Texas Winter 2013-2014
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- amawea
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
I can't believe it! An Alberta clipper coming down and this thread is dead. Hey! 30's for lows for Houston is pretty cold for this date.
Wake up! This may be a prophetic event for how the winter will become.
Wake up! This may be a prophetic event for how the winter will become.
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- vbhoutex
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
If we get the temps that are being forecast for Weds and Thurs we will be coming in with those temps about 3 weeks early. Typical first freeze in Houston metro is early December. IIRC average date of first freeze here is December 12. Harbinger of a colder than normal Winter in SE TX? Who knows? I'm not about to tackle that one yet.
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Here in Baton Rouge, I would not rule out upper 20's Thursday morning if we can get clear skies and no wind. It can get that cold here in early November. In fact the record low around November 4 or 5 was 27 set in 1991. In that winter of 1991-1992 here in Baton Rouge we had about 5 or 6 mornings in November in the mid to upper 20's. However the rest of the winter it never got below 28. While I do not have the time to look at global weather patterns/analogs of that winter, I do note the 1991 tropical season was light with no storms at all in the GOM.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
amawea wrote:I can't believe it! An Alberta clipper coming down and this thread is dead. Hey! 30's for lows for Houston is pretty cold for this date.
Wake up! This may be a prophetic event for how the winter will become.
Most of the discussion about current and upcoming cold weather is still in the fall thread. We don't usually transition to the winter thread unless it's about long range indicators and predictions until December or just after Thanksgiving.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
amawea wrote:I can't believe it! An Alberta clipper coming down and this thread is dead. Hey! 30's for lows for Houston is pretty cold for this date.
Wake up! This may be a prophetic event for how the winter will become.
We're spoiled. It's not news unless we're getting a foot of snow.
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- CaptinCrunch
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D/FW received it's earliest freeze in 13 yrs this morning. it was 30 at the airport and 25 at the house.
Last official freeze this early came Nov 13, 2000. That winter of 2000/2001 recorded 46 freezes with D/FW lowest temp that season of 19
By comparison last winter's first freeze didn't occur till Dec. 10 and the total number of freezes for winter's 2011/2012, and 2012/2013 combined was only 42 with the lowest temp being 23.
I think we are on the right track to seeing a colder and wetter winter than what we have seen the last 2 years.
Last official freeze this early came Nov 13, 2000. That winter of 2000/2001 recorded 46 freezes with D/FW lowest temp that season of 19
By comparison last winter's first freeze didn't occur till Dec. 10 and the total number of freezes for winter's 2011/2012, and 2012/2013 combined was only 42 with the lowest temp being 23.
I think we are on the right track to seeing a colder and wetter winter than what we have seen the last 2 years.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
San Angelo set a record low of 20 yesterday morning. This beat the record of 22 set in 1919! Hope its a sign of things to come.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
It's nice to be back discussing winter weather once again, looks like this thread should start picking up some steam over the next week or two...probably a little earlier than usual. Today's European Model should spark some interest from some on this board.
Euro snowfall forecast over the next 10 days with a big storm forecast to roll through the southern plains in the 8-10 day time frame....
Euro snowfall forecast over the next 10 days with a big storm forecast to roll through the southern plains in the 8-10 day time frame....
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
I would ask you all, respectfully, to keep/make your posts in the Texas Fall thread until we get closer on the calendar to the actual first day of winter. I know we're talking about the prospect of WINTER-like weather ... but we're still in autumn.
This would just make it easier on folks to know which thread to follow closely. Thanks.
This would just make it easier on folks to know which thread to follow closely. Thanks.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
- somethingfunny
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=115695
Link to the Texas Fall thread for those who may be lost.
Link to the Texas Fall thread for those who may be lost.
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
Here we go gang, DJF has come and it's coming in with a BANG. The EPO has reached -100s (-125) and will continue to lower. Depending on how low it will go will determine the severity of the next Arctic outbreak.
5h Anomalies from the major models
The -PDO and -PNA will support a southeast ridge. The core of this cold air mass will be west of the Appalachains and likely be centered over the Rockies and spill out into the Great Plains.
Top analog from CPC superensemble is December 1983
We will have to wait and see what kind of air mass will exist from Siberia to Alaska to Canada. A 1050mb-1060mb high crossing over is very likely. How strong it remains once it slips into the CONUS is another factor of cold strength. With a cyclone depicted to develop over the northern plains probably means a deep, intense cold air mass rather than a shallow one.
HPC SD's prediction show 3SD's+ over Alaska which likely means an equally strong air mass on the opposite end will flow into the states. Where it is centered will likely challenge at the very least daily record lows. Such arctic outbreaks tends to come in a series of fronts one stronger than the next and the models are probably rushing the pattern change.
