Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

Good Q & A with Chris Landsea

[HurrMark]

Wikipedia shows 30 ACE, but I wonder if that is rounded. Policlimate has 28.55, which would mean an average ACE of 2.38 - more than a full point below 1970.

[Kitrin]

I agree with the previous poster (I cannot find the post to quote it, sorry) who thinks that there is some unknown cycle or oscillation, whether terrestrial or not (e.g. solar, magnetic, other?) that is not factored into our current seasonal forecasts. This is just my undereducated, gut feeling opinion.

Kitrin

[HurricaneBill]

I'm wondering if this is some kind of "pseudo" El Nino or something.

[FireRat]

While the Atlantic is all nice and quiet like a lamb, we have a killer wolf lurking over in the WPAC. Jesus, now I understand how the Earth balances itself out even more, with all the calm there had to be an output of energy somewhere. That is now the Philippines, God Bless them from that 195 MPH monster they're experiencing right now!

Anyway, back on topic, who knows with this month of November. Maybe we get 1 more in the Caribbean? This is such a wild month!

[hurricanes1234]

While the Atlantic is all nice and quiet like a lamb, we have a killer wolf lurking over in the WPAC. Jesus, now I understand how the Earth balances itself out even more, with all the calm there had to be an output of energy somewhere. That is now the Philippines, God Bless them from that 195 MPH monster they're experiencing right now!

Anyway, back on topic, who knows with this month of November. Maybe we get 1 more in the Caribbean? This is such a wild month!

Nothing more from here in my opinion. I strongly believe this season is finished, in both the Atlantic and East Pacific. The West Pacific is probably making up for what has been non-existent elsewhere, with the formation of 195 mph Haiyan and with an extremely active October (more than five typhoons that all exceeded Category 1 strength). The West Pacific has been very active for the past few months, but on the other end of the spectrum, we have the Atlantic, which has been ill from the Sahara Dust Virus. There were two hurricanes for the whole year, and even though it doesn't officially end until this month is over, I still think it's done. I'd say there's a 75-80% chance we end at Lorenzo, while the West Pacific continues to work overtime to at least bring our yearly ACE to reasonable or near-average levels. Of course, this is just my ameteur view on things.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

I think it's time to officially call the season over and dead, even model storms are nonexistent now. Shear is rampant and westerlies abound from the Gulf, Caribbean, and MDR.

A couple of points about the 2013 Atlantic season. It was not a front end season nor back end season, it was a 2 week season in mid September.

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- 2013 Will finish at or below 30 ACE units, 28.55 if nothing else forms based on which source you use which is 4th or 5th place. We have not had a bottom 5 year since 1994 and not a sub 30 year since 1983 which was 30 years ago. ACE per storm will be the lowest on record.

- 12/2/0 is where it stands, don't think anybody who voted could imagined this would be the case and even came close if you included the hurricane count

- 2013 had 2 minimal cat 1 Hurricanes. I cannot find a year in the modern era of a season that did not include at least a cat 2 or higher. There were no Major Hurricanes or even came close.

- 2013 joined 2002 for latest formation of a hurricane (satellite era) by date. However Humberto did manage to form a few hours before the official record.

Wxman57 should consider bringing out bones to a season that wasn't. As quiet as it was, it was a rarity. The factors that came to play made this year an anomaly and probably will not happen again next year. Such extreme low ace only comes by a handful times and we will likely not witness something of this nature again this decade.

[blp]

You need to package this season like 2005 at opposite extremes of the spectrum something we may not see again in our lifetime.

I think it's time to officially call the season over and dead, even model storms are nonexistent now. Shear is rampant and westerlies abound from the Gulf, Caribbean, and MDR.

A couple of points about the 2013 Atlantic season. It was not a front end season nor back end season, it was a 2 week season in mid September.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 2013 Will finish at or below 30 ACE units, 28.55 if nothing else forms based on which source you use which is 4th or 5th place. We have not had a bottom 5 year since 1994 and not a sub 30 year since 1983 which was 30 years ago. ACE per storm will be the lowest on record.

- 12/2/0 is where it stands, don't think anybody who voted could imagined this would be the case and even came close if you included the hurricane count

- 2013 had 2 minimal cat 1 Hurricanes. I cannot find a year in the modern era of a season that did not include at least a cat 2 or higher. There were no Major Hurricanes or even came close.

- 2013 joined 2002 for latest formation of a hurricane (satellite era) by date. However Humberto did manage to form a few hours before the official record.

Wxman57 should consider bringing out bones to a season that wasn't. As quiet as it was, it was a rarity. The factors that came to play made this year an anomaly and probably will not happen again next year. Such extreme low ace only comes by a handful times and we will likely not witness something of this nature again this decade.

[TheStormExpert]

We may be out of the active era so never say never!

[blp]

:uarrow: We may be out of the active era so never say never!

Even in the previous inactive era this kind of season was quite rare. I would also add that this year does not qualify for a return to the inactive years due to the continued above normal SST's that have been present since 1995, once we see a shift in that area I would start to believe it.

[hurricanes1234]

This season is done in my opinion. Now it's just a couple more weeks to go before it officially and finally ends and becomes the least active season in decades. As Ntwx said, even model storms are non-existent now. More forecast than reality.

[Ptarmigan]

Even in the previous inactive era this kind of season was quite rare. I would also add that this year does not qualify for a return to the inactive years due to the continued above normal SST's that have been present since 1995, once we see a shift in that area I would start to believe it.

Very true. Seasons with no major hurricanes are very rare even in cool phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In the cool phase from 1970 to 1994, there were three seasons with no major hurricanes; 1972, 1986, and 1994. Of course, there have been back to back inactive seasons during cool phase like 1982 to 1983, 1986 to 1987, or 1993 to 1994. There have been seasons with no major hurricanes during the last active phase prior to this one from 1926 to 1969. The seasons with no major hurricanes were 1937, 1940, and 1968. However, 1937 and 1940 had no satellites, so we are not certain.

Usually following an inactive season during warm phase of Atlantic, it is active, like 1969 or 1995, which had following season that was very active. If that is the case, I suspect 2014 will be an active one. I rarely see more than three back to back active seasons, those being 2003 to 2005 or 2010 to 2012.

[WeatherGuesser]

OK, so the chairs are up on the tables and the floor is being mopped. A few bar stools are still available just in case something drops in before Last Call.

[hurricanes1234]

OK, so the chairs are up on the tables and the floor is being mopped. A few bar stools are still available just in case something drops in before Last Call.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

yeah, and now is the time that the staff make their plans for an after-hours gathering somewhere, to share a drink and make fun of the patrons that did show up that night.

[Hurricane_Luis]

This season is definatly over and dead. Time to look to the 2014 Season.

[CrazyC83]

2014 will be a VERY difficult season to predict. We have not had back-to-back quiet seasons since 1993-94.

[tolakram]

2014 will be a VERY difficult season to predict. We have not had back-to-back quiet seasons since 1993-94.

Yea but honestly, as I'm sure you know, that fact is meaningless. I've been harping on this for years, but statistically we just don't have enough accurate data to predict any meaningful trends. If we did, well we wouldn't be surprised anymore.

[cycloneye]

2014 will be a VERY difficult season to predict. We have not had back-to-back quiet seasons since 1993-94.

The experts will try to figure out how 2014 may be as there are many factors involved. ENSO will be the enigma.

[euro6208]

2014 will be a VERY difficult season to predict. We have not had back-to-back quiet seasons since 1993-94.

completely agree...el nino might show up next year slowing activity down but who would have predicted this weird season without el nino?