND OVERALL DRY
AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SO FAR FORECAST
BY THE BEGINNING OF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL SHEAR LINE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL
ACTION ARRIVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A SECONDARY
PULSE OF NORTHERLY SWELLS IS EXPECTED. SEAS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 7 TO 8 FEET BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SWELL LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST AND UPDATE THE MARINE FORECAST
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND DATA FROM
DISTANT AND SURROUNDING BUOYS. ALL IN ALL DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PART OF THE
LOCAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 75 86 / 10 20 20 20
STT 78 88 77 88 / 20 20 30 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI but a weak Cold Front will move thru during the weekend bringing scattered showers,cooler temperatures and higher swells.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU NOV 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASING A LITTLE OVER LOCAL WATERS BUT
ARE STILL ISOLATED SO FAR. GFS STILL SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL
DEEPEN ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE FIRST AND SATELLITE TPW IMAGES
CONFIRM THAT TREND. DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CONVECTION TODAY BUT
DID ADJUST THE LOCATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER A LITTLE
NORTHWARD DUE TO ESSENTIALLY EAST WINDS AT DEPTH. BELIEVE THE
LOCATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL PR).

DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS FRI NIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TURN
RELATIVELY DRY/COOL THOUGH SHOWERS AT TIMES WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE USVI IN THE MORNING AND THEN ACROSS
TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLD TSRA IS
FORECAST ACROSS SW PR...SO VCTS WAS PUT IN TAF FOR TJMZ. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS EARLY IN THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...AT AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS 41047/41048 ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 15 FT SEAS WITH 11
SECOND PERIOD. WAVE CALCULATORS INDICATE THAT 7-8 FT IS LIKELY ON
FRI FOR ATLANTIC WATERS AND BREAKING WAVES MAY REACH 12+ FT ON
NORTH SHORES. SMALL CRAFT AND HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES MIGHT BE
NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE STRONG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD
GIVE A SECONDARY SWELL TRAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 77 87 77 / 20 30 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST THU NOV 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEXT FEW DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST 14/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.29 INCHES THIS MORNING. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT THROUGH 230 PM AST. THIS DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. LATEST
SATELITE IMAGES AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMMS
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS AREA
OF MOISTURE WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. THEREFORE...A LITTLE MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THIS MOISTURE COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS.

DURING THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING WITH IT...CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM EAST
TO NORTHEAST AND NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...MAINLY AT NIGHTS.
IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH VCSH ACROSS TJSJ...TNCM...AND
TKPK OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AFTER 15/19Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL RAPIDLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 8 FEET IN NORTWEST SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 88 78 87 / 30 40 20 10

[cycloneye]

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1005 PM AST THU NOV 14 2013

...HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET BETWEEN 12 TO
15 SECONDS WILL INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES STARTING FRIDAY MORNING. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 10 TO 14 FEET. AS A
RESULT....HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL
BE LIKELY AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS...SWIMMERS AND BEACHGOERS ARE
URGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-150800-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0010.131115T0800Z-131117T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1005 PM AST THU NOV 14 2013

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM
AST SUNDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM
AST SUNDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF...7 TO 8 FEET WAVES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10
TO 14 FEET.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL CREATE ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS. MINOR BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

AGUADILLA HARBOR: 6:44 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.42 FEET.
6:32 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 0.93 FEET.

ARECIBO HARBOR: 6:57 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.92 FEET.
6:43 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 1.25 FEET.

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 7:30 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.79 FEET.
7:00 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 1.18 FEET.

PALOMINOS ISLAND: 7:18 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.89 FEET.
7:09 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 1.38 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 8:12 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.49 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A Cold Front will move thru PR and VI this weekend bringing scattered showers,cooler temperatures and high seas.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 AM AST FRI NOV 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC CARVE OUT A DEEP CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC BY MON. A CDFNT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA SAT NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA NEXT 12 HRS AND ENHANCE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS PRETTY
DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH PW NEAR 2.0 INCHES AND EXTENDING
UP TO ABOUT 600 MB. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER
INLAND VALLEYS. SHOWERS INCREASE SOMEWHAT SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS CDFNT APPROACHES. CDFNT PUSHES QUICKLY
INTO THE CARIB SEA BY MIDDAY SUN WITH COOL AND DRY ADVECTION. A
SECOND REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MON
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL STEADILY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
CNTRL ATLC CUTOFF. SHOWERS EXPECTED MON IN COOL AND UNSTABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW. VERY COOL TUE MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD 60S COASTAL LOCATIONS AND 50S INLAND AND
HIGHER ELEVS. AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY WED AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE NEXT THU AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ
AS WELL AS TIST AND TISX. AFTERNOON SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR BTWN 15/18Z TO 15/22Z..WHICH COULD
AFFECT TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING TODAY THRU TONIGHT 6-8 FT IN NNW SWELLS.
FCST A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN GUIDANCE IS PREDICTING UP TO 10
FT SEAS. HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 77 / 40 20 20 40
STT 87 79 87 79 / 40 10 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST FRI NOV 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC
WILL FLATTEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AND
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AS WELL AS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
EASTERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AT THIS MOMENT NOT SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...INDUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM TAFB DEPICTED A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR
LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO AND LATER ON ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THE SHEAR LINE WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS A GENERALLY COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THUS
EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SUNDAY...MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH VCSH ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK
THIS EVENING. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 16/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 85 / 20 20 40 20
STT 77 87 76 86 / 10 20 40 20

[Macrocane]

We should already be in the dry season but last night there were strong showers and thunderstorms in the country, especially in the capital San Salvador where some small rivers and creeks overflowed and affected neighborhoods and roads. Fortunately only material damages were reported.

Some accumulations registered yesterday:

University of El Salvador, San Salvador 142 mm/5.59 inches This is the 3rd highest 24 hour rainfall of the year in the country.
MARN, San Salvador 65 mm/2.56 inches
Ilobasco 63.8 mm/2.51 inches
Picacho, San Salvador volcano 51 mm/2.00 inches
Jiquilisco 50.2 mm/1.98 inches

The map with yesterday rainfall:



A few pictures showing the flooding:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
920 PM AST FRI NOV 15 2013

.UPDATE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS
MAINTAINED A DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THIS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS TO ONE INCH OF RAIN. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...CAROLINA AND SAN JUAN THIS EVENING. RAINFALL WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRIER AIR
MASS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVE
ACTION AT THE ATLANTIC COASTS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS.
RIP CURRENTS ARE DANGEROUS FOR INEXPERIENCED SURFERS...SWIMMERS
AND BEACH GOERS. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW FL020-FL20
AND ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT TIL AT LEAST 16/13Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR CONDS DUE TO LOW CIGS MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ...TJNR AND TJBQ ... AS
WELL AS TIST AND TISX. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 KTS. PRDS OF MTN TOP OBSCR WILL ALSO
REMAIN PSBL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR DUE
PASSING LOW/LVL SCUD CLDS.

&&

.MARINE...REGIONAL AND LOCAL BUOYS OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN OF 7 TO 9 FEET ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG PERIOD
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS. THEREFORE...HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION AT THE ATLANTIC
COASTS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI as a weak Cold Front moves south thru the area. A second weak Front will pass by Monday bringing more showers ,cooler temperatures and high seas.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST SAT NOV 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MERGES WITH A POLAR TROUGH OVR THE NATLC. A CDFNT WILL SWEEP
THRU THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF EASTERLY WAVE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE ALONG 22N
WILL STEADILY SINK SWD TODAY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST BUT A FEW DEEP CELLS
MAY BE ABLE TO POP UP IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASANT ON SUN
WITH DRY WX BEHIND FROPA. DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN ADVECT
COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR SWD WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EXPECTED MON. SECONDARY SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH MON
NIGHT AND STALL OVR THE CARIB SEA TUE. BDRY DISSIPATES WED AS DEEP
CUTOFF LIFTS OUT AND HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND
WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY BY THU WITH TRADE SHOWERS THU THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNRISE AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN. A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCT SHRA AT JSJ...USVI AND LEEWARD
TERMINALS WITH A POSSIBLE A TSRA AT JPS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH P6SM SKC SUN UNDER A NORTH WIND.
FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS ISX AND KPK SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...FIRST GROUP OF NNW SWELLS HAVE PEAKED WITH A SECOND SET
OF NNE SWELLS ALTHOUGH WEAKER EXPECTED MON ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVR THE NATLC AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRES TO THE NORTHEAST. A THIRD AND LARGER GROUP OF NORTHEAST
SWELLS WILL REACH THE AREA WED THIS ONE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS AND
BEGINS TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SO IT
APPEARS ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 5-DAY FCST
PERIOD WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 84 75 / 20 50 20 50
STT 87 76 85 75 / 20 50 20 40

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey there cycloneye. Just wanted to tell you my wife and I are coming to visit you for 10 days the second or third week of december. How is the weather usually that time of year? Water plenty warm enough to swim in? Will be staying in the luquillo area for half the time then rincon the other half. If you don't mind could you give me the do's and dont's and where to go and not and other good sight seeing/excursion info. We can do this by pm or email, whichever is best.

[cycloneye]

Hey there cycloneye. Just wanted to tell you my wife and I are coming to visit you for 10 days the second or third week of december. How is the weather usually that time of year? Water plenty warm enough to swim in? Will be staying in the luquillo area for half the time then rincon the other half. If you don't mind could you give me the do's and dont's and where to go and not and other good sight seeing/excursion info. We can do this by pm or email, whichever is best.

Hi CM. I sent you by PM the information about Puerto Rico. Enjoy your vacation here.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST SAT NOV 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS
A RESULT...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ISLAND DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM TAFB DEPICTED A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO AND LATER ON ACROSS
THE REST OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SHEAR LINE WILL THEN MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SUNDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...
EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH PASSING SHOWER AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT TJSJ...TISX AND TIST LATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 7 FEET AT 12 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 74 84 / 50 20 50 30
STT 75 86 75 85 / 50 20 40 30