ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[euro6208]

it will indeed be a very interesting season in the pacific the next time an el nino comes around especially the west pacific...

[hurricanes1234]

Interesting. 2014 could end up like 2012, where we saw quite a few major hurricanes in EPAC. Excited to see powerful fishes!

[cycloneye]

Recent signs hint of ENSO turning warm and already models are picking up that by forecasting warming by late Spring or early Summer. Here is the CFSv2 model.

[hurricanes1234]

Then 2014 might be fairly active.

[Ntxw]

I think we will get a better idea if a Nino is coming by March. A lot of variables can change through winter, this isn't a good time for models to predict ENSO.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center update of 11/11/13

Nino 3.4 warmed up to 0.0C. Let's see what happens with ENSO in the next few weeks and months to see if El Nino comes after a few years being absent or Neutral prevails for one more year.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Yellow Evan]

^It's been roughly 4 years without a true El Nino. I wouldn't call 2012 an EN year because Nino 3.4 rapidly went cooler by December after a short period within EN level. This year is clearly cool neutral. I think the chance of El Nino increases as we've had more years coming without a true El Nino.

Last 2009, activity in the WPAC was not very high for an ACTUAL EL NIÑO, with 22 tropical storms which 11 became typhoons.

Last year [2012], was more active, with 25 tropical storms which 14 became typhoons.

I can't even believe that it was El Nino last 2009. EPAC only had 8 canes. WPAC ACE was only 266 compared to 2012's ACE - 300.


Was last year warm neutral?

Those are 10 min average totals...

here are the storms totals for both years (1 min)

2009- 23 Tropical Storms 15 Typhoons 7 Major Typhoons- 266

2012- 25 Tropical Storms 16 Typhoons 10 Major Typhoons- 300

The el nino in 2009 was more of an modoki type so maybe that explains the slow activity in the EPAC.

2009 PHS was anything but slow. 20 storms is tied for highiest since 1992.

[hurricanes1234]

Very interesting - 2014 is trending towards an El Niño or at least warm neutral. I wonder, does this mean we see more fish storms far from land like Gil and Henriette this year? Or does this mean more storms that affect landmasses?

[Yellow Evan]

Very interesting - 2014 is trending towards an El Niño or at least warm neutral. I wonder, does this mean we see more fish storms far from land like Gil and Henriette this year? Or does this mean more storms that affect landmasses?

Both in a sense. Less weak storms off of Baja, storms that affect land are stronger.

[euro6208]

when was the last time a modoki and eastern based el nino happen?

[Ptarmigan]

when was the last time a modoki and eastern based el nino happen?

Modoki
2009-2010

Eastern Equatorial
2006-2007

[cycloneye]

The November update of the ENSO models continue to forecast Neutral conditions thru the 2014 Spring.



Read here the long technical discussion

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2013 brought an unusually high number of storms in the West Pacific. Isn't this the same of what happened during 1996?

[euro6208]

2013 brought an unusually high number of storms in the West Pacific. Isn't this the same of what happened during 1996?

i'm not sure but it's about time the wpac delivered a true wpac season compared to the last few years. Many people don't realize how active the wpac can be. Seasons like this is very common and more active seasons have been recorded...

The early 90's saw high levels of activity with an extraordinary end to the 1997 season. This season is nothing compared to those years.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 11/25/13 update

Nino 3.4 warms up to +0.1C and is the first time in 7 months that it reaches the Warm Neutral status.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[hurricanes1234]

Maybe next year will really be an active Pacific season! We've reached Warm Neutral.

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[cycloneye]

The Aussies continue to forecast Neutral ENSO at least thru the 2014 Northern Hemisphere Spring.

ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the tropical Pacific

Issued on Tuesday 3 December 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen steeply over the past two weeks; this is partially an effect of monsoon activity over Darwin. International climate models indicate that the tropical Pacific will remain neutral at least through to the austral autumn.

POAMA model.



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[hurricanes1234]

I'm sticking with the possibility that next year could be relatively active in EPAC because of warm neutral. I think it will have a much higher ACE than this year in that basin. Let's see if SSTs warm some more.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 12/5/13 update

Neutral thru the 2014 summer but they add that El Nino has increasing chances to develop by that time.

The majority of model forecasts indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014. While current forecast probabilities are still greatest for ENSO-neutral by mid-summer, there is an increasing chance for the development of El Niño.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 12/9/13 update

Nino 3.4 went up to +0.2C



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf