AS: 03A - Tropical Cyclone

[Grifforzer]

deep depression forecast to become a cyclonic storm

The depression over southwest Arabian sea moved westwards, intensified into deep depression and lay centered near 8.0N 53.0E, about 400 km south southeast of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 510 km south southwest of Socotra Island, Yemen (41494) and 2200 km west southwest of Minicoy, Lakshadweep (43369).

The system would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hrs. It would move nearly westwards and cross Somalia coast between 7.0N and 9.0N around Sunday evening.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken low/medium cloud with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over the area between 5.0N to 10.0N and west of 55.0E and Somalia coast. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 12 hrs along the northern periphery. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C.

sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is very rough. The central pressure is 1002 hPa.

[jaguarjace]

I've made a loop for yesterday.

Not an official product from SSD. I created this product for informational purposes.

[Grifforzer]

Well, it tried to become cyclonic storm HELEN..

Time of issue: 1900 hours IST
Dated: 09-11-2013
Bulletin No.: ARB01/2013/04

Sub: Deep Depression over southwest Arabian Sea.

The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved furthur westwards, and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 09th November 2013 near latitude 8.0N and longitude 51.5E, about 350 km south-southeast of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 560 km south-southwest of Socotra Island and 2380 km west-southwest of Minicoy. The system would move nearly westwards and cross Somalia coast between latitude 7.5N and 8.5N around 10th November evening.

Track and intensity forecasts of the system are given in the table below:

Date/Time(IST) Position (Lat.N/ long.E) Maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph) Category
09-11-2013/1730 8.0/51.5 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
09-11-2013/2330 7.9/51.0 55-65GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
10-11-2013/0530 7.8/50.5 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
10-1 1-2013/1130 7.8/50.0 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
10-11-2013/1730 7.8/49.5 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION
11-11-2013/0530 7.8/48.5 40-50 GUSTING TO 55 DEPRESSION
11-11-2013/1730 7.9/47.5 25-35 GUSTING TO 45 LOW

[Meow]

IMD called it ‘Deep Depression Deep’.

[euro6208]

up to 40 knots...

WTIO31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 7.9N 51.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N 51.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 7.8N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 7.9N 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 8.0N 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 8.1N 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 7.9N 51.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH-
OF RAS BINNAH, SOMOLIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A SMALL CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER WHILE THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISPLACED
TO THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
DEFINED LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED 40 KNOTS BASED ON A 090621Z ASCAT PASS
WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW WITH A SMALL POLEWARD PULL FROM THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS BEING COUNTERED BY MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03A IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARD
SOMALIA WITH A POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
THEN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DESPITE SOME
MODELS LOSING THE VORTEX PAST TAU 35 AND BECOMING ERRATIC. DUE TO
THE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z
AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

[hurricanes1234]

This apparently made landfall yesterday over Somalia.

[supercane4867]

Already over 100 fatalities have been reported in Samolia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24896857

[HURAKAN]

NASA TRMM image