WPAC: PODUL - Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

heaving rains battering mindanao...

20131111 1430 6.1 -129.4 T1.0/1.0 90W 90W

[somethingfunny]

It doesn't have to be an organized tropical cyclone to cause flooding.

[stormkite]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90W POSITION : 7.2N 130.8E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------


00UTC 12.11.2013 7.9N 127.5E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.11.2013 11.8N 116.0E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.11.2013 13.2N 111.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

(13.2N 111.0E = VIETNAM )

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS product

[cycloneye]

Still a TD as it gets closer to Mindanao. Thankfully it has not gotten more stronger than a TD but still plenty of rain will fall in that area.


TD
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 12 November 2013
<Analyses at 12/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°00'(7.0°)
E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°40'(8.7°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[CrazyC83]

Is it supposed to recurve back towards the central Philippines?

[stormkite]

Westernpacificweather.com

Cebu Radar shows showers approaching from Zoraida

Today the main topic though is the new Tropical Depression that is approaching the Philippines from the South East with an expected landfall Tuesday morning. The exact location of this new system named Zoraida by PAGASA does not mean much given its disorganized structure. The main threat will be heavy rainfall across the southern half of the country brought in by easterly winds along the north edge of the storms circulation. Samar and Leyte some of the worst hit areas following Haiyan / Yolanda could receive heavy rainfall and gale force winds near the coast throughout the day on Tuesday.

Given the fact that thousands remain homeless following the storms wrath even a little bit of foul weather could bring harsh conditions to the region. The risk of further flooding will also be a threat across much of Visayas as some areas see up to 150-200mm of rainfall.

Once again this new storm by no means will be a Typhoon, but a wind and rain maker it will.


After the Philippines Zoraida shows the potential to intensify further by late in the week and possibly impact Vietnam.



Westernpacificweather.com

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 131112 0000 7.3N 126.6E WPAC 20 1003



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N
136.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 473 NM EAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. AN 111231Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
OFF TO THE WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. AN 111231Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 111700) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Windy and rainy here!

[stormkite]

Windy and rainy here!

Waves to xtyphooncyclonex good to see your about m8.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Windy and rainy here!

Waves to xtyphooncyclonex good to see your about m8.

What do you mean m8?

[stormkite]

Windy and rainy here!

Waves to xtyphooncyclonex good to see your about m8.

What do you mean m8?

Aussie lingo for friend. When we see someone we know we usually greet them with G'day mate = friend. M8 is just the internet short cut for mate. Sorry to confuse you.


HERE'S the latest data. 90w
2013NOV11 215700 2.5 997.0 +0.0 35.0 2.5 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -12.93 -25.16

[cycloneye]

Still a TD at 18:00 UTC.

TD
Issued at 19:15 UTC, 12 November 2013
<Analyses at 12/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°25'(9.4°)
E121°40'(121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°35'(10.6°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

TCFA Reissued...

WTPN21 PGTW 121700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121651Z NOV 13//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 121700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3N 125.1E TO 10.2N 118.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 124.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N
129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 121140Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WESTERN QUADRANTS OF
THE SYSTEM. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS ALSO SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WIND BARBS AND ISOLATED 25 KNOT WIND BARBS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5
TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131700Z.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

at least it's trying ...

KNES and PGTW has this at 1.0...

[stormkite]

Looks to be at TS intensity atm.

2013NOV13 085700 3.7 983.1 +2.3 59.0 3.7 3.8 3.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF

Could not find ascat to see if its closed off completely.?

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N
124.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
WEST. A 130020Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE UNDERLINES THE POORLY
ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
A STRONG BIAS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE WEAK
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

disorganized...

TPPN10 PGTW 131228

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (NW OF MINDANAO)

B. 13/1130Z

C. XX.X

D. XXX.X

E. N/A/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


UEHARA


TXPQ26 KNES 131529
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 13/1430Z

C. 12.0N

D. 117.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...1332Z MHS IMAGE SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. CENTER IS SHEARED LESS
THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM THE CONVECTION IN EIR IMAGERY AT 1430Z RESULTING
IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[stormkite]

disorganized...

TPPN10 PGTW 131228

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (NW OF MINDANAO)

B. 13/1130Z

C. XX.X

D. XXX.X

E. N/A/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


UEHARA


TXPQ26 KNES 131529
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 13/1430Z

C. 12.0N

D. 117.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...1332Z MHS IMAGE SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. CENTER IS SHEARED LESS
THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM THE CONVECTION IN EIR IMAGERY AT 1430Z RESULTING
IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

Thanks euro btw do you have the link for the ascat.

[weathernerdguy]

it looks like a classic TD or low end TS

[stormkite]

To many waves of dry air air north.