5h Anomalies from the major models
The -PDO and -PNA will support a southeast ridge. The core of this cold air mass will be west of the Appalachains and likely be centered over the Rockies and spill out into the Great Plains.
Top analog from CPC superensemble is December 1983
We will have to wait and see what kind of air mass will exist from Siberia to Alaska to Canada. A 1050mb-1060mb high crossing over is very likely. How strong it remains once it slips into the CONUS is another factor of cold strength. With a cyclone depicted to develop over the northern plains probably means a deep, intense cold air mass rather than a shallow one.
HPC SD's prediction show 3SD's+ over Alaska which likely means an equally strong air mass on the opposite end will flow into the states. Where it is centered will likely challenge at the very least daily record lows. Such arctic outbreaks tends to come in a series of fronts one stronger than the next and the models are probably rushing the pattern change.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
The question is what will happen after 12-4, it looks after December 21 1983 (anolog for 12-4 as shown by CPC map) the PNA went positive pushing that polar vortex & Arctic High that was in the NW US/SW Canada towards the eastern US.
So far, the ensembles do not show the PNA to go positive so the core of it might stay in the NW US and northern Plains.
So far, the ensembles do not show the PNA to go positive so the core of it might stay in the NW US and northern Plains.
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
SPECIAL MODERATOR NOTICE
We appreciated everyone keeping their comments/posts about last weekend's weather event in the Texas Fall thread, despite the nature of the weather being (for us in Texas, at least) wintery! I had asked everyone to wait until Monday to move over to the winter thread, but like a band of crazy Black Friday shoppers ... y'all have already rushed down the door! In order to avoid confusion, I'm going to stand pat on keeping the Fall thread open until early Monday. I'll lock it down then.
Thanks everyone and I hope that you and your families have a wonderful Thanksgiving!
We appreciated everyone keeping their comments/posts about last weekend's weather event in the Texas Fall thread, despite the nature of the weather being (for us in Texas, at least) wintery! I had asked everyone to wait until Monday to move over to the winter thread, but like a band of crazy Black Friday shoppers ... y'all have already rushed down the door! In order to avoid confusion, I'm going to stand pat on keeping the Fall thread open until early Monday. I'll lock it down then.
Thanks everyone and I hope that you and your families have a wonderful Thanksgiving!
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) can play a huge role in freezes. EPO is like North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Postive EPO and NAO lead to troughing, while Negative EPO and NAO lead to ridging.
Reflecting Back on the Winter Outlook and Recent Spring Trends for 2002-03
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/winter_2002 ... php#eponao
The December 1983 Freeze occurring during positive NAO and AO, while EPO was negative.
Reflecting Back on the Winter Outlook and Recent Spring Trends for 2002-03
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/winter_2002 ... php#eponao
The December 1983 Freeze occurring during positive NAO and AO, while EPO was negative.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Ptarmigan wrote:East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) can play a huge role in freezes. EPO is like North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Postive EPO and NAO lead to troughing, while Negative EPO and NAO lead to ridging.
Reflecting Back on the Winter Outlook and Recent Spring Trends for 2002-03
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/winter_2002 ... php#eponao
The December 1983 Freeze occurring during positive NAO and AO, while EPO was negative.
Also arguably the EPO is more influential in Texas than the NAO and AO. The NAO is more important for the eastern US than here in the southern plains. It does help suppress storm tracks and lock in some cold. The AO is fairly dominant when the other two are not very strong but we've seen it swing both ways, and can be a muddled signal. The EPO is a pretty clear signal when it is 2SD's ore more, negative always sends a cooler air mass and positive sends mild Pacific air no questions asked to Texas. The PNA more or less is an extension of the EPO. If the EPO progresses it will flip the PNA positive and if it retrogrades we'll see -PNA.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Looks like the site is finally working?
wxman57 must have been trying to stop the cold from coming.
wxman57 must have been trying to stop the cold from coming.
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- somethingfunny
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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I dont think this cold is anything like '83 or '89. As of now it doesnt even come close, but this air is modified big time by the pacific and its STILL this cold. It def had the potential to be epic but its not. I dont know of what we could compare it too. Maybe Dec 1990 since it affects the West coast so much.
With that said, if temps typically come in a bit warm, houston will be under the gun. I have to check the analog, but in my young memory, the only ice storm i remember was Feb 1997 where we were locked in ice for about 3 days. I remember being amazed that the temp one day didnt go above 28 and i wrecked my RC car that day while driving around on the ice lol.
With that said, if temps typically come in a bit warm, houston will be under the gun. I have to check the analog, but in my young memory, the only ice storm i remember was Feb 1997 where we were locked in ice for about 3 days. I remember being amazed that the temp one day didnt go above 28 and i wrecked my RC car that day while driving around on the ice lol.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